Malacka11

13 minutes ago, migratingwx said:

EPS mean also went up since the 18z run.

00z vs 18z below

Doing jah's work with these wbell posts

No stop you're supposed to be depressing quit it before this autistic obsession actually becomes enjoyable again 

Good runs on both the gfs and gem

11 minutes ago, Radtechwxman said:

GFS still not playing nice on 18z

It's definitely at least a slight reversal though, right? I would say (just looking at my blues and greens ofc) that the front end of this threaded event looks a bit stronger and the possible follow-up event is also back. The overall synoptic evolution looks somewhat closer to what other models are showing. Combined with what chi storm was saying that's good enough for me

2 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

I see the AI model referenced frequently.  Is this publicly available or behind a paywall?

If it's at all helpful, I know that Tropical Tidbits offers some euro AI data with Pivotal Weather having a more extensive selection of publicly available products, including basic snowfall output for the euro AI and maybe its ensemble. 

https://beta.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf_aifs/sn10_acc-imp/conus?run=2025112412&forecastHour=156

@A-L-E-K How is it

Looks pretty good out there over the layke atm

Moved east almost to the border of cook and dupage. Obv still not near ground zero but it would be cool to get in on something. Maybe if round 1 does okay this far inland and then the band drifting down from the WI border also makes it to us for a bit, we could get the ground full white for the afternoon. Congrats Alek/downtown gang, mclovin it for you

With how the tools available to the most amateur precip output model watchers have improved the last few years, it would be great to get to actually track something worthwhile again

49 minutes ago, Geoboy645 said:

Fortunately there are several indications that we are about to end up in a much more active pattern potentially starting next week. And with a still well-above average Gulf, could get interesting here for storms. The fact that, unless something stupid happens, we are going to have a Gulf like that with no TCs to cool it down before storm season kicks up is going to make things interesting for moisture availability the next couple months imo.

Finally someone throws a fucking bone around here thank you

Kind of thankful to get a chance to do it again because I'm not exaggerating when I say my backyard got split by probably less than a couple kilometers both east and west. 

Looks like a decent hit incoming 

Dude wow that's beautiful 

I was kind of salty about having to mow the lawn after it rains all afternoon but hoo boy does it feel fucking way better out there now

11 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

@Malacka11this is your moment

That's crazy bro I was literally pulling up here to post how I'm in Glendale Heights and will therefore be missing the very first direct bullseye of MBY so far this year. Hopefully @Chicago Storm comes through with the shelf pics later 

Got some ok boomer energy going on this morning at least but

Sigma model

From the last mesoscale discussion:

"In the presence of 20-30 kt west-southwesterly mean ambient flow, moderately strong easterly updraft inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by CAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg seems likely to  maintain current convective intensities at least to the the  southwestern shores of Lake Michigan. As long as this continues,  westerly rear inflow probably will remain sufficiently strong to contribute to strong to severe surface gusts in downdrafts."

Guess we'll see about that lmao

Looks like maybe we'll get some drought mitigation the next day or two after all?

Planning to go back to Warren Dunes on the 5th. Was there for the first time this year on the very first day of this recent heat wave. It was already pretty decent. Since then, water temps have risen an additional like 7 degrees. 

5 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

sharing the road with these people

 

Just imagine... One minute you're doom scrolling your way down the road and then next thing you know not only do you need at bare minimum a new windshield but a camera crew is there recording your ass. 

Still beats dying ig

This cooldown is bullshit.

Dude fuck that's awful

Obviously my hopes are not up for any storms locally but I figure we might catch some cool sunset views between the dust and anything that does manage to spring up in sight right