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Holston_River_Rambler

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Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    In other news this morning, the GFS 16 has once again abandoned us for a time I'm ready for whatever wildness the NAM will bring over the next few days when it gets the bigger storm early next week into some of its runs.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Th extended part of the UKMET brings yet another storm with ice over middle TN, after 144:
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    More cold press?
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    New areas in the Warning/ Advisory for TN/ SW VA? MRX mentioned Claiborne/ Campbell/ Scott in the PM AFD and Wise, but wasn't sure if they were under any product this AM
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    12km NAM coming in SE with the ice again.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's the H5 evolution (vort panels aren't loading for some reason):
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    and that's exactly where it runs the LP:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    Not the sight I was hoping for (but still out to hour 138), but still noteworthy for its ice depcition:
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think the 10km UKMET is going to be a sight to behold when it finishes its run out to hr 168, lol. Here's how it looks at hr 120:
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Another thing to consider, that I've been kicking around in my mind, is the Momentum that's being added to the Polar regions right now (see: Does that aded momentum help push the energy that causes the storm east more quickly (forces it further south and east in its ultimate evolution?), or is the that momentum added too far north to do anything except for the big TPV?
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like Miller B on the second one too, at least on this run:
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Look at how the HP breaks as the storm attacks: What's to say the high wouldn't break the other way and the storm run up the coast? Sure there's no 50/50 to lock the HP in, but we've seen bigger shifts at 5 days out this winter.
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    Stole this from southern wx. Run to run temp change on the Euro:
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think the next one is going to be a hit for someone in the area (hedges bets and hides)
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    The next piece of energy is going to have a better chance on this run, if it can amplify.
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's the evolution in terms of precip:
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's what we end up with: the main energy just runs too far north:
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
    I mean, this looks like it should end well...
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Normally you would think this was a good look, lol:
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    I just always wanted to post that, lol.
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    This is the biggest Euro run of the millennium....
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    Same for me, but since 1996. Just bad luck in the places I've lived in E TN. I can't complain too much though, since I've occasionally lucked out in some of these marginal setups. UKMET looks like it should be interesting once it finishes running. Pivotal ends the 12z run with this 6 hour total snowfall image at hr 144: My version goes out to hr168.
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    Never tried the "anticipate the NAM" trick with SREF for an icing situation and even for snow, it only works like 75% of the time, at least it seems that way to me.
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    NAM may be coming in icier. Last 5 SREF runs of probs of ZR greater than 0.05 in 3hrs:
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    If the Euro is off by several degrees, looks rough for even the plateau: 18z Euro:
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