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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    RAP looks interesting too
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Probably a good call lol. But the NAM is trying to do the same thing. The HRRR drops 6-7 inches over somewhere southwest of Lexington. I’m running a little cooler than forecast up here at 46 degrees and maybe that’s what is causing the models to want to change over some areas sooner? Burst of heavy snow for 45 minutes at 8 am = a win
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    NAM seems stuck at 10z but 1z HRRR looks interesting for areas between Nashville and the n plateau
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah just about to say the 0z NAM is even further S and E with the SLP and has a band swinging towards the plateau toward 12z
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    I meant the MRX quote more as a chance of something earlier than the main upslope event. I'm hoping I can chase it up toward the Obed in the AM while some of the deeper moisture is still around.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    MRX is going with a chance of some snow mixed in tomorrow AM for my area. "Rain and snow showers likely before 10am, then a chance of rain showers between 10am and 4pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers after 4pm. Cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 34 by 5pm. Northwest wind around 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no snow accumulation expected."
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    Honestly no clue. This should be as good a chance as any to see. I've only ever been there for an upslope the one time I mentioned yesterday in banter. This seems like a better upslope opportunity. Looks like you get WSW though. Good luck!
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    PLEASE, n one take this seriously, but it is always fun to check out the absurd numbers the NAM 3km will sometimes show for a place like LeConte for an upslope event:
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    3km has a pretty good ban around 8 AM. If that verifies I will go poke around to see if I can catch it in the morning: Even showing a brief change over in @Blue Moon land around 4 - 5 AM
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z NAM has now flipped to send the SLP primarily up east of the Apps. Changes some of Cumberland county over at around 7 - 8 AM:
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z Euro is trying to change over some parts of the plateau overnight into very early Mon morning:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    12z Ukie upped plateau totals ever so slightly
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    I though I'd create a thread for this storm since there may be another one we are talking about in the main thread for the end of this week. I think the full moon of November is technically called the Beaver Moon, but I just couldn't bring myself to call it that.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    In terms of the long range pattern, the battle of wits ensembles continues: GEFS EPS: GEPS:
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    Based on the 0z NAM's surface low plots, I vote we call this the Hoot Owl storm:
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    'Twere pretty @Daniel Boone but surely no match for SREF plumes:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z Euro mighty close to making the jump across the Apps:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    They've been pretty consistent for both our areas with a one inch mean and no members showing 0.
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    @BhamParker Here is a similar, but not identical set up from Dec 21, 2018. I mention it because I chased it up to 6000 feet and here is how the elevation changed the accumulations, at least as it was underway. I had to leave at about 6000 feet on Mt LeConte, I just didn't have the right gear for this: 6" in about 3 hours and a 20 mph wind gusting to 30+ But below that, here is what it looked like at about 5000-5500 feet: 4500 - 5000 feet: 2500 - 3000 feet: Trail head for Bullhead trail up Mt Leconte: I don't know if you are a hiker, but Bullhead trail is accessible to Gatlinburg and gets you up above 6000 feet. It's a heckuva hike though and this storm looks like it has a much better upslope component. Most of this came from a quick changeover from 6000 feet around 5 AM down to 3000 feet by 10 AM and them on down to the base of the mt. I think 3000 feet probably did a lot better than these pictures depict, since I had to leave early and the one I label 2500 - 3000 feet had no snow when I went up. All that accumulation was by the time I got back to that part of the trail.
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z GFS looks like it almost wanted to run the SLP from Macon, GA to Charlotte, NC, but randomly jumps at hour 36 back to the TN/ NC border: I guess we're just at "see what happens time" now. One thing I did notice today was that there was a stronger wedge (from obs at southerwx) and a little bit of a leeside low near Asheville: That's now transitioned to a more of a diffuse area of lower pressure and the WPC even has a couple of what I think are inverted surface troughs and a Low hanging out in the piedmont. This may play a role in how the surface low behaves too, but honestly I'm not sure:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    Yeah, their 1 -2 for Roan Mountain seemed a little low to me, but maybe they mean the town of Roan Mountain and not the 5500 - 6000 peak. Did I read earlier that you were getting a cabin near Gatlinburg @BhamParker?
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    The WRF NMM showed a similar solution at 12z: That would be as much of a run for my location as I can probably hope for.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z RGEM plows the surface low right up the TN/ NC border.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like it, lol. 18z RGEM is coming in further SE.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z NAM is west again, but shows some change over in Middle TN toward Monday early AM
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