Malacka11

I'm sorry but anyone who thinks Stebo is full of himself should absolutely NOT be defending Angrysummons. Stebo isn't cocky, he's just right 99% of the time.

My optimism was along the lines of 3" instead of 2"

There's definitely some juicier ensemble runs in there. I know that by itself doesn't mean anything beyond a hope, but this one feels good to me.

There's a model or two that is in that vicinity, but 3-5 is probably an optimistic appraisal of the situation right now. Here in Aurora, I'll be happy with a dusting. Edit: Correct me if I'm wrong.

Look bozo, asking us not to fanboy over fantasy modeling is like asking us not to be weather hobbyists. Sure, a lot of times the stuff is wrong, but this wouldn't be much of a hobby if we only follow stuff within NAM range. It's one thing if someone pulls up and starts unloading 300 hour+ GFS screenshots, but RC is literally a professional meteorologist so you have absolutely no leg to stand on telling him not to discuss 10-day forecasts in the most accurate, science based manner seen on this forum. You are the ball and chain around this forum's ankles. Go be a drag somewhere else.

There's being a pessimist and then there's being a jackass. Angrysummons falls firmly into the second camp, and that's the problem.

I don't wanna screw us all, but I do think that if we can just survive the next seven days, there will at least be an event to look forward to tracking.

Exactly. Storms that we in the Midwest and the northeast can't possibly appreciate would make someone's day down south. It's just so much more rare that if they get their once-a-winter opportunity, I'm not gonna bitch about it.

I'm sure plenty of you disagree, and that's okay, but if it's not gonna snow up here, then it might as well snow down there. Spread the lovin' to our southern weenie brethren...

He's angry, but he definitely wasn't summoned

I've really been out of the loop, exactly how likely is a Southeast shift

Just started snowing here in aurora

I'm due. And I'm not just due for a snowstorm, I'm due for one that actually overperforms.

If Aurora can hit the 8" mark from this somehow it can rain on Friday all it wants to.

If we could trend this thing just a few counties farther south, I'll sell myself to mother nature

Please download and contribute

GFS actually weakened the low somewhat, stops the westward trend a little at least.

Still our biggest event of the season with ease.

I'm not even talking about getting into that shmexy pink swath, but surely laying down even a couple inches of snow in LOT would help with temperatures for wave II right?

At this juncture, as long as the snow isn't suggested to fall in msp, I could honestly not care less about the westward trend continuing for another day. In fact, it might be a good thing. Rather have it like this than our dumb asses locking a storm in five days out only for it to trend back to Ohio again or something. We always knew we were gonna have to fight for this one tooth and nail so let's show some spirit

There's actually been a lot of concurrence between the ICON, GFS, and CMC so far tonight. What I don't like now tho is that they all show a relatively narrow band of snow with the second low and a lot of energy streaming by. Yeah Chicago is in the right area perhaps to get some snow, but once again we went from forecasting a swath the size of two states to one that's maybe 100 miles wide tops. Would like to see things look a bit... more widespread in future runs

Yeah. I don't want to jump the gun, but I guess what it comes down to now is weather we might get some snow, or the whopping that the GFS shows to our east (and the GEM to our west). The GEFS has some strong members but lots of meh ones too. Of course, I'll take anything but let's be real here... We're in it to win it.

I'm talking strictly about the secondary lows. Honestly, even I with my boundless optimism realize that chances are we won't manage much from low #1 -if anything- but as long as low #2 steals the show, that's okay with me

I don't wanna get bitten in the ass for saying this, but I think if we can find a happy middle ground between GFS and CMC, we'll have our first real storm of the year here in N IL.

GHD I style bowling ball inbound