StormChazer

00Z HRRR so far.

Correct! TSA had it in a few of their past discussions. lake Oologah NE of town. I live slightly downwind of the lake here in Owasso. I’ll try to attach a pic so you can see the dusting it’s given us.

Might I remind many of you that the 12Z Euro was looking pretty nice for alot of us.

From TSA in their disco. Since impacts will probably hold off until after 12Z Sunday, northwest Arkansas will remain in a watch. While the exact details will continue to change with new data, overall the message remains the same. This system will be a big deal, and will likely cause significant travel impacts.

TSA is in the process of updating their map so the numbers aren't going to add up just yet.

If this heavy band really lays down this much prior to the main storm that would be crazy.

Pretty neat snippet from TSA on the lake effect snowband from Oologah. 40:1 SNOW RATIO from this band. I wonder if this is it's own beast, or if this means there is a 40:1 potential for the system in 2 days. Surely not I would think...because that would be outrageous. Can anyone with more knowledge on this educate me? "The other concern in the short term continues to be lake effect snow streaming off of Lake Oologah. The latest radar imagery continues to show a relatively impressive and narrow band of snow streaming off of Lake Oologah. KINX is also suggesting a small, not nearly as impressive band of lake effect snow streaming off of Grand Lake which is oriented somewhat favorable with the environmental winds. Total snowfall of up to 1" has been reported within the lake effect snow band from Oologah. An NWS employee located under the band measured 0.8" of snow this morning which melted down to 0.02" of liquid resulting in a snow ratio of 40:1. This ratio is expected to maintain within this lake effect band through the afternoon, evening and overnight hours. The latest guidance continues to suggest NNE winds will not end anytime soon thus opted to extend the localized lake effect snow for Oologah and to a lesser extent Grand Lake through tomorrow morning. As a result, an additional one half inch of snow accumulation is possible from the Lake Oologah lake effect snow band while a quarter of an inch will be possible within the Grand Lake lake effect band."

Awfully kind of you Euro.

12Z RDPS, Canadian keeps increasing amounts and finally catching on.

Not quite as high this run, although, am I really going to complain at 9-10 inches of snow? Of course not XD But gotta watch the trend carefully. We were getting an additional few inches because the system wrapped up some and gave us a broad deformation zone, that's not happening as much in these recent runs of the GFS, so hopefully it stops here and maybe even wiggles back west some.

12Z NAM looking more like the long term models.

Jomo beat me to it. The first system is roughly 9.5 inches for that map on the first storm.

Euro letting me go to bed happy tonight. Still looking good.

12Z RDPS btw. Falling in line with the area of snow, just low on totals for many. But a big step in the right direction for the Canadian.

1st storm, GFS

Interesting because it gives western OK(currently projected to get the most) the very least. The system moves in early Sunday before Sunset and exits quickly. Hence the lighter totals for some.

9.5 inch for the Sun/Mon storm. Not bad!

We are living in a simulation.

First storm. 18ZGFS

Winter Storm watches blossoming up from North Texas and points north.

TSA Discussion. Now to the meat of the forecast. Model data continues to be very consistent for days (scary) in bringing the next upper storm system into the Plains Sunday and Monday. Looks like a very favorable setup synoptically (coupled jets, upper diffluent flow) for a major winter storm, with the feel of February 2011. We have a deepening arctic air mass in place, and favorable dynamics to draw in moisture and produce lift over this cold air. Snow ratios will be increasing with time, potentially rising to 20:1 or higher across the north, while QPF will be higher in the south. So it appears that all of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas will be under the gun. The snow, which could be heavy at times, will combine with gusty north winds to produce a lot of blowing and drifting of snow and dangerous travel conditions. That said, we are still several days out and details can change so it`s still too early to get specific with amounts and locations. A Special Weather Statement has been issued with a Winter Storm Watch likely coming tonight or tomorrow. If that wasn`t enough another system will follow it on its heels and will spread more snow over our area late Tuesday into Wednesday. The winds will not be as strong with this system. It is a one-two punch of sorts. In the wake of this system, a pattern change is expected, with the blocking pattern finally breaking down and evolving into a low- amplitude progressive regime. We will warm up eventually, once operation snowmelt is completed.

NAM ramping up at hour 63.