Holston_River_Rambler

RAP and HRRR give us a radar presentation like a little cyclone tomorrow. I wonder if that will verify?

New graphic as of 5am eastern from MRX: Watches, advisories, and warnings: Some key goosies from teh overnight Disco: As such, I am highly confident there will be widespread snow showers across at least the northern half of the CWA, if not the northern two thirds of the CWA during that time. It`s entirely possible some locations could pick up an inch of snow or more - one might even say it`s likely. However, confidence in where exactly that occurs is very low. Recent ensemble data shows increasing confidence in a notable snowfall event for the Smokies, with probabilistic data giving high confidence in snowfall totals exceeding 8 inches. The evening shift updated the totals to include an 11" total for Mount LeConte area, and Newfound Gap won`t be too far behind that I don`t believe. Went ahead and upgraded the Watch to a Winter Storm Warning because of this. Additionally, there`s sufficient confidence in snowfall totals exceeding Advisory level criteria elsewhere in the east TN mountains and the higher terrain of our Virginia counties, so I added an Advisory to those areas, grabbing Monroe county on the southern end too. There`s signal in the higher resolution guidance that shows Sams Gap area along the I- 26 corridor closing in on the 5-6" range; I wouldn`t be surprised if the High Knob area in Wise county winds up with something similar. Elsewhere, other areas in the advisory should be covered just fine with the 1-4" totals. It`s highly likely that some adjustments or outright expansion of snowfall totals, areal coverage of these headlines, or both, will be needed on the day shift today.

I haven't started any subscriptions yet, so I don't have access to all the fun charts, but I pulled 0-3km CAPE and lapse rates on the RAP on the COD site from 12z Monday through about the next 20 hours CAPE: Low level lapse rates: Can we praise the sun angle for this one, lol? Euro throws out some 700 mb frontogenesis: Really helps this vort. is rolling through at what peak heating we will have. No matter how you slice it, it looks like we will have moisture, lift, and cooperative temps. Thankfully this isn't October, so we don't have that La Nina kiss of death. Euro and RGEM take the vort. right over my head in Morgan County. NAMs like TRI, SWVA and Eastern KY. GFS looks like MRX gets the overhead pass.

Sorry, been swamped this fall. Every weekend I tell myself I will check in but something comes up. I know that once I'm committed to tracking, I'm committed Here are some sky, sunrise/set pics from the summer.

I was actually out of town for that. Just a lot of trees down in Frozen Head and some moderate flooding IMBY.

Random severe storm rolling N and NW in Monroe county this PM. Can see the towering clouds from my place in Morgan county.

Sorry man.

How did everything turn out?

Strat PV looks like it may get obliterated in just over a week. Last one didn’t work out a few weeks ago, but this one looks stronger. Masiello is saying that this has the potential to be one of the strongest wave one events on record in March. impacts, if any, would likely be towards the end of March.

I made a new historic severe wx thread.

My old thread got archived, so I made a new one.

12z Euro has something around March 8. I think this is the same system models have been seeing off and on per the above posts.

I made one years ago. Not sure where it went.

Yeah, just saw the Euro and thought that looked ideal for y’all severe folks next Tuesday evening. Hopefully it will QLCSify by the time it gets to the plateau, if it happens as the 12z Euro depicted.

Almost looks like there is a little leeside low forming in upstate SC

A live look out my window:

Ended up with about 1.5" total so far.

Much vaunted late February sun angle has done exactly 0 to melt anything except on the roads.

Here's how that looks on the HRRR, (using COD site since the blues are bluer there)

Yeah, I was just looking at the HRRR and RAP and it almost looks like this system us getting some higher (more elevated)-than-usual moisture trapped on our side of the Apps and some orographic lift is able to take advantage of that in areas that usually don't do well with the typical upslope.

Looks like MRX finally filled in the WWAs over the southern valley. Looks like they pulled the trigger at around 5:30 am.

Pretty cold cloud tops over east TN with some back building over Mississippi and western AL: That big upper low is just over the Dakotas is just pushing it all through a little too fast.

1/2" here.

oooo we have a mesoscale disco: Mesoscale Discussion 0116 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0601 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025 Areas affected...Northeastern Arkansas...Southeastern Missouri...Western Tennessee...Western Kentucky...Southern Illinois Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 190001Z - 190300Z SUMMARY...Snowfall rates will gradually increase across portions of western Kentucky and western Tennessee through the evening. Rates will decrease through time, though some moderate to heavy snowfall rates up to 1"/hr will be possible in heavier bands. DISCUSSION...Radar analysis shows the gradual shift of snowfall into portions of western Kentucky and Tennessee this evening. Moderate to heavy snowfall is ongoing across southeastern Missouri into southern Illinois, where a persistent heavy band extends, driven by 700-850 mb frontogenesis and isentropic ascent. This enhancement will gradually shift eastward through time, with potential for a few heavier bands with occasional 1"/hr rates. HREF ensemble guidance shows a down trend in rates overall through the evening, with a transition to mostly light snow for portions of western Tennessee. Confidence is highest in potential for better rates across northwestern Kentucky into southern Illinois. ..Thornton.. 02/19/2025

Saw a lightning strike and some convective clouds as the sun was setting upstream: