JakkelWx

We are about to get rocked.

All that this OFB is doing so far is producing broken up clouds that never make it to storm status and just fall apart.

Looks like there may be 2 main areas of development: DC - SEPA, and the eastern shore into Delaware as there's two OFBs about to collide over the DE Bay as mentioned earlier.

Radar showing 2 outflow boundaries heading towards each other over the DE bay.

Hardly a CU field at all here as well, meh.

Flooding rescues happening in Philly currently

Craven/Brooks SigSvr up to 40 in SEPA with 30+ all around the area along with a wide expanse of 4,500 J/kg SBCAPE/3000-3500 MLCAPE and DCAPE values 900-1100.

No FFW here, probably because of abnormally dry conditions raising FFG

Lifted indices of -10 in northern DE and a small spot of 5,000 SBCAPE as well. I see turkey tower clouds everywhere.

Could be a big day for thunderstorms over here on both the NAM and the latest HRRR runs. SBCAPE values of 5500 - 6000 J/kg (something I have not seen in a very long time). Would be an absolute bummer to waste that much CAPE today.

Nice storms popping up to my west.

What year during the 2000s and 2010s had the most severe weather during the month of July, and how is that year different from this year in regards to upper air patterns, ENSO, etc

Chesapeake bay shields activated for the cell that was crossing over the bay towards me.

Highest SBCAPE values in a long time, pocket of 4,000 J/kg centered right over me. Forecast has the highest chance of precip late tonight.

Just realized that a storm is passing D.C to the north. I can barely focus after I just had a DFH 120 min

I'm wondering if any surprise storms develop this afternoon, there is a healthy CU field and it looks like they're trying for vertical growth

There seems to be another line forming W of DC. Maybe a repeat of last night's line of storms here?

Pocket of 3000 J/kg of CAPE just to my north. Outflow boundary showing up on satellite from storms that have fizzled to my south.

Low level lapse rates are around 7.5 - 8 here but the mid level lapse rates are meager.

Already a cumulus field popping over my house today. Last night produced far better than I thought it would. It was premature to call this a bust. Today looks like a flooding and a lightning threat.

No SVR watch here yet, and there probably won't be. How lame can these threats get??

Lame... line is going to completely miss to the north here. We drought.

ANOTHER AOI and it's only May 28th. Third one. 30/30. Chances are pretty low for development, and if development occurs, it will likely be subtropical in nature. Can you imagine if Cristobal formed right before June 1st, making it the third named pre-season storm? Either way, possibly a grim sign of what's to come during peak hurricane season. Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 725 PM EDT Thu May 28 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the area of low pressure over the central Atlantic. 1. A surface trough and associated upper-level disturbance are producing disorganized shower activity and gusty winds over the central Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east-southeast of Bermuda. Gradual development of this system is possible, and it could acquire some subtropical characteristics on Friday and Saturday as it moves generally northward. Development is not expected after that time due to unfavorable environmental conditions. For additional information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 9 AM EDT Friday, or earlier if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

AMATT All March All The Time, except when it isn't AMATT, its AHATT from late May - early October.