Malacka11

I think we should elect a thread starter beforehand so that it's all official if we actually get that far, and I think it should be one of the wizards that have been dropping all the knowledge in here lately

Per LOT extended range courtesy our very own:

Looking out beyond day 7, for multiple model cycles in a row, the ensemble means have consistently depicted the ejection of an anomalously deep western trough into the Midwest. The pieces could thus come together to support a strong synoptic system affecting the region (irrespective of precip. types) early in the first full work week of January. Medium-long range ensemble guidance also has been consistent in an active and colder pattern continuing through mid January, so there may eventually be some bonafide winter weather threats to track. Stay tuned.

Castro

You nerds ready to suffer some more emotional damage cause it's coming 

4 minutes ago, Lightning said:

In the 90s (my single life days) we would play Bocce Ball on Christmas day when temps were in the 50s .    Maybe I should start doing that again this year with the family. 

That actually sounds like a total blast, I'm terribly at bocce sadly

Maybe I'm silly but if it isn't gonna be snowy, I think gloomy is the next best Christmas weather. Keeps some of the coziness alive. Every other week the depression weather can piss off though

I don't get how it's so challenging to figure out a new mod that we all trust who'll delete his ass. It's not like we don't have options, and surely there's some way to reach the upper admins.

16 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Here's something kind of neat. This storm's top analog for this evening's charts is 1/1/1987, also an El Nino winter. Would've been a washout for maybe New Years eve celebrations like it was a washout for Florida this morning

 

Happen to be any historic big dogs in the Midwest that year?

16 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Now that I've finally caught a sig on my own, just to prove to myself that I can, thinking about joining a CoD chase tour in the spring.

That really was a one of a kind experience you earned yourself that day. I'd sign up with you if I weren't perpetually broke. I still need to replace the fender that my lil tornado incident cost me... at least all the glass and the side mirror has been long done. Need to paint the mirror though, it's gray to the rest of the shitbox's white

20 minutes ago, st0rmbrkr said:

Why does it matter if a thread is started and the storm doesn't come to fruition?  Is there a limit to the number of threads on this Forum?  Is there nothing to be learned or discussed from a system or model that changes?

Just our pride that gets hurt methinks 

25 minutes ago, bowtie` said:

Just what is GraphCast?

It seems basically to be an AI composite of weather data/other models which is interesting, because that's more or less what I considered normal weather models to be already. Kind of cool if it actually works well which I don't see how it would be a downgrade in any way.

3 hours ago, Lightning said:

How about we hold off starting storm threads until it is within 3 days (i.e. worthless NAM range)???  

I think this is good plan, having a "rule" will help with the urge to start a thread the second it feels semi plausible for an event to occur. My issue is that the thought of not starting a thread early enough for an event that does happen gives me anxiety

7 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

Not just the GFS, Euro did something similar.

I feel like the Euro was almost worse this time around no? Wasn't it the only OP to have a proper big dog? Only to trend to turd FROPA in less than a day too?

Continuing my trend of obnoxious optimism... At least it happened now and not on the 23rd.

euro more like you're a ho

Even if it's a tease we usually don't even get one of those for a while still

I like our placement between models but as always now, I fear a one-run transition to an event with a much lower ceiling. 

Question: why is it that, for example, the 06z GFS offered a pretty bland storm while the 06z GEFS was pretty crazy with the vast majority of members with a storm depicting a much more impressive event than the OP?

13 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

It's really a subjective conversation. Rogue mentioned that the first real snow threat last winter wasn't til Dec 23rd. And I brought up the Arctic front snow band from Nov 19. The word "heavy" was I guess the key word for everyone. I meant heavy in terms of visib at DTW going below a quarter mile, not that 1.7" is a ton of snow lol. But my point was that the lakes often "help us" in MI when synoptic is zzzz.

Yeah, that's what I assumed you meant too. Regardless of quantity, that amount of snow accounting for initial melt has to mean that it was coming down pretty hard for a time.

Correct me if I'm wrong but I feel like once we get into the medium range, the models have gotten a lot more consistent at showing the same changes in thinking simultaneously, even if they're not necessarily correct. Like with next weekend's potential, all of the models have exhibited a dramatic changeup in the last 18 hours but they're doing it together, for better or worse. There hasn't been nearly as much "catching up" ya know?

38 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Considering we got almost a foot of snow in less than 12 hrs in mid November not too long ago, but I need to respect that nickle and diming gets some excited. I just hope we can get a decent snow in early December. It seems more often than not, December is boring. These last 3 days of foggy cold rain makes me question why anyone would live here this time of year lol.

In all honesty my point of memery was just heavy snow rates vs heavy snow totals: I thought we were talking more about the former than the latter lol. Nickel and dimeing gets me hyped when there's potential for some stacking or if it's actually setting the mood for the holidays/birthdays/in general if I'm feeling it. Other than that it's not crazy to me.

59 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

josh's criteria for heavy is different than ours....

Just my $.02 but -assuming I'm reading that right- 1.7" in two hours or less while accounting for November ground temps sounds like a pretty decent thumping to me. 

9 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

First real snow threat wasn't until 12/23 last winter over here. Followed by another month of boring crap. 

Exactly. And even that felt shockingly early to me. Usually the first real medium/long range threat with some real balls takes forever to even be hinted at.

Correct me if I'm wrong but I feel like several years in previous memory didn't even give us the first shitty thread the needle event if only for tracking purposes until around now. At least it looks active for the foreseeable future. 

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

 

I'm kind of impressed by the longevity of this snow. I guess I just didn't pay attention to expected temps but I was under the impression that everything would melt within a day tops. Still 95% white out there with these temps 

Maybe some extreme needle threading later next week?