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Thinksnow18

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Everything posted by Thinksnow18

  1. Thinksnow18
    It appears the lower west side of MI is under a WWA for 3 to 6 with areas of 8 inches from tonight through tomorrow am. Wonder if this is all lake effect or a hybrid...
  2. Thinksnow18
    I agree with this...i have water in parts of my yard I've never seen before...i would love to see a hard freeze for a week and then a good snow event, lake effect or otherwise and some staying power...atm that is unlikely
  3. Thinksnow18
    Is anyone else feeling deflated by this pattern? Even if we get snow coming up, it's not going to stick around to enjoy it much.
  4. Thinksnow18
    You know that scenario in '15 is awefully similar to this year, a western trough will be in placd, lake is about 8 degrees above normal (in spots according to the map BW showed earlier) and a system coming through at that time...if I'm not mistaken that second half of winter was pretty incredible...
  5. Thinksnow18
    It's because none of is amateurs, and professionals alike are having a hard time explaining the overall factor to this crap pattern. Only thing I'm hoping for is it lasts for about two more weeks and we flip for the last 6 week's of winter.
  6. Thinksnow18
    I actually spray painted some furniture that my wife and I refurbish...and it dawned on me it's December 26th...the beer tastes great though...
  7. Thinksnow18
    So as usual blend the two camps...GFS notoriously fast and EPS notoriously lagging...that puts us back in the game around this time next week
  8. Thinksnow18
    If there's 35k fans there that'll be on the high side
  9. Thinksnow18
    And I have to admit that scenario you show surprises me due in large part to how warm the waters off the West Coast were aka the blob. That "should've" progressed into a large area of high pressure but handle not. I'm beginning to think this January turns out a lot like last Jan...warmish first two weeks, brutal and snowy last two weeks.
  10. Thinksnow18
    True however the PNA index is basically neutral ATM and is trending positive in the very near term...is this more a factor of the IOD at this point being stuck in the MJO warm phases?
  11. Thinksnow18
    What I find fascinating is the AO is negative right now and we're warmish...wonder if this is one of those seasons where the indicators don't preclude the actual weather...
  12. Thinksnow18
    Look it's almost fruitless at this point to even try and decipher what's going to happen...the GEFS shows a cold outbreak...then the euro weeklies show a great pattern fron the end of week one on through the end of January. Everything has changed more than a conflicted chameleon. I'm not expecting much to make sense until it does and even then I'll do so with reservation.
  13. Thinksnow18
    You know it's funny but I always perceive our CWA as a whole and forget how many micro climates we have upstate. I hope there's a giant ass noreaster that has NE winds and enough Atlantic moisture to pound Rochester with 2 feet.
  14. Thinksnow18
    I don't see what you're seeing...its pretty much right around the first if the year we get into a wintery pattern...potato potatoe...
  15. Thinksnow18
    I like out chances...we had our biggest lake effect events 2nd half of January last year.
  16. Thinksnow18
    I still think some of those storms will become snowstorms for us...question is when will the CWA see it's first true lake effect set up that lasts for days?
  17. Thinksnow18
    Everyone who received snow today good for you. For the rest of us who got pixie dusted...theres always mid January...this board is about to get very quiet over the next 2 weeks
  18. Thinksnow18
    Right at the Niagara frontier. I honestly believe they never see this on models.
  19. Thinksnow18
    Your on your way to a foot if it stays stationary for 2 more hours
  20. Thinksnow18
    Jealous doesn't cut it. Congrats.
  21. Thinksnow18
    Has this been one if the worst forecast winters in some time? Model noise up until the event, LR forecasting not even close to panning out (Nov and Dec were forecast to be AN) snowfall amounts being well under done or not enough (last 2 storms whiffed and were forecasted higher, November storm over performed). No confidence of any kind going into the calendar winter.
  22. Thinksnow18
    Upstream trends off lake Michigan have exploded over the past hour or two...and on a SW wind ahead of the Arctic front...could be wild for an hour or two in the predawn hours.
  23. Thinksnow18
    About an inch down in Williamsville, light to moderate snow from time to time...2 to 3 looks good.
  24. Thinksnow18
    I don't think it'll get above the low 40's at best.
  25. Thinksnow18
    The NWS actually mentioned the NAM output and it's northern bias...
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