Jump to content

Holston_River_Rambler

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    6,206

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Holston_River_Rambler

  1. Holston_River_Rambler
    Looks like it.
  2. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here are some 6z EPS .qpf spreads for select airport locations in east TN.
  3. Holston_River_Rambler
    I think it is an earlier generation of the AI models. I remember hearing about it more last year. But honestly not sure.
  4. Holston_River_Rambler
    I fired up a Feb thread.
  5. Holston_River_Rambler
    Stratosphere outlook is active. Even the GEFS is showing a warming and split in the mean. I would show the EPS, but it isn't available on weatherbell. Op Euro: Op GFS: If this plays out, I would expect impacts around the first or second week of March. One thing to consider, is that the last time we had a major SSWE in February (2018 I think), we did not have the base state we have this winter. It was a low - moderate Nina, but we hadn't really had a lot of blocking that winter. I think this one is happening, so it will be interesting to see how it plays out in early March.
  6. Holston_River_Rambler
    February is about all there is to talk about in the medium range now. State of the atmosphere at the end of January, 2026:
  7. Holston_River_Rambler
    6z Euro 5 run trend: You can really see the min-maxing on the 0/12z and 6/18z runs:
  8. Holston_River_Rambler
    3 run qpf trend on the RGEM
  9. Holston_River_Rambler
    My first thought is that it could be the extra dropsonde data points (i.e. improves resolution over the Pacific when these are added to 0z) but these are only done in the PM for the past few days, so it doesn't explain the 12z shift too. It seems like something like this, but not as strong, happened with medium/ long range storm signals in the past and I thought it might have been due to diurnal convection cycles modulating how global models dealt with large-scale features (like any SE ridge or in this case PNA ridge). That's not much, but all I can think of for now regarding the 6/18z and 0/12z differences. Hurricane hunters are planning a Gulf or Atlantic flight today in addition to a couple of Pacific ones, so we'll see what if anything, that does for 18z - 0z model this evening.
  10. Holston_River_Rambler
    Imagine that…. Weather next 2.836473838 is delayed again tonight. If you’re bored waiting on the NAM, check out the high end SREF plume for Bristol.
  11. Holston_River_Rambler
    Nope that's today. https://weatherstar.netbymatt.com/ Plug and play for your location
  12. Holston_River_Rambler
    Here's a throwback for y'all:
  13. Holston_River_Rambler
    No, there was a weather model subscription service, that for whatever reason, had each sref member. So you know how you can see individual members on the EPS or GEFS? You could actually look for the highest plume, in this case ARN 1, and then go to that service and see how that member played out out with precip. and temp panels.
  14. Holston_River_Rambler
    Probably got another 1.5ish hours on that. Maybe we'll get to try and interpret southernwx posts again!
  15. Holston_River_Rambler
    There used to be a subscription service where you could view individual sref members, but sadly I can't find it any more. This is probably as close as you can get to seeing that. This is the SREF MAX 3 hour snow, so it is showing you the absolute wonkiest top tier output imaginable
  16. Holston_River_Rambler
    It was a bit more neutrally tilted on the Euro and deeper: Euro left, GFS right
  17. Holston_River_Rambler
    Lucy can't pull the football if she doesn't hold it first, John, and give you some hope!
  18. Holston_River_Rambler
  19. Holston_River_Rambler
    Current mid level water vapor shows the vort soup starting to be compressed:
  20. Holston_River_Rambler
    Right now its a big soup over Hudson's Bay All that kind of gets compressed as it rotates south, by a ridge pressing down They're also doing another hurricane hunters dropsonde mission this evening. Looks like it is trying to sample some of the atmosphere that the Pac is going to sling at is as it rotates down:
  21. Holston_River_Rambler
    For those asking what we need for more to be involved (and it ain't happening) Here's what we have, not necessarily terrible for east TN: Here is what we need:
  22. Holston_River_Rambler
    ehhhhh Pivotal looks better, so we'll go with that:
  23. Holston_River_Rambler
    18z NAM kuchera:
  24. Holston_River_Rambler
    That is a pretty look for sure.
  25. Holston_River_Rambler
    Rug pull watch may be warranted later today.
×
×
  • Create New...