Malacka11

On 2/4/2026 at 10:59 AM, Malacka11 said:

Yeah basically looks like the rest of the season can be written off at this point.  First torch is already locked in and after that I'd rather just save the ol' climo luck points for next season 

what I'd give to be able to reexperience GHD with the capacity to appreciate it to the extent it deserved

Relatively fresh-off-the-boat yung malakuh simultaneously didn't know such a thing was possible nor how rare it was for here 

32 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Always nice when tracking a system 3 days away and wondering if it will even exist.

Idk how that ended up feeling like it's the status quo lately but it's tough fs

Quite literally

joshing and joeking and baiting aside, I would love to see our lot try and survive just a single turbo feast/famine NE season.  I've lost count of the number of mega dawgs they've had pop up well within kinda-not-fantasy-range only to go poof at ~100 hours just in '26.  Yes I know you gotta live with it if you want 58734" Cat 8 slablizzard chances fives times a year in the first place, but that's exactly the problem. Shit cannot be for the faint of heart.  I'm usually over it all by the second average-dawg rug pull of the season. Could you imagine going entire seasons with it literally hardly snowing and barely even a single head fake event, only to spend the very next year getting through like half a dozen possible major events that (irrespective of actual synoptic setup quality) show up well within reality range, with each one hanging around just long enough to trend away again?  I think I'd probably be working for Exxon Mobil within two years.

27 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

Definitely too early, even for crocuses, which are typically the first spring flower to bloom. I see what appears to be a step in the background, I assume they are close to a structure?

I definitely have some popping up, I noticed on Monday, but they're next to my house on the south-facing side, so not terribly surprised. 

Those are actually really interesting points, thanks. I believe that's straight up the foundation of the house and (for anything it's worth) I think the sump pump discharge goes right below there too. And definitely facing south-ish as well.  The more you know

My dear mother just sent me this picture. Absolutely bonkers imo 

Who else hear the thundah

4 hours ago, Brian D said:

Lost power for about half an hr. Tree over a line. Have oil lamps (old Aladdin style passed down from my gma), and a gas stove for heat if need be.  

Pretty nice returns over you atm no? How's it hanging?

Thought this was interesting enough to share w yall

Y'all are actually funny as heck

Never been caught giggling at the weather forum before 

6 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

where’s the doom and gloom squad after the 0z runs?

17 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

If we miraculously manage to mitigate whatever warmup is locked in and we reel in a monster 10-14 days from now, great.  Too bad we couldn't get it in December. 

58 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

Just 5 days ago the CPC predicted BN temps and normal precip for the month of February. lol

Right.  And I'm sure Joe wouldn't be shocked if we reel a storm in either after all in a week or two, since he never really recanted his prior optimism in favor of remaining aloof.  My point is that the second issues like sun angle and shit become a problem, I'd rather just save our year-to-year pretend climo snowfall luck for next season. 

If we miraculously manage to mitigate whatever warmup is locked in and we reel in a monster 10-14 days from now, great.  Too bad we couldn't get it in December. Normally I'd be here excited for the DABs we've got coming but again, it's completely futile because we're completely resetting next week it seems.  

I understand this is a personal banter take but 

Yeah basically looks like the rest of the season can be written off at this point.  First torch is already locked in and after that I'd rather just save the ol' climo luck points for next season 

The amount of happy chemicals my brain managed to derive from a ten-minute lunch break dog walk in 28 and sunny almost just shot me straight through "I guess I'd still take a big dawg" season.

Feeling pretty good about at least getting my inch 

4 minutes ago, Chicago916 said:

Snow only lasted 30 minutes here lol the WSW was upgraded for that? Maybe should've been a Snow Squall Warning instead?

I thought it was upgraded because they expect potentially less large breaks at least for the city proper, whereas this start is progressing about as expected no? Up by Milwaukee looks good, I understand that all to at least drift through the city in the next few hours

The sky is in full Threads mode today with bright sun fighting through otherwise completely uniform overcast skies. Dust has already been falling for hours. It kind of feels reminiscent of the eclipse the other year

10 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Honestly. I know my areas climo/tendencies. I look at all the models and ensembles and look for trends....ESPECIALLY on ensembles. I look for what things are showing up consistently in some form or another vs things that are there one run and gone the next. Also I never ever take any model verbatim. Thats how I model watch because I dont understand a lot of the more technical stuff either. 

I guess that's exactly what I do, just try and analyze differences run to run. Where I guess I break down is understanding why models show what they do and recognizing, for example, synoptic setups conducive to constructive phasing in a general sense. 

In this case, I can look at 500mb geo height maps all day and see where different pieces of energy are coming from. Looks like shit from the Pacific (?) and some crap riding down the rockies (?) could conceptually come together, but the setup is otherwise seemingly too progressive (?)

Now, there's still a moderate HP center out in front of this, but obviously its impact is much less than in our last system where iirc heights kept building slightly over canada with every run instead of trending the opposite way (?) Obviously this is a major oversimplification but that's the point I suppose - I wish I knew how 

Again, I am not trying to equate this system with the last or say I have any hopes for it. It's just the next upcoming case study.

It's a struggle sometimes to ask questions genuinely stemming from curiosity for fear of seeming like a wishcaster. It's tough because (understandably) nobody posts a damn fucking thing until the elephant is basically addressing itself. Again, competely understandable, but this is the mfing Winter 2025-26 Medium/Long Range Discussion™ thread so let's chat:

What's up with about 150ish hours from now?  What dictates the degree of phasing between the various pieces that could be involved? Even if it phases into a 1-3 incher, what might control that? I truly want to stress that I'm just looking to understand large-scale, basic stuff here and not fishing for hope -- nor doomer shit.  Even if you aren't pro, what do you think?  If you are absolutely not paying attention because it's DOA, then why?  

The last one stung a bit because we at least marginally had skin in the game, but with that not being an issue this time around, I'll freely say I'm hoping EC weenies manage to reel their upcoming shot in. Ik they're dooming pretty hard in there but that would be a truly amazing snowpack for someone if it did manage to happen, and my soul hurts on their behalf just thinking about missing out (even understanding that it's not exactly a slam dunk setup)

If I can walk away with an inch to keep appearances up I'll be happy. Anything above that is bonus money

Hope it'll work out for someone. Seems like quite the long duration event for this side of the lake no?

14 minutes ago, Baum said:

The thought of it stings. But once it’s 50’s with thorms and the salt and slop has washed away not so much. 

The second things like sun angle start becoming an issue again all I can think about is the lake getting warm as fast as possible.  I think last year was pretty good in that respect since spring was pretty solid iirc.  Since we're looking at cold cold for at least the next two weeks, this may be my first year of actively pulling for a torch in about three weeks' time.    

Ik it's been a pretty standout year for Chicago lake effect events but I'm pretty happy with the bonuses I've received here in westmont so far. I think snow cover has been far more consistent than back home in Aurora and I'm pleasantly surprised. It's definitely kept me from cad posting