Thinksnow18

BW I believe you once put up a pic of Buzz light year and a certain saying after I went off the cliff last year…I believe Dave us in need of the same intervention…

I’ve had TWC on for the majority of the AM. It’s heartbreaking to see the massive destruction that took place and the very unfortunate loss of life.

Not get off the wind event we’re about to endure, but, the ensembles have really perked up after this week ahead, and big changes may begin in about 8 days. The MJO appears to be driving into region 8 which looks to be setting a ridge over the North Atlantic drawing cold air down into the northern tier of the US. The 6Z showed this beautifully and would give us quite the clipper pattern through Xmas.

What’s the biggest issue with weather warnings? Many times they do not live up to their hype…that is our biggest issue. My theory is the people in that plant dismissed the severity of that warning and felt the Christmas rush was more important. It’s sad that this was the case in both plants and now there will be years of second guessing protocols in these situations.

I think that’s right what you say, but I keep going back to Tombo’s post yesterday about this timeframe as one to watch. The GFS has been wildly consistent, at least in terms of a storm of some sort just before Xmas. I’m liking our chances of something popping

Looks to be between 4pm and 8pm

It’s amazing to me that we live in the Great Lake where this can actually happen. It’s our version of storm surge.

You own a crow???

Well…the GFS 18z is completely different now…you know the old adage, wait 10 minutes or one model run snd everything will change?

That’s the gift that keeps on giving Clark

Lock in the 6zGFS…I kid of course…sort of…

Approaching 3” OTG…2” so far from second round and still snowing.

That’s a great point and I did forget that. But you’re correct that was intentional IF that’s where the vehicle went in.

On a weather related note, snow is moderate and flake size has increased in the past 10 minutes…since the special weather statement was issued at 130 we’ve picked up about 1/2” but I’m guessing 2” will be the total when this moves in. Picked up about an inch last night and grass is almost covered. Roads are covered

Yes! My wife snd I were just discussing it! How and where does a car get into the river at that point? If familiar with the area there aren’t many if any access points after the last grand island bridge (north)

The is accurate. The heat is more of a killer to those who can’t escape it.

I think the wording here is where we differ. Cold does not always equate to slippery conditions and snow covered roads. However, heat can’t be in the same breadth. Heat is heat and cannot be out of the equation. And your theory that most places have is A/C is not true in areas of older, high rise buildings in parts of every city. I’d also be remiss to see the accuracy per the CDC as there’s a wide discrepancy on the very heatwave they mentioned in the article. It’s much easier to stare “the ice was the cause of the accident “ but proving Mrs. smith on the 12th floor in NYC died from dehydration due to high heat is a lot more difficult.

Looks like the screenshot Wolfie sent was part of an article I just read and it turns out…NOAA thinks the heat is the bigger killer snd the CDC thinks the cold is. However, it stated that during a heatwave in Chicago some years back, 454 death certificates were handed out as causes of death related to the heat , yet the actual number was closer to 700. That was in the CDC side.

You always argue that BW and stats say different. Cold snd snow are not in all 50 states on a consistent enough basis to make that claim stick. The heat is widespread, every state sees heatwaves and there’s no escaping massive power loss from heat, elderly dying as well as people in health during excruciating sports. Ever seen a football player die during a cold snap? No me neither, but it’s happened quite a few times from heat stroke during the hot periods. As the world grows hotter this will only widen with time.

The NWS seems slow to shift their line of thinking these days. They latch onto climo and the model run they choose and don’t come off until forced to, like last night.

The operational GFS is beginning to show this. Now, i know not to trust the operational models as much as Tug moving into my neighborhood, but it’s been a few runs so I’m becoming hopeful. If we could see the ensembles show this for that timeframe we might be in to something…and no Tug, all the houses is my neighborhood are sold…none for sale…in fact a moratorium on home sales has been enacted through 2085…

Just read the last special weather statement regarding the band…they expect it to weaken after it begins its trek north after 8pm…anyone wanna wager it doesn’t weaken? They didn’t have a hood handle in it in the first place and thus band is very healthy

It has 1.4 at KBUF wonder if that’s from its journey north later tonight when the S/W approaches?

You’re on your way to another NWS special!

Somewhere Jim cantori just shrieked in excitement and he’s not sure why…