StormChazer

Winter weather advisories are out and some upgrades to Winter Storm Warnings. Ladies and gentlemen, Never forget, Mother Nature is at her core, unpredictable. Some of the most memorable weather events in history happened because things did not go as intended and Mother Nature had her own plans. I’ve experienced several winter weather events that were like a dream all because a storm overperformed. As far as we have come, our knowledge is not infallible. There is low confidence in this storm, which means the likelihood of someone getting more than they bargained for is higher. I believe the storm will give us more than advertised! A band will set up somewhere and drop half a foot. Mark my words!

I’m ok knowing that 4 is still on the table if I’m lucky, otherwise 2-3 seems like a solid bet as of right now. Honestly, I’ll take it.

The euro ends the trend of being completely dry and juices that first wave up some. Roughly 2-4 inches for most of us here.

GFS roughly the same as last run. It's becoming clear though, that it all depends on how strong and the orientation of the initial wave of snow, that will determined 95% of the snow we get here. So, do we underperfom or overperform?

I place my hope in the NAM. 00Z

GFS has forsaken us. Still not bad. I really just want 4 inches out of this.

Latest NAM.

Recent runs to see if we can identify a consensus or trend. 12Z GFS(Sticking to it's guns) 12Z Canadian(Much improved over last night's run) 12Z ICON(Double these amounts. An Improvement over this morning and last night's runs) 06Z Euro(Still disrespectful) 12Z NAM(Still second wave coming) Final thoughts. A better trend than last night. The GFS and NAM seem to be thinking similarly. The Canadian pulled back from the Euro and looks similar to the ICON The ICON is a halfway point between the EURO and GFS. The Euro is all alone. Overall, I'm happy with this trend compared to where it was going last night. Not surprised the 06Z Euro looks about the same as last night given it's using the exact same upper air data as the 00Z. This afternoon's run will be very telling. I hope the Euro caves on it's stubborn, ugly output and falls somewhere in between the GFS/NAM and the ICON/Canadian.

I’m fine with the latest NAM solution, wave 2 is coming in but not yet shown on.

KING GFS! That’s a thing right? I don’t care, I’m shouting it from the rooftops, GFS I feel has been very reliable thus far and the most consistent. I really just want at least 4 inches. I don’t NEED 8, I just want it really bad. But 4+ keeps me happy. 2 or less makes me sad. waiting on the NAM.

Furthest out the NAM goes, with still alot of storm left to go. Of course hour 84 NAM isn't exactly gospel. Also, we have a great lightning show going on here in Tulsa right now.

Norman put this out earlier. They don't seem to be totally biting on the Euro change.

06Z Euro, fwiw, does nudge slightly back toward a more favorable setup(emphasis on slight nudge), but still has a ways to go and is still pretty dry. I think tomorrow, best we will get out of it is a flash freeze on the road from the rain.

I simply will never forget the snow hole for as long as I live. We had someone here from Mexico for work who had never seen snow, and I promised her she would that night. Then the donut happened. Still, I think the floor on this storm is 2 inches, with a really high ceiling of 10.

Preach!!! Edit: Actually, the icon cut totals by about half and dries up central and west OK.

Tulsa discussion. ” This storm will entrain healthy moisture levels for such a cold airmass, setting the stage for a potentially high impact snow storm for much of the area. As the upper level feature approaches it will induce solid mid level ascent over the area, over the top of an area already seeing good isentropic lift along the slope of the arctic airmass. Model guidance generally shows a range of 0.2 to 0.5" QPF. Forecast soundings show the entire lower atmosphere below 500 hPa in the DGZ and saturated. These factors should support extreme snow ratios of 20-1 or so. This certainly suggests the potential for a high impact snow event of 4" or greater for most of the CWA. However, the most recent 12z guidance uniformly decreased expected totals somewhat. In fact the drier models scarcely showed 2" of snow accumulation for a lot of the area. While impactful, this would not be nearly as problematic. This leaves us in a watch and wait position as some of the forecast uncertainties hopefully decline over the next day or two. With this in mind, anybody reading this should prepare now for several days of extreme cold and possibly travel impacts as well.”

Southern shift on the GFS, but still stays with heavy prolonged precip with 8 inches in Tulsa.

Euro makes me very unsettled. Can only hope that this run was too much in one direction and know it will move back in the other. I suppose the fact that every other model being in the other camp does help some.

Are we allowed to throw out runs we don't like? Because the Euro looks terrible.

Big fan GFS, big fan.

NWS in Tulsa said this. Snow chances will begin to increase again during the daytime Sunday as both ensembles and deterministic models have been fairly persistent showing a couple of shortwave troughs moving across the Southern/Central Plains late this weekend and early next week. The first round of snow arrives late morning/early afternoon on Sunday and lasts through Sunday night or early Monday morning. Models show another round of light-moderate snow, associated with a second shortwave trough, late Monday morning. There is still lots of uncertainty with how these scenarios will evolve, but confidence has increased some for a more impactful snow event for Sunday and Monday, especially for northeast OK and far northwest AR/Ozarks area. Will continue to closely monitor and update the forecast

When you're right, you're right!

Here is for Friday. Latest HRRR. http://www.weather.gov/images/tsa/graphicast/image3.png?8af6f02b358198bf541d325736eed16c

Here, have some members. My breakdown.. Roughly 14 of these models drop 6+ inches of snow here in Tulsa, double that due to ratios. If one of these solutions pan out, we are looking at some major snowfall, and 28% of the members showing that is nothing to sneeze at. Am I being a weenie? Yes, but it's backed up by data haha.

Euro Ensembles are in(remember, these are with 10:1 ratios). BIG trend toward a snowier solution for all of us. First I'll post last night's. And now this afternoon's.