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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    I-81 at Ft Henry Drive in Kingsport/ Colonial Heights looks fun:
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Starting to fully saturate here now. Should be a steady light snow soon.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    Are you north or south of house mt?
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Cheer up fellers! Sunset is in only three hours! Kidding aside, upper low is still up north Chicago and all we have is some broad divergence ands little bit of a leeside low for now.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    state of the state here: with occasional flurries.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Still some dry air to overcome. And I'm guessing there are some people looking at the sounding below who have seen a model sounding, but aren't quite sure what it means, so I have put a few (hopefully) helpful tags. Above sounding is for around 8am this morning ,near Morristown, just as a site kind of in the middle of the area most likely to get snow. Red and green lines show the temperature and dewpoint respectively at any given level between the ground and the tropopause. the ground is at the bottom of the line and the tropopause is at the top. You want those two to be together or close, to get precipitation. Note that on the above sounding they are still a bit apart, especially lower down in the atmosphere. For good snow growth, you want the dewpoint and temperature to be together in the yellow zone, the dendritic growth zone (DGZ). DGZ has to do with temperature. There is additional info about the DGZ for a particular sounding in the box on the far bottom right. Temperature and saturation can effect snow dendrite type: You'll probably see some soundings on here today or have already seen some that shows a HUGE DGZ. Lastly we have Omega, called so because (I think) it is the greek letter used to denote forcing. I am not a mathemataizer, so here is a description:
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think at this point noon - 1 is probably a good call, but I would just watch radar and wait for the snow to reach the ground. HRRR is struggling with the radar depiction, even when it initializes with the current radar. You can see below it initializes with the current radar: But loses it in the next frames.
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Johnson City has been upgraded to Major impacts as of this AM on the WSSI severity index:
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    Once again it is time:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Lake michigan still has quite a bit of open water, maybe the upper low can pick up some moisture if it’s cold enough lol.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    SREF means .qpf trends for select locations Abingdon: TRI:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    the above is for TYS
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like the SREF .qpf held pretty steady (blue is 15z, red is 9z) EDIT I got it backwards. red is 15z, blue is 9z
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    I guess that's more like Rutledge though
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Wy does snow hate Morristown and want it to die?
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    edited for key:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Oh yeah, I just saw the "High End" wording. You could have just let me believe for a few more minutes.
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    That WPC map is almost unbelievable.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like it.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here are some 6z EPS .qpf spreads for select airport locations in east TN.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think it is an earlier generation of the AI models. I remember hearing about it more last year. But honestly not sure.
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    I fired up a Feb thread.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Stratosphere outlook is active. Even the GEFS is showing a warming and split in the mean. I would show the EPS, but it isn't available on weatherbell. Op Euro: Op GFS: If this plays out, I would expect impacts around the first or second week of March. One thing to consider, is that the last time we had a major SSWE in February (2018 I think), we did not have the base state we have this winter. It was a low - moderate Nina, but we hadn't really had a lot of blocking that winter. I think this one is happening, so it will be interesting to see how it plays out in early March.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    February is about all there is to talk about in the medium range now. State of the atmosphere at the end of January, 2026:
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z Euro 5 run trend: You can really see the min-maxing on the 0/12z and 6/18z runs:
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