JustinRP37

Those error bars are mighty large. I wouldn’t put much faith in any pattern from the models over 10 days out warm or cold as we have consistently seen. I’ve eaten a lot of crow this year already thinking December would be average and January slightly above. Once December was so warm I didn’t anticipate such a huge reversal given the models. They have not been good in the long range. My advice, roll with it. We had a great winter storm today and January has been a true winter month which has been amazing. Honestly looking at the pattern I think February will be around average (given DJF and average overall temp) and a cooler March. That’s my two cents for now.

Yeah it is already insane. I wanted to go to Ski Sundown to teach my son since I learned there but they sold out on Thursday for Sunday lift tickets. I expect tomorrow to be very busy at Mohawk with this Aspen-like powder. Hopefully my son loves it. We played all day, so I have a feeling he will have a great day. Loved ice skating last weekend!

What a storm. Rode it out in Central CT with my parents so we can take my son to Mohawk Mountain tomorrow to get him on skis. He is 3 and loving the snow. Great storm and nobody tainted! Downright cold now!

Did someone really try to say the GFS was right with this storm? If we all listened to the GFS then all the metro would have needed is some salt for the roads. The GFS was not right with the low placement until it started to cave. Euro was much better. And the model outputs we’re okay except when people looked at kuchera which exaggerated the totals as usual. Oh and it is still going to snow for awhile…

After looking at the models the past few days, I think they need a 5 day covid quarantine. They have to be sick with how they handled this system. Maybe we should try the good old system restart haha. Still it is turning out to be quite a fun storm.

I don’t think NWS is using Kuchera amounts…

And we also could still be. The two lows is interesting but may not be correct.

It's why I feel comfortable saying 6-10. Could adjust up or down though. If I had to guess, and say if it is more likely to go up or down, I would say up based on the atmosphere. However, I feel comfortable with 6-10.

I mean I'm not that sad...

I like 6-10 for the city, quickly dropping off west and especially in NW NJ. Westchester I like 6-10 and towards the 10 south and east. Fairfield County 8-14, more towards Bridgeport, and then that is where we pick up more. NW CT I think is in the 4-10 range. One thing is for certain, this storm is a pain in the a to the double s. I do not like this one bit.

It is kind of funny that you can predict just who will post based on what the models are showing. Not as much snow leads to one set of posters, more snow leads to others. The true winners are the one that practice meteorology over modelorogy. This is still a significant event for the majority of the subforum. Please don't downplay it just because you live west. There is still time before this begin and we have seen some dramatic shift both positive and negative as a storm starts to bomb.

East of what part of 287? 287 is a loop from Port Chester through Central Jersey. I’d say from the western side of 287 east we see clear warning level snows.

Way too many people saying East before a run has even printed. Please think before you type. It’s getting ridiculous. We have clearly seen some good output today.

Again most models are still showing this to be a decent storm for NYC and eastern metro. This will likely bring NYC up to the season average for the date, which is pretty good seeing where we are this season. People need to stop acting like this won't be a storm unless we get 2+ feet.

The people saying it is the same, please make an appointment with an eye doctor. Then take a course on geography.

No you don’t. Then we would have very boring weather.

Rockland I think is less, but Westchester should still see 4-8 with eastern Westchester doing the best. It will still be a fun day I think.

I don't know... Population wise, I'd say far more people are in the snow zone than out of it. Long Island and coastal CT are definitely in our forum area and the metropolitan area. As is coastal NJ. Sorry for the inland, north and west folks.

This run is still fantastic for MOST of the Metro Area. Everyone needs to practice some meditation and breath. Looking at the snow maps that will still be a day with many airline cancellations and travel disruptions. It will be a perfect day to head outside and enjoy a snowfall! Who knows, maybe once we really start seeing more data, the models will shift a bit west. No amount of getting upset will change the weather.

Holy crap we cancel storms now if they are less than 2 feet? A 3-8 inch snowfall is STILL a significant amount of snow for the metro area. Granted we all want a blockbuster, but let's get real. This is a nice storm still in an otherwise dry winter. It looks to bring NYC up to AVERAGE for the time of year for snowfall.

Sometimes having too many cooks in the kitchen is not a good thing. Even worse having all those cooks in the kitchen making for for 4+ days later. We want models to go out further yet their predictive power goes down exponentially the further out they go.

Honestly, don't pour concrete in February. You won't have a period of sustained 27+ temperatures and pouring when cold substantially increases the risk of cracking. It is 100% not worth it for an investment of this size. Even if February torches to daytime temps of 45+, nights can still be cold to frigid.

Rank the following: Winter, snow, cold, warm, baseball, and beach. I know you are big into baseball so I'm curious to see your ranking of these!

We have already seen snow this month and we aren't far from normal January snowfall... For the season we are still below average, but I am personally impressed that there is still snow on the ground in Armonk in most wooded areas from the earlier storm.

I’m just saying it is interesting to see MJO with the snow goggles, you with the sunglasses, and the majority of people discussing various results from cold to warm although there is a slight cold bias overall. No offense to anyone haha