Henry's Weather

Pretty map:

Mesoscale Discussion 0052 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 PM CST Mon Feb 01 2021 Areas affected...portions of far eastern Pennsylvania...central and northern New Jersey...far southeast New York...Long Island...Connecticut...Rhode Island...Massachusetts Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 011843Z - 020045Z SUMMARY...Up to 2-4 inch/hr snowfall rates will be possible across portions of the lower Hudson Valley and southern New England this afternoon, with occasional blizzard conditions possible across Long Island. Portions of far eastern Pennsylvania into central New Jersey will continue to experience a heavy sleet/snow mix. DISCUSSION...A surface low continues to gradually deepen while tracking slowly north-northeastward just off the Jersey shoreline as a 110+ knot 300 mb jet traverses the Mid Atlantic/New England Coastline. Strong 925-700 mb warm-air advection ahead/north of the surface low continues to support ample mixed wintry precipitation/heavy snowfall potential amidst a sub-freezing tropospheric vertical profile and deep-layer ascent provided by coupled low-level convergence with the surface low and upper-level divergence by the strong 300 mb jet (per latest Mesoanalysis). Latest KDIX/KOKX dual-polarimetric radar depicts a an east to west snow/sleet transition zone roughly from KLOM to KISP. Latest METAR observations also show 1-3 inch/hr snowfall rates ongoing just north of this transition zone, and the heavier snow/sleet are expected to gradually translate northward through the afternoon. METAR sites also show 25 knot sustained northeasterly winds prevailing across Long Island, along with heavy snow and higher gusts noted. As such, brief and localized blizzard conditions are expected to persist. Latest HREF, SREF, and last few runs of the HRRR suggest that relatively lighter snowfall rates mixed with sleet will be the predominant mode of precipitation from far eastern PA/central NJ southward this afternoon, with a transition of sleet likely across portions of Long Island and brief/localized blizzard conditions still possible. Farther north across parts of southern New England, the heavier band of wintry precipitation will progress northward, with strong 700 mb warm-air advection and a near-saturated dendritic growth zone supporting 1-3 inch/hr snowfall rates this afternoon, as suggested by high-resolution model guidance. A few brief instances of 4 inch/hr rates also cannot be ruled out.

nah, Teele. I used "directly" loosely haha. Although now, it might be accurate

uncanny to see someone on this board who probably lives within a mile of me.

Heh, I know it's gonna collapse when the precip rolls in, but fun to see the cf directly over my head.

Yeah, I'm still optimistic here for sure. I wasn't expecting precip until like 3

Yeah, sadly it's a slow-moving precip shield, because we're racing the dryslot clock

Great feed, NYC getting walloped. Hopefully we can get some of that intensity here.

HREF probs of a 12"+.

A passing flurry or two in the 'Ville

Is this a precursor to the eventual coastal front?

Hopefully adjacent to an exhaust pipe

Eek

Pops up out of nowhere 48 hours out!

WTF???

Any obs thread yet?

interesting take on color schema

I do miss the years where we would get several 4-8 SWFE events, or lots of clippers. I love these big events as much as the next guy, but a nice 4 inch thump at dawn does it for me too. These years it's more of a feast or famine mode, it seems.

12 inches on the nose. Optimistic for a foot, leaving room for maybe 16 inches if everything works out, which would be the most since.

Hoping for the biggest storm since 3/13/18, which was around 20 inches. Cautiously optimistic for a foot here.

18z nam was too far north in general, heights ahead of the system were modeled a hair more north than forecast.

18z NAM initialized too far north with H5 low.

Too late, I already called the weather gods and had them lock that in

Cautiously expecting 8-12" of blue snow here, with the NAM solution being the upside

LOCK IT