Malacka11

Looks like if we're lucky, maybe someone gets a chance at squeezing something out of a clipperish thang next Thursdayish. Hopefully no mixing issues with that 

Unless I'm missing something, precip looks to end mostly around here within the next two hours. Maybe some backside snow overnight, and it's a wrap. It's nice that the morning thump actually delivered; it's the only thing keeping this storm from being an L instead of just an L. 

Just now, mimillman said:

We are still RN- here

Same but it gives me hope, likely misplaced ofc

Is the changeover being shown down south legit or just a blip?

1 minute ago, Roger Smith said:

Latest thoughts ... Rather slow improvements will return to n IL as n.w. lobe of dual low is slowly robbed of warmth, better snow rates will return to Chicago after 6 pm and peak around midnight as wind backs to NE then NNE. Further south in IL, done for a while then picks up to moderate snow and blowing snow around 7-9 pm. ... Northern IN holds on to heavy wet snow for a while, dry slots, brief rain/snow mix, eventually N to NW winds bring in lake effect after midnight, blizzard conditions for a while SBN to La Porte. 

Into w Michigan, slow saturation of surface layers will result in gradual irregular increase in rates until S+ by the time primary low is near FWA and secondary is near s end of Lake Michigan late afternoon-evening, then periods of S+ merging eventually with SW+ from lake effect by morning. That will be the general scenario east to Jackson-Ann Arbor, interval of heavy wet snow likely in Detroit around 5-7 pm and after that intermittent light snow with brief moderate snowfall in decaying lake effect. 

Wisconsin, apart from some mixing issues at lakefront south of Racine-Kenosha, will get into bands of heavy snow separated by light to moderate, slowly accumulating to reach 12-15 in totals. Winds will increase from northeast and at least blizzard conditions in open rural areas if not all areas. N lower Michigan will rock as discussed in thread.

Don't see total bust for MSP but 1-2" blowing around in very cold wind, instead of 4-6" not all that different, would not want to be out in it by tonight (at my location, crystal clear and -8 F at 9:30 PST). 

Toronto area I would agree with what I read earlier, 5-10 cm this evening, snow, sleet and/or ice pellet showers could include thunder. 

For many in IL it will be a case of two storm periods and a long pause lasting rest of daylight hours but part two could be quite intense as well. Gradient around secondary low tightens rapidly after about 21z.  

I'll take what you're selling gladly but I'm a little skeptical of much accumulation later

3 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

I have some sort of precip falling, but through the window I cannot tell if it is rain or sleet. 

Drizzling slightly over here. If whatever precip does develop overhead falls as not rain that'd be great 

2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Cromartie's revenge 

I mean in a twisted sort of way I suppose it's our revenge no

Precip starting to blossom rather rapidly downstream. Would be nice to fill in the hole, maybe keep some snow going for a little while longer. The western dry edge has reached us now but there's some impressive stuff a little south that might be trying to veer off just long enough to clip us again. Winds are still strong, you know the house crunching shakey type.

I'm no expert but it looks like the dry spot is already starting to saturate a bit

Winds are absolutely howling here 

Closing in on 4" over here

Idk how later in the day will go but I have not experienced a snow that feels like this since probably GHD I? Like you know when you look out the window and it's not just that it's snowing hard, it's literally like a Rottweiler on sarms is grinning back at you?

Got up all hyped to look at these weenie returns out the window but my window is literally covered in snow. Looks wild though. If it could just do this for the next 18 hours that would be swag

The old Gyro is back SE 

From LOT

 

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024

The winter storm is now on our doorstep this evening as we
continue to monitor upstream trends. Impressive dynamics over a
large footprint across the central CONUS are becoming evident via
radar and satellite imagery with a blossoming baroclinic leaf
across the MO/mid-MS valleys and rapidly developing convection
across OK/AR. The congealing area of both custers of upstream
convection will align well with substantial moisture transport and
deep isentropic ascent into the CWA concurrent with a contracting
low to mid-level baroclinic zone late tonight into mid-morning
Friday. A resulting impressive F-Gen signal with slowing northward
extent combined with 7C/km 700-400 hPa lapse rates yields some
concern that 1-2"/hr snowfall will become common within the precip
shield well into Friday morning. The embedded convective elements
within the precip shield (and perhaps a stray rumble of thunder
south of the Chicago metro) supports increasing forecast snowfall
totals through at least late morning Friday. The incoming 00Z CAM
suite is in surprisingly good agreement that 1hr QPF rates will
reach 0.1-0.2" per hour for several hours into the Chicago metro
between 4-9am. Even with SLR values potentially as low as 5-7:1,
snowfall totals of 3-5" of very wet snow would not be surprising
in just a few hours.

No changes to headlines were made with the updates as the bulk of
increase in the snowfall forecast is within the ongoing Winter
Storm Warnings. But we will continue to highlight the potentially
very hazardous morning commute across all of northern Illinois and
especially within the Chicago metro.

Kluber

Not that it means shit but love the rain/snow line crashing south run to run on the HRRR. Did that last time too ofc

3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

18z Euro with the bump NW.

Wisconsin gets the goods. up into N-L. Michigan.

Pics or it didn't happen

Just now, SchaumburgStormer said:

You didn’t believe hard enough. This bunker runs on weenie dreams and NAM clown maps

I'm all in. I actually never left lol I was just chillin in the back under the pong table. Does that mean I owe you like a week's rent?

A lot of CAMs seem to feature a pretty strong band on the very tail end of the storm, wonder how that would be with strong winds and the cold rushing in. 

50 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Helped clean the secondary roads up a good bit ahead of the next round. Me and my FWD sedan will appreciate that as my commute is short but follows a quite hilly, curvy road.

The old Tornado Intercept Shitbox and I had quite the time in the slush the other day. Tomorrow will give me a run for my money... 

1 minute ago, Possum said:

This feels like a dumb question but can anyone give me odds on a 9:30am flight on Saturday out of Midway happening? I’ve got some nephews in Dallas who are excited to see me, but the thought of trying to dig out that morning and make it from Humboldt Park to Midway just to sit around through delays and possibly cancellation instead of being cozy at home is stressing me out.


.

@Stebo is your guy to ask but unless this thing flops like a fish there's no way you wouldn't at least be delayed substantially I would think

Got that "calm before the storm" vibe going on out there 

2 minutes ago, Paulie21 said:

There's a good consensus on the morning stuff really ripping across NE IL at ~12Z
Very strong lift nearly maxing out in the shallow DGZ and then some. Steep lapse rates above 700mb with a hint of some frontogenetic banding. Truly cannot rule out some TSSN in this weenie band. Gonna be snow globing right in time for morning commute. 
Edit: Also, just looked at bufkit, some near 0 EPV in a large portion of this column for a couple hours.

What's your take on how far north the warmth pushes thereafter, if you don't mind?

1 minute ago, Baum said:

stared at snow in the lights for hours as a kid. Best Christmas gift at 5 was a weather radio. checked out every tornado/hurricane book in the library in grade school-at once. They came looking for me. By college I was calling and talking to skilling about every incoming storm. Dude, took about every call. By early adulthood I despised the late great Jerry Taft and his 1-3" storm calls....than the internet came and I discovered this chaotic lunacy.

Those must be some good memories to have of talking to Skilling personally. Sounds like he's a great guy. I feel like I certainly missed out on the heyday of weather fanaticism but at least I'm here now even if things are a lot quieter than they were. 

2 minutes ago, Baum said:

I'm figuring 6" easy. Not going to sweat it. In RC I trust.

That's where I'm at too. If I can get the night wfh that would be a win for me.