Henry's Weather

we pray

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSBoston/status/1397642581501116417 Watches up in ESNE

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0750.html

So did the EML plume move out too quickly?

Kinda like this threat

Dry humor, thanking the temps and dews for this severe threat

Severe Threat... Many of the criteria we look for with regard to severe weather development in the region is forecast to be in place tomorrow, though as typical, some of the signals are not as clear. So I don`t believe it will be an over the top block buster event, but it will be busy for a few hours late afternoon into the evening. On the plus side, we`ll definitely have enough surface instability with CAPE values expected to be 1000-1500 J/kg across the interior by early afternoon. Thank you temperatures around 90F and dewpoints in the mid 60s F. Conflicting guidance from the GFS and NAM as the NAM suggests a weak EML tomorrow with decent mid-level lapse rates. GFS is much weaker. 0-6km shear is progged to be around 35kt, so it`s enough to help get convection organized, but on the lower end of it being in a sweet spot. Model soundings show weak capping across the area which will help to keep convection squashed until the upper level trough gets closer and helps to erode that cap. After which time we should see rapid convective development. Looking at various SPC parameters from SREF and HREF, I see signals in the Supercell Composite and even the SigTor parameter. Noted the 12z HREF shows decent updraft helicity signals, especially in the 20z-02z time range, suggestive of the potential for rotating storms. SPC has a 5% risk for a tornado across the western third of Massachusetts, and I have no reason to argue with that. As typical this time of year, the southwest winds will advect a slightly cooler and definitely more stable airmass across the southeast portion of the forecast area. So it looks like the primary severe threat area is from LWM to ORH to HFD and points west. Some question as to the timing, as the various hi-res models to differ by several hours as to when the convection will develop and move into our region. Best estimate at this point is that 4-8pm will be the peak time of activity for us, though some convection may start as early as 2pm in the Berkshires. Given the stable airmass in southeastern areas, and the fact that it will be after sunset once it reaches far eastern areas, thinking that convection will go elevated and quickly weaken, but showers and a few rumbles of thunder may still continue across SE MA, Cape and Islands until after midnight. Took a blend of models for the hourly timing of the PoPs. Kept the mention of gusty winds with t-storms during the evening. Can`t rule out some hail with stronger storms, but that seems to be a lower chance.

Hopeful we get into the action. Having lived on the coast for most of my life, I've been desensitized by the marine layer crushing my hopes and dreams, but that extra 25 miles west might help!

How does this compare to that August threat last summer? I drove all the way out to Poughkeepsie for that one.

Got a few rumbles out here. I'm used to everywhere else in SNE getting storms, not my location having the only storm in SNE

Squall line rolling in.

1.5" OTP (on the patio)

from snow to rain or rain to snow?

Ripping in West Concord

System is forecast to retrograde NW, right?

Snow

This will be incredibly interesting to watch unfold. There's a less than zero chance my new locale dumps for a few hours while Boston Metro rains, and it'd be nice to be on the winning side for once haha

Yes, that's what I meant, thank you. I confused myself with 12/9/05 haha

Does this remind anyone of December 9th of this year?

How expectant can you really be on the 16th of April?

Pic?

0z GFS pretty much holds serve; slight tick west

Cautiously optimistic for a chance of some snow here in Concord. It's nice to be outside of the Boston metro for this one.

ahhhh, already loving my new location.