StormChazer

Latest run of the HRRR gives us a lone supercell to watch for in OK. I'm considering leaving Tulsa to wait around Pauls Valley to see if anything fires.

Wow! My wife had that earlier out in far east OK. HUGE sleet pellets.

Winter Storm Watch for entire Tulsa CWA. ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy mixed wintry precipitation possible. Total sleet and snow accumulations of up to around one inch and ice accumulations of around one half of an inch possible. * WHERE...Portions of east central, northeast and southeast Oklahoma and northwest and west central Arkansas. * WHEN...From Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...At least two rounds of wintry precipitation are expected Wednesday morning through Thursday afternoon. Sleet and freezing rain are expected to be the most impactful precipitation types with light snow also possible in some area

NAM starting to come into range. Obviously there’s no dispute here on a winter storm, more just the location and intensity. Because this is looking like a prolonged event, I think the NAM is going to show us some insanely high precip amounts(not like that’s a shock). But will tone it down. At the same time I expect some(not all) of the global models to uptick their amounts some.

“Confidence is high in troughing developing through the western CONUS early next week and also with the aforementioned seasonably strong cold front. Additionally, the corridor of deep moisture aligned along the frontal zone is forecast to largely remain in place and possibly increase in magnitude. A likely scenario is one or more lead shortwave troughs preceding the primary trough axis ahead of its ejection across the central CONUS mid to late week. The combination of multiple periods of lift tapping deep moisture and lifting it atop a cold airmass is likely to lead to a wintry mix across the region Wednesday through Thursday. Additionally, the pattern is typical for a strong warm layer to develop atop the cold pool leading to all precip types as precip expands northward. Signals in deterministic data at this range also support impressive precip rates with convective elements already being modeled will north into the cold air. The potential for impactful snow, sleet, and ice accumulation continues to increase. Widely varying and frequently updated modeled winter weather totals will likely be shown over the coming days. Remember to identify a trusted source of weather information to monitor forecast trends.

TSA on next week. "The upper pattern toward the middle to latter part of the week could bring a messy winter weather episode to the region. Large positive tilt upper trough in the West allows a more shallow arctic airmass to ooze south down the Plains Tuesday into Wednesday. Lift and moisture then overrun this cold air Wednesday into Thursday, with some decent ice and sleet possible depending on where the surface freezing line lies and the thermal profile shakes out aloft. The western trough then ejects into the Plains Thursday with a mixed bag of precip types changing to all snow and possibly heavy somewhere. Stay tuned as these details will continue to be refined in the coming days. There is potential for this storm to be pretty impactful for the latter half of next week."

Yeah, HRRR keeps creeping south giving me more and more sleet here north of Tulsa tomorrow morning, will be interesting to see what happens. Some of those heavier storms could throw sleet down before it’s even freezing, something to watch. As for the GFS next week. Sheesh!

Looking past tonight/tomorrow morning's event, TSA had this to say. "The forecast could turn pretty messy winter weather wise for the middle to latter part of next week. Large positive tilt upper trough in the West allows a more shallow arctic airmass to ooze south down the Plains like spilled milk, while lift increases over the top in a sw flow warm advection regime ahead of ejecting trough. This could spell trouble, but these details will continue to be refined in the coming days." Translation, we have ourselves a potential setup for an ice storm later next week. The storm in question. GFS Canadian Euro Still a ways out, but there is a consensus in the models regarding a favorable setup for our area.

Enjoy it! I’ll take an inch of mood flakes here in Tulsa If we can manage!

4.5 inches here in Owasso, but we have had this heavy band of snow over us now and I’m thinking we are going to pick up another 3 between the last couple hours and the next 1-2. It’s coming down hard.

Thought my fun was over as we didn’t get any snow all day today, but then couple hours ago it started snowing and pretty big flakes too! Probably have added another inch or so, and I’m thinking the way it’s rotating, we get this last band for another inch.

Lots of drifting here in Owasso.

Owasso has been between two bands of snow most of this time, so I’m not SUPER happy about that, but still plenty of time to go!

Snowing in Owasso! Not super heavy, it’s light and fluffy snow, but there’s a moderate to heavy band on its way to Tulsa.

I didn't even see it on the radar...interesting. I would think that means the layer is cool all the way through though.

It's nothing profound, but you can see the sleet on the rooftops and my car from this AM.

Thanks for the great update! I live right on the Collinsville/Owasso line and woke up at 4:30 to sleet blowing into my window, sounded like someone hurling sand at my house lol.

NAM and HRRR both getting on board with that 2nd wave of precip and giving 9+ inches for lots of people.

Heavy sleet here in Owasso. Woke me up.

Been noticing on the HRRR, sleet and freezing rain moving into Tulsa more and more with each run on the early morning wave.

TSA upping the amounts on their page.

Canadian backed off a little on amounts, but still showing 6+ inches.

I figured it would lol. My assumption is that it's generated by using a blend of models, and they don't actively make it themselves. So sometimes it has an error, or grabs an erroneous model run that sends it to the moon, etc. Point is, I don't usually take much stock in their decision support page lol.

You know...there is technically blizzard criteria wind gusts associated with this during the heavy snow..

Also, their decision support page went off the charts