CheeselandSkies

LOL, I like the "storm" and "developing gale" notations across the central CONUS.

Never thought I'd be one to be looking forward to snow in late March, but it has been so blasted dry we need all the precip we can get any way we can get it.

Well in any case the Plains especially along and west of I-35 need all the rain they can get between now and May.

Yuck. Shades of 2014, except with less snow and thus a looming drought in the mix. Fun. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Ugh. WHEN is it going to wane?

12Z GFS solution still maintains a fairly robust severe threat for next Sunday along the I-35 corridor in OK/southern KS. Although, it is rather disconcerting to see the surface low and its associated warm sector basically get crushed between one cold air mass to its east and another to its northwest, instead of continuing to deepen as it lifts towards the upper Midwest on Monday.

Recent GFS runs would support some degree of severe threat in the southern/central Plains next Sunday, the 25th. Warm sector SRH and EHI took a big jump from the 00z to the 06z run, popping some impressive analogs. Remains to be seen if it has legs, but it's the next thing to watch.

I'd say a tad earlier in the season than ideal for such an active pattern. Much like last year, might run into a problem with not enough moisture recovery between systems, although as it stands right now (one system next Sunday-Monday and then another the following Friday-Saturday) it shouldn't be as much of an issue. I know I've said it before, but it sure would be nice to get a look like that from late April through May one of these years. One thing that the last few years have taught me is that with any given early season setup, actual dewpoint value doesn't matter as much as long as LCL is not too high (not too much of a difference between dewpoint and temperature) and the upper levels are sufficiently cold. The setups in late March-early April '17 that underwhelmed had other issues besides moisture. You get ideal shear profiles and cold upper levels, and marginal-looking surfaced T/Td can get the job done (3/15/16, 2/28/17).

Way too early to take seriously, but 12Z GFS also has a nice little event in IA/MO for Saturday the 24th. That's the 2nd run in a row that suggests another potent system 5-7 days after the first.

Yes, the GFS strongly suggests that St. Patrick's Day weekend into early the following week should be watched closely. Of course the details on location and ceiling of a given day's event are changing wildly from run to run, but the general pattern has been consistent for several days now. In fact, it brings another system behind that one for late in week-2, suggesting this western trough might be good for more than one potent system. Would love to see a look like the 06Z run has for hour 180 through 324 valid for sometime in May, preferably my vacation week. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

At this point I don't want to see any forecasts of a "very cold North America," especially not from King Euro. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

At least someone realizes it's spring. Everybody else still wants to wishcast snow and cold. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Can we please bottle the 300-hour 12Z GFS surface and H5 solution and have it verify in May, preferably when I'm on vacation? Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

That trough on the 126 hour GFS valid for Wednesday evening tho...would put tomorrow to shame if anything close to that verifies. Still a ways out, though.

Currently, the only T-warned cell looks like a QLCS mesovortex and is moving into a bad radar hole. It's one of the several situations around the country where they need to just draw a quadrilateral between KSHV, KPOE, KDGX, and KLZK and place another radar smack dab in the center (not going to happen under the current administration).

Ballsy call by the SPC to introduce a risk area for Day 6. I thought they were being overly bearish holding off on a Day 5 risk area last Thursday valid for today given what the Euro was advertising, but they ended up being spot-on. Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

Amen to that. From '12 through '17, the rule was quality over quantity. Then '17 flipped that on its head. Still waiting for the next event that has a Pilger, Dodge City, Rozel, Bennington, Rochelle-Fairdale, Vilonia, and Elmer-Tipton all lined up from the triple point on down the dryline. Of course, I'd be singing a different tune had I not been one mistake away from missing both Pilger and Rochelle. Add to that, I could have chased February 28th of this year but committed to helping a buddy do clean-up/repair work at the condo he was moving out of because hey, it was FEBRUARY in Wisconsin/northern Illinois. What were the chances, really? Then the upper Midwest essentially shut down during peak season except for that one day in mid-May (the 17th?) which I chased. It featured some of the most insane speed shear seen in that time of year in a long time but something still seemed wonky and the storms had trouble really getting going...then there was June 28th which I also chased but was limited in how far I could go by work constraints and all the quality tornadoes occurred west of my range.

This, so much. Biggest model fail I've personally seen in regards to severe. I'm used to the GFS spitting out lol fantasy storms anytime beyond about 100 hours for severe, winter and tropical but when the Euro was on board I was hearing "Humans Being" in my head. Totally killed my faith in the globals. Not sure it's even worth trying to use them to plan a chasecation this season.

If this forum had that "exploding head" smiley I've seen on others, I'd use that.

Slightly OT (mods, move to a new thread if you feel necessary but please don't delete) but is this how Andrew was so badly underestimated? This blog suggests that the extreme winds being mixed down over land in small pockets of Andrew's eyewall may have been caused by unusual (for TCs) convective processes within the hurricane. Obviously it couldn't be in 1992, but is there any way this sort of thing could be predicted (other factors such as oceanic TCHP, shear, max potential intensity, etc in the path toward landfall being favorable to maintain a high-end hurricane) with enough lead time to add extra urgency to forecasts and thus evacuation orders?

I think it's a mistake to thing of an ERC as a "weakening" process, unless it's combined with unfavorable environmental factors like shear, dry air or cooler SSTs. Yes the maximum sustained winds drop off (temporarily) because they were located in the inner eyewall which goes away. BUT the IKE of the cyclone may stay consistent or even increase as the windfield expands. Add to that, the new/previously "outer" eywall was maturing and likely capable of mixing down everything it had. (points already made by others as I was typing).

It's fascinating to loop the TJUA radar and watch the >40dbz returns in the eyewall orbit the eye.

I'd be nervous if I was on St. Croix in the USVI, too. They're dangerously close to the beeline from Dominica to PR. As far as I can tell last time they really got whacked was in Marilyn ('95).

NHC really needs to create discussions like this and release them to the media, because U.S. landfall chances is the question on everyone's mind for each major tropical system, especially when it's beyond the reach of the cone.