Jump to content

Henry's Weather

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,591

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Henry's Weather

  1. Henry's Weather
    Yeah I don’t really know about the energy economy at scale, but if forecasts are consistently a few degrees more accurate, then of course energy companies would prefer those forecasts because over the long run, they are more prepared to efficiently provide energy
  2. Henry's Weather
    Seems like it’s worse at vorticity but better at geopotential heights. Worth noting also that 20% increase in temp forecast accuracy three days out should have sizable implications for the energy industry, no?
  3. Henry's Weather
    From Nature: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08252-9#Fig3 “As shown in the scorecard of Fig. 3, the forecasts of GenCast are significantly more skilful (P < 0.05) than that of ENS on 97.2% of our 1,320 variable, lead time and vertical level combinations (and 99.6% of targets at lead times greater than 36 h)“ Seems like a significant improvement on its face, would leave the more technical analysis of the graphic to those more knowledgeable
  4. Henry's Weather
    Right. Instead, we just sit here, look at 360 hr charts, and go like “aw shucks, hopefully it’s wrong” because we (or maybe just me personally) can’t put our finger on the driving causes
  5. Henry's Weather
    I feel the same way, would be awesome to have my finger on the pulse. I’d imagine you’d have to have about 17 data sites saved in a folder that gets checked daily, along with probably a weekly long-term blogging practice. Otherwise, important signals get lost and the whole enterprise isn’t even worth it
  6. Henry's Weather
    In other news, it seems that that Alaskan ridge might regenerate after a mid-month warmup. We also enter phase 7 in late Dec, but we may need to wait a few weeks for any other good chances
  7. Henry's Weather
    There’s a degree of schadenfreude that NYC folks can get when New England snow lovers get disappointed, because they themselves are so used to missing out. Especially during otherwise favorable +NAO patterns. It’s best to just let them troll as they cry in 50 degree average high temps
  8. Henry's Weather
    Attention-seeking behavior is for kids!
  9. Henry's Weather
    We were just there over Columbus day - hope you got to chat with the art vendors down the alley there
  10. Henry's Weather
    Nice insight
  11. Henry's Weather
    Hopefully this is good analysis, Webb is somewhat of a prosperity preacher. If he is wrong, he can lean on the “likely”
  12. Henry's Weather
    I call it “biblical traffic”. Yeah, that was one hell of a commute back. We got through 5 episodes of the S-Town podcast during the latter half of the commute, for some perspective. Some of my friends opted to perch out the window and smoke cigarettes during the crawl. Was a pretty all-American day for us, and one that I won’t forget ever.
  13. Henry's Weather
    I was almost certainly in the same exact traffic jam - we left Groveton NH at around 4:30 and arrived in Cambridge at 2 AM
  14. Henry's Weather
    Woah… how did we start arguing about the senate?
  15. Henry's Weather
    Off topic, but what benefits do you get from running?
  16. Henry's Weather
    Atlantic optimal, pacific suboptimal, especially considering CC decrease in baroclinicity. Accurate summary?
  17. Henry's Weather
    I’d be a fool to expect otherwise, but there does exist some opportunity for an event somewhere. Obvious caveat: it is April, chances of something appreciable in SNE are sub 5%
  18. Henry's Weather
    Big neg NAO reducing, PNA pumping. There’s a shot at something for sure
  19. Henry's Weather
    Ho lee shit
  20. Henry's Weather
    This is a dumb tweet
  21. Henry's Weather
    Pulling for ya
  22. Henry's Weather
    Valid point, but if you had used 1950-2011 data, this would be all red.
  23. Henry's Weather
    Right, it’s not that people can’t want outcomes. It’s that logical discourse allows us to find which outcomes are actually most likely. Argumentation needs to have primary salience for why someone thinks something is going to happen. Otherwise, the scientific enterprise is not happening, for better or for worse. God, this conversation makes me want to start a blog a la @weatherwizand others. Just some sort of objective metric.
  24. Henry's Weather
    From an intellectual basis, sure, but calling a winter storm window and receiving a KU during that window must also be immensely gratifying. But sure, ideally you would nest the correct sensible weather prediction in an accurate assessment of the long-wave pattern and its flux
  25. Henry's Weather
    I personally think it’s better to make predictions and see how they fare against reality than to never make predictions because of the inevitability of being wrong in some way. I think more is learned from trial and error than no trial at all. I think it’s a trait related to psychological conscientiousness, if I had to speculate
×
×
  • Create New...