thanks for the reply friend and progressive was the wrong word to use, from experience imby big dogs usually have some combination of early high ratio fgen and lake effect/enhancement in addition to whatever what main synoptic setup delivers. Both don't really look in play here and with marginal early thermals some of the early qpf is going to trash which leaves us dependent on the sub 980 slp to make the dream happen, not saying it can't happen but doesn't feel like a lot of wiggle room here
on the plus side, patterns seem to lock in so hoping this flip is legit and we can get a train of cutters going for once