Henry's Weather

Seems to lead to a nice setup for the 1/29 threat though

I have a hypothesis that I'd like to test for the next upcoming weeks: I think if New England is to get any decent snows, the primary needs to track at or north of Detroit. Anything lower will be a whiff because of the strong, southern block. Just posting this here to verify later.

is that not a suppression look verbatim?

Stolen from another thread:

Ah I see, a dictatorship of the mods. They'll never remove our banter thread!

Vladimir?

I thought it was a nina thing to get strewn-out shortwaves, no?

fallacious

gambler's fallacy

I think what you're describing is something like Feb 2, 2015?

Euro sucks for the 26th

Moderate event on gfs for 1/26 verbatim. Late, sloppy transfer.

Ah, gotcha

Probably meant meteorological winter

Quite a few, yes. If we don't snow by Feb 1, I might just become one myself.

At least it seems like we'll get some cold air soon, which is definitely an improvement. Looks like the -EPO shot didn't disappear as we approached it in time. 4 days out, and solid -2 to -2.5 sigma values still forecast, and seems to stay at least slightly negative through almost the end of January. Cross-ensemble package agreement here.

My guess is that we should see more misses than hits for the next couple weeks but if this becomes n-stream dominated and we cut out that stream of s/ws from the SW, the upside increases for a nice miller B event into February. It's patterns like this that make me wish models only went out 5 days. Constant barrage of s/ws in a decent pattern, but many miss. Can be frustrating as a model-watcher. We'll probably get a decent hit with that anomalous NAO (though not as foolproof as a good pac, still positively correlated with snowy patterns) but the specifics aren't clear yet, of course.

I just wanna see flakes in the air and some snow on the ground at this point.

that forecast hr panel is not the best, I agree. Needs a slider

pivotalweather has it out much earlier than TT

Read my mind...

you're the guy who gave everyone weenie tags in the NYC thread the other day. i shit you not, ever single post i read was weenie tagged by you lol.

thought I noticed a flake or two this morning, but was pretty sure it was snow-deprivation hallucinations

Weenie miller b on the long-range gfs again. Not that I care or anything...you guys believe me, right? In all seriousness, I feel like I don't trust anything from the southern stream to not be total crap by the time it reaches us on the coast. These shortwaves traversing the country remind me of summer thunderstorms as they approach the coast.

Saw this today. We pray.