KoalaBeer

Haven’t seen much from there. Looking at obs winds were out of the N or NE all day so surge shouldn’t of been an issue. They got some hurricane force gusts however. https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KSRQ.html

Im so confused by this post. Storm surge is exactly what Fort Myers is experiencing. Punta Gorda got blasted by those backside eyewall winds but looks like they avoided significant surge. Also that video you posted has “City of Naples” written on the side of the door of the fire truck. People need to stop trusting these twitter posts from random accounts without verification.

Huh? At least Camille went over western Cuba but the track similarities end there. Not many good analogs to go off of here in modern record keeping.

Scorching hot at my parents place in Hampton right by I-95 when I picked up the dog after work. A beautiful 80-85 right on the coast at my apartment a few miles away. Pretty crazy temperature gradient.

NH seacoast delivers again

Getting hit pretty good here. Possible micro burst just north of me. That lowering was really surging as it passed by me.

Pretty much the main reason I do all my snowboarding in ME and NH. VT mountains are a bitch to get to from the seacoast. Beautiful day here in Hampton with some nice 3ft waves. Might have to take the surfboard out for the first time this year now that the waters slightly warmer.

Waterville is a good mountain. I should be there as well for the demo. Maybe we’ll have to meet up for a beer and a lap.

Wait George isn’t on board? Is hell freezing over? Im happy as long as this stays snow for the ski areas. Conditions are good up there right now.

My driveway is either bare ground or a 4 foot drift.

5+ hours of blizzard conditions now, .06mi visibility I couldn’t tell you if I got 15 inches of snow or 25 with the wind and drifting.

Another one from Hampton. Got to be pushing 2-3” / hr now.

Quick video from my place in Hampton NH

Same at KPSM. Complete whiteout here on the coast of NH, not even going to bother and try a measure with the wind. Grass exposed in some areas and 3 foot drifts in others…

No snow here, but some serious coastal flooding in Hampton. Worst I’ve seen it in two years.

Yikes.

TOR warning in Maine. Looks pretty impressive on radar. Wouldn’t be surprised at all if it’s on the ground. Looks to have lofted some debris in the air on CC.

Looks like I’m in a pretty good spot today. Might take a drive over towards Manchester/Derry NH later if I’m done with work in time. That area could be nice, they typically get it good around there. Then again the seacoast is nice for the unrestricted views... Mesoscale Discussion 1754 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021 Areas affected...portions of MA...NH and ME Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 151559Z - 151800Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon. Damaging wind gusts and some hail will be the main hazards. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed by 18z. DISCUSSION...Convection is increasing ahead of a cold front near the Canadian border at midday. Stronger heating across southern New England to the south/west of a surface warm front has allowed for more rapid destabilization compared to much of ME, which remains under heavy stratus. As the upper trough shifts northeast through the afternoon, and the cold front slowly advances east/southeast, the warm front will lift northeast across ME. This will allow surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to near 70 F to overspread much of New England, and MLCAPE is forecast to increase to around 500-1500 J/kg by mid-afternoon. Strong vertical shear is already in place over the region, with effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt evident in regional VWP data. Deep-layer southwesterly flow parallel to the surface front will support mainly lines/bowing segments with damaging wind gusts being the main hazard expected through this evening. However, southerly near-surface winds will contribute to somewhat enlarged low-level hodographs. Rich boundary-layer moisture also will support stronger 0-3 km instability from southern portions of VT/NH into far southern ME/northern MA. A tornado or two could occur across this area, especially if any more discrete cellular activity can persist.

Except for the fact this was very well predicted by the models, local NWS offices and the WPC alike. I can’t help but feel we need a major overhaul on how these extreme threats are broadcast to the public. When a major blizzard comes through NYC travel is restricted to all non-emergencies...why wasn’t the same thing done here? It makes me really sad and angry that I think a lot of fatalities could have been prevented here if the threat was better conveyed. Jeff Masters post on YCC today hits the point pretty hard. https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/09/northeast-pummeled-with-colossal-flooding-destructive-tornadoes/ “ New York’s new governor, Kathy Hochul – forced to deal with every political leader’s nightmare, a weather disaster, after just one week in office – called the rain “far more than anyone expected.” In fact, despite many residents getting caught unaware, the potential for high-end flooding was amply predicted by the National Weather Service. A flash flood watch for the New York City area for Wednesday afternoon was issued by the local National Weather Service office an amazing 48 hours in advance: at 3 p.m. Monday. The watch warned that “widespread 3 to 5 inches of rain is forecast with locally higher amounts possible.” By Tuesday afternoon, the NWS Weather Prediction Center had enclosed the New York area in a top-end high-risk area for flood-producing rains for Day 2, Wednesday. The Weather Prediction Center also noted that some locations had a 95% chance of seeing rainfall amounts that would be expected once a century or less. It’s possible that distractions from other major news events pulled the focus away, or that users who rely mainly on icon-based depictions or brief messages from apps rather than narrative detail may not have grasped the extreme nature of the flood threat. Moreover, if residents of New York had heard only that “remnants of Ida” were approaching, they might not have seen the situation as being especially worrisome, especially after multiple flood events already this summer. Perhaps it’s time to reconsider how top-end flood threats are depicted and disseminated to an audience that may be inured to them.“

Good points. I don’t know the answer either. What I do know is a lot of his previous analysis has been within ~10mph or so of being correct. Either way I’d guess EF3 but as @CoastalWxjust said just because they are nice houses, doesn’t mean they were constructed all to well. It will be interesting to see the survey that’s for sure.

Sam Emerson does some really good and highly accurate radar analysis of some of these TORs. You know it’s bad when the top three analogs were storms in MS, OK, and SD.