Henry's Weather

I do miss the years where we would get several 4-8 SWFE events, or lots of clippers. I love these big events as much as the next guy, but a nice 4 inch thump at dawn does it for me too. These years it's more of a feast or famine mode, it seems.

12 inches on the nose. Optimistic for a foot, leaving room for maybe 16 inches if everything works out, which would be the most since.

Hoping for the biggest storm since 3/13/18, which was around 20 inches. Cautiously optimistic for a foot here.

18z nam was too far north in general, heights ahead of the system were modeled a hair more north than forecast.

18z NAM initialized too far north with H5 low.

Too late, I already called the weather gods and had them lock that in

Cautiously expecting 8-12" of blue snow here, with the NAM solution being the upside

LOCK IT

NAM is probably best case scenario, we're all under the firehose until it occludes and moves north. That is, unless we can shift the whole evolution 100 miles east. Speaking for ESNE here.

18z significantly improved, about 25 miles SE

With helicity like that, a very high chance for winter twisters! Almost guaranteed, even.

oh I don't really care, just nice to see that lift at our latitude

By the way, is anyone noticing shades of Dec 30, 2000, with that Hudson valley pivot? Hope not

Does lift either below or above the DGZ still contribute to heavier rates?

Nice omega from 18z HRRR 6pm tommorow

Any guesses as to where the cf sets up? My money is on it lifting to 128 at the height of the event.

Snow begets snow, especially in February

Don't worry, I'm the least experienced forecaster on here. Also holding out hope for a final push east.

First forum forecast

Just bring that area of 18-24 that much northeast every run until 12z tomorrow please. Wagons east!

that looks quite toothsome

January 2018 was the best storm here since January 2015. I remember waking up at dawn to some nice OES and I knew we'd be doing well that day. When that first band came in, it was instand snow growth, and this band never really left. It must've pivoted over my head for 3 hours or so, picking up about 10 inches in that time. Snow rates alone, the winds from that bomb were extremely powerful. Drifts of several feet everywhere. Very difficult to measure this snow, but we must've accumulated somewhere around 16-18 inches. Here are some pics:

Locked

we just need a shift of like 75-ish miles east in the upper air for us to really be in play for some serious amounts. This time around, CT people are also hoping for a Juno-slide lol.

Even if we flip here, I can't imagine we don't have a good few hours of some heavy stuff in the afternoon. 2"-per-hour stuff.