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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Ye olden NAM at range was pretty tasty:
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the 18z Euro really tried to pop a low in the Gulf: Next frame it transfers to off of Cape Canaveral, but it is at least there.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z Euro compared to 12z Euro: I can't tell if it has ticked slightly west, or if the trough is more positively tilted.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    I know he's talking about the MA, but I will take any hint ohf hope that the whole system can tick a bit west. Here'e a comparison of the NAMs mentioned: I think that level of analysis is above my pay grade. They look very similar. The best I can see is that the 3km is quicker to kick out a more consolidated shortwave and there's a little more interaction between the two waves at hour 60.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    another gem from csnavywx
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Speaking of the 18z NAM it actually gets a smidge of Gulf moisture back into East TN:
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    As long as it’s just mostly severe and not entirely severe. Got to have that thunder in the mountains.
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah it was a little better than 0z: looked to me like it tried to phase over western TN and AL
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z Euro looked better with the southwest shortwave than the 18z GFS and the 12z Euro, IMO: Brings a more consolidated shortwave out.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Just a quick glance at the GEFS and it looks like it is east of the OP, with the mean vort maps out to around hour 78.
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    I hope so. Some chunk of that 4 corners shortwave has got to kick out, or everybody loses accept for down east Maine and Nova Scotia, lol.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    In that set up we can hopefully get one of the northern shortwaves to be an over performing clipper.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Happy hour is filled with northern stream sadness. The vort gets so far west it can't manage to get east enough to phase with the secondary s/waves coming in from canada:
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    It's gotten so far west, that the GFS is trying to cut it off this time:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    The western ridge is once again coming in slightly taller on the 18z GFS.
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Not so great at reading the stormvista maps yet, but it looks like there are quite a few members of the EPS west of the OP: Obviously still not great for us, but I think we would like that western trend to continue as long as possible.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    In all seriousness, if that western piece of energy holds together better than modeled and we still get shortwave interaction like the above...
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Well, that didn't age well in the time it took me to look at the qpf maps, lol. But man that energy interaction just screams big storm to me.: I'll take it's move towards the GFS as a win at 12z though!
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    OMG I just went back to the vort maps out to hr 120. I can't wait to see the MSLP and precip outputs, lol.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    I've not seen the surface maps, but that one also feels like it would be good for TRI
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Man, I would love that look if I was a MA weenie.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    I don't think this will end up being a super duper awesome run, but I think the Euro will end up having made a sizeable jump towards the GFS.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Don't want to disrupt the Euro PBP too much, but just got an update on the CMC: https://status.commoditywx.com/?utm_source=embed
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Compared to the 0z Euro, the ridge is coming in taller in the Pac.
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