Henry's Weather

What do you mean by this

2017 was a dream in that regard

Obv I am not tip. If NAO is static, determining factors on sensible weather will be highly correlated to the more unstable PNA index, since when you lower degrees of freedom, you can more accurately correlate outcomes to the degrees of freedom that remain (as the entire domain of outcomes is reduced when one degree of freedom is static). In essence, if NAO is taken care of, then indices that are oscillating such as PNA are better for differentiating sensible weather outcomes

In third grade, I wrote a little novel for my teacher (about 40 pages, with size 18ish font if I recall?) about a blizzard which rendered travel impossible for a month, and that sort of apocalyptic scenario. Needless to say, he was concerned but amused.

I will say that I'd like to start a blog a la your stuff at some point, after a few more years of tracking and posting/lurking. You downplay your writing's influence, but I've personally been a fan since about 2017, so I think it's accurate to state that your process has influenced my thinking somewhat, especially with regards to pattern recognition as opposed to the more technical specific processes which still elude me. You've mentioned getting at forecasting through a information synthesis and identifying relevant structures/patterns style as opposed to starting from the mechanistic level and working your way up. I think I have a similar process, meaning that I enjoy learning about specific mechanisms as they are entrained within larger, more qualitative schemata

I read a lot of your shit so probably has some influence on my process/pattern recog.

I'm feeling the spirit, so I'm going to make a proclamation (especially since the pope seems to be absent, gotta step up): I am about 80% confident that there will be significant EC cyclogenesis during the period from Dec 16 to Dec 21. Prior to that, I think there will be a lower impact storm, probably an inland/NNE event (btween Dec 12-14) which forms a 50-50 low that will entrain future cyclogenesis to the east coast, as well as **brings the baroclinic zone farther south**. I'm not a professional nor a seasoned forecaster, so I only stand to gain reputation or to retain my rank as a member of the "Weenie" class. Dec 12th/13th storm: - coincident with PNA positive delta Dec 10-12 - Coincident with NAO retrograte from Greenland to Davis Strait - poor antecendent airmass/lack of well-positioned baroclinic zone leads to angst for EMATT weenies In between: - renewal of cold - establishment of favorable baroclinic zone - establishment of favorable confluence For December 16-21 storm: This will be the storm that occurs as Pac ridging that starts near the 10th peaks and begins to disintegrate. Things could go wrong, disclaimers, allegedly-speak, yada yada. I think that this is a period with high potential. If I were to guess storm evolution, I would predict something southern-stream, sort of like a Dec 2009 deal. The coincidence of ridge peaking and decaying with NAO decaying and retrograding is very promising. I accept any weenie tags thrown my way, and it will be fun to verify my prophecy. If the pope is gone, i sorta feel like a deranged and less coherent Martin Luther, yet instead of nailing my theses to the door of a church, I am scrawling in red crayon my manic and redbull-fueled ramblings all over the walls of the hallowed halls housing the northeastern American weather intelligentsia. Fun fact: Martin Luther was constipated for most of his life. This is another differentiator: my access to diuretics, as hinted at above, sets me apart from Martin Luther in this specific dimension

I think what's super interesting is blocking decay/reload patterns. How a block decays and retrogrades or doesn't retrograde. You have a great point about how absolute anomalies are not indicative of dynamic interactions, like the kind of dynamic interaction that Archambault looks at. What would be cool is to look at the coincidence of NAO/AO Westward decay and a PNA spike (positive delta) (there's probably literature out there about that), simply because that's a signal that's being born out in the ensembles for mid-Dec.

is 1997 this type?

Gotcha. I wonder if there is a more useful numerical heuristic out there, just to start to get a decent analogue set to pick the best fits from.

Some modified cP air, not fresh artic stuff. It'll do, but not the prime stuff

One limiting factor seems to be an absence of cross polar flow. I know others have pointed this out, but worth repeating. Not gonna be highs in the low 20s on the coastal plain

Someone should do some sort of data parsing to find periods that are -3 SD AO in December

Delicious. Can't draw it up better. No seasoning needed mm mm MM.

Yeah, my hypothesis was that increased warming leads to decreased polar-equator twmp gradient since GW tends to disproportionally warm the north pole, causing the increased disruptability (more variable 500 mb heights for ex.). I wasn't disputing the warming aspect.

Excess warming leads to decreased polar-equator temp gradient, which might mean that zonal flow is more disruptable (as less of a temp gradient means jet is weaker). Pinging mets for verification.

Thats nuts

This is a weather discussion forum, not an academic journal

I feel like you totally can

nowadays I just don't sleep lol

Now enjoy that vacation!

I used to wake up at 4 am to catch the beginning of the local news whenever there was a storm coming

"Too many indices, not enough mics"

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/tnh.shtml

just look at it. its cold