Malacka11

Wait so you're not being sarcastic?

The system around the seventh, even though it's a way out still, is looking interesting to me.

As someone who just recently joined this forum and has only lived here for ten years, this is all pretty eye-opening to me. Up until this year, I've never even really considered December as real winter material. Personally, my little eye spies January 1st, though who knows what'll happen with that system. Looks like it could go too far north or south.

I'd take it. IIRC, the last accumulating snowfall we've had here was the Thanksgiving blizzard... it's been almost a month.

The GFS and GEM have uprooted the past like three days' worth of trends with next week's snowstorm. I do not envy the people who just had 15 inches of snow disappear from underneath them, even if it's only for one run:

Looking like clobbering time up north in about a week. Hopefully that storm spreads as wide of a swath of snow as is physically possible; it'll play nicely into any snow-pack considerations for future events.

This is the 27th storm on the last FV3 run:

If anyone hasn't seen it yet, here's another reason why the NE forums are a bit happy right around now:

Personally, I think the winter is just beginning.

Sometimes us weenies need to remember that the usual models only extend two weeks out, which really isn't a whole lot if you consider the bigger picture, especially since a lot can change in two weeks of model runs. Even the torch on the 28th is over 200 hours out... correct me if I'm wrong, but if it were a blizzard that was being modeled ten days out, no one would buy into it, so no one should be overly worried about it being 60F+ in N IL/IN/OH either at this point in time yet either.

Forgot who, but someone mentioned earlier that one worrisome trend of the year is for storms to start out at least as a mix and then gradually morph into all rain... ...the GFS shows literally like no snow now with the late week system. Even twelve hours ago, there was at least something.

From like midweek onwards through 384, I don't think there's a single day that some GEFS member doesn't have a snowstorm somewhere... It's soul-crushing to imagine how many of these potential even will never come close to verifying.

Call me an idiot, but something tells me that this has potential, even if that something is just hope:

Maybe that 'snowhole' will finally fill in a little

Given the past few weeks, even the way it looks now isn't half bad.

Wrong. Three feet of snow, winds of eighty million mph... (/s )

I don't even care if it snows here or not, as long as the pattern becomes more active around and after Christmas.

I see. I've seen @RCNYILWX post stuff before, but I didn't make the connection that it was Castro. Good to know And thanks for all of the forecasts, @Castro

A lot of people on here have been getting very pessimistic over the possibility of our pattern change dissapearing. For those of you who don't monitor it, here's a bit from LOT's forecast discussion: It`s not currently in the forecast grids, but with the above normal height and thermal profile pattern in place, can`t rule out fog and stratus formation at times in the Monday-Tuesday timeframe as well as strong inversions will form at night. Finally, signs are pointing to a return of a -EPO in the northeast Pacific late next week into the weekend before Christmas, so expect a normal to below normal temperature regime in time for Christmas. As far as chances for a white Christmas...stay tuned. Castro

I know it's been a day since you made this post, but out of general curiousity, what indications favor this occurring?

Nothing, hopefully /s

As the garden type variety of snow fan whose forecasting abilities are that of whatever shows up as green and blue on tropical tidbits, I'm flabbergasted. I can't decide if this is an elaborate joke or if it may actually be a thing, simply because "hopefully it's stronger than 1978" is not a common phrase, and we're so far out still.. my mind is swirling with the possibility. This IS my green brownie

On the bright side, it'll give us two things to look forward to...

My thoughts exactly.

I'd take it