Henry's Weather

Look at the dance between polar and mid-level lobes

Check out this fetch... I mean, this looks quite good for significant weather.

While taking this into consideration of course

Notice the difference in presence of polar lobe. Could make a large sensible WX difference

18z NAM has a far healthier H5 shortwave and downstream heights structure (peeling upward) than 12z GFS does, whose paltry QPF printout still leaves me quite stumped.

I understood what QPF meant... i was curious about whether you meant anomalous for the type of look (less than one would expect due to thermal prof.), or anomalous in general (compared to climo instantaneous norms). More specifically, my question was about the apparent descrepancy between favorable upper-level charts and unfavorable low-level ones

18z NAM (I know...) looks like it could be pretty potent. Stronger SW and PV lobe seems further north.

What do you mean by QPF anomaly?

@ORH_wxman in particular, I'm curious about your opinion

In other words, if we were only forecastint based off of H5, H7, and H85, would we call this a near miss?

Not to break the flow of the debate here, but does someone mind explaining to me how this progression is not verbatim snowstorm across SNE?

"The perfect storm at day 7 hasn't been reproduced in the past few hours! How could this happen? Who could see this coming?" Might be falling on deaf ears, but its same same. Damn. Playbook. Every time. I guess people like the ups and downs? Or they truly just can't see or understand that most modeled snowstorms don't come true. If it happens, cool. **It looks like a conducive synoptic-scale pattern for a chance of snow.** Maybe this is like telling people to not be heartbroken over sports since they don't matter.

Sub 990 on the benchmark, pretty good

Imagine if 0z hadn't been a HECS. I'll take it!

My main research interest would be deltaSD case studies. "In the 5 day period surrounding a +-1 flux in PNA or NAO, how often does significant east coast cyclogenesis occur?" Or something like that

That superbowl was made crap by that final call... unfortunate

This is a really great find. It's best to train our minds on the boundary parameters that "create the box" where an event can take place, rather than focus on the ultimate final product of all the various parts interacting in high resolution. Ie: at day 7, tracking ensemble telleconnector flux is the most prudent deployment of our attention if we wish to keep expectations in check, while also tracking meaningful ensemble trends. We can get away from the flashy colors and towards the overarching mechanism. I'm sure someone can use the magnitude of telleconnector flux for the three principle domains to find "magnitude" analogs, even if they aren't necessarily perfect structural analogs.

Wow

We should go in to the 12z euro watch party knowing that most likely, the verbatim output will not be as sexy as 0z. We should focus on ensembles this far out, and not live and die by vicissitudes. Signed, Someone who can lose serious sleep over storms modeled a week in advance (see March 2017)

Scenario 3 stills falls into scenario 2

Remember folks, there are only 2 ways for this to pan out. Scenario 1: Model locks onto it at 7 days. Starts to look worse. Gets better. Have storm. Scenario 2: Model locks onto storm at D7. Starts to look worse. Don't have storm.

Dipole is a great way to describe it. Not sure if that's standars practice

Zr in Hyde Park

Thumping here in Hyde Park