CheeselandSkies

Lol brief tornado already reported in Lafayette County, WI just after 11:30. If confirmed that would be the 4th tornado in WI this year, and at least the second that's occurred without a tornado warning in effect, and I believe ALL of them have occurred without a tornado watch in effect.

For once we actually have deep layer shear and it still manages to be sloppy, lol.

Also, the WI/IL/IA slight is now for tornadoes ONLY, with 5% (marginal for wind & hail) probs across the board. Don't know if I've ever seen that in a non-tropical case before. Suspect this has to do with the mediocre forecast lapse rates. Differential heating really apparent in obs with 78 at SQI (Sterling) compared to 71 at Rockford.

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. Apparently everyone else has already thrown in the towel on today?

Rain is mostly out of northern IL and southern WI, but clouds remain. Would like to see that patch of clearing in eastern Iowa expand into NW/NC IL and SW WI.

06Z 3K NAM pretty impressive with the UH southwest of the Chicago metro this evening. HRRR less so. Need these current storms to scoot out of here and let the sun do its thing. At least it's not a huge, cold outflow spewing MCS.

Tuesday slight risk axed for WI and far northern IL. It's still 2018...

Afternoon MKX AFD one of the more ominous I have read in several years. It's not often they go into this much detail on tornado threats 3 days out. 18Z 3K another step in right direction, although the large convective complex it portrays is less than ideal for chasing, there are some nice UH streaks in there. FWIW, forecast surface low track (along the IA/MN border or just north) is reminiscent of previous surface patterns associated with southern Wisconsin tornado events.

It has been waffling back and forth (as has GFS) with instability and EHI values in the upper Midwest. 12Z was a big step in the right direction over 06Z. Seems to all hinge on what antecedent convection does, as per usual in this neck of the woods. Lapse rates are still kind of mediocre, though and in my experience that is more important than absolute CAPE values. Would like to see them be at least 7c/km throughout the column.

I see where he's coming from, in that it seems like a waste of favorable moisture, low-level and deep layer shear if it's not going to produce long-lived, photogenic tornadoes especially given the dearth of setups that have featured all three conditions overlapping at all this year and most of last. I mean, come on, it's late June and not enough cap to prevent a convective mess?

That would be something if the sequence of the year (in terms of duration/coverage/intensity) occurred after the summer solstice, but it would be in keeping with #2018ing. The signs are there, but signs don't mean much when they usually vanish within 36 hours.

Either no one wants to jinx it or no one cares since it's after the summer solstice and everyone's chasecation is over. GFS has actually been pretty consistent with late next week wanting to get frisky over the Midwest.

2018's atmospheric lamitude knows no bounds. Never seen a year with such consistently underperforming setups, when they can even be considered setups. Meanwhile there was a tornado less than 40 miles from my house yesterday, not even in the marginal risk, while I was having my afternoon nap.

Such typical 2018ing. Only tornado of the day is hundreds of miles from the highest probability area and tornado watch.

Tiniest little sliver of moderate risk I think I've ever seen. Also don't believe I've ever seen the "No major population center in risk area" notation. I suppose that's a good thing...

*Sigh.* Another day of watching Iowa get rocked on radar while WI's weather is zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz. Lake Michigan can suck a fat one.

That is interesting, and worth noting although the detailed tornado record doesn't really go back far enough to draw any definitive conclusions. However, the late '80s dry period didn't come right on the heels of a Super Outbreak, which had been ~10 years prior. Will also be interesting to see if the downswing is followed by a significant upswing as happened in the '90s. Pretty much every year in the first half of that decade except 1994 had impressive tornado activity throughout multiple regions and throughout different times of the spring, and in the fall as well (November 1992). Frankly I think we were lucky to get through that period without a mass-fatality event like occurred twice in 2011, with the impressive numbers of intense, long-track tornadoes in various outbreaks from 1992-93. Back on topic, today's potential in the Dakotas seems to have diminished. GFS continues to tease the possibility of some active days next week, but also the possibility that it could be another dud (speaking here for MBY and areas within daily local chase range - southern WI, IA east of I-35 and IL north of I-80, possibly SE MN along the I-90 corridor).

Had my eye on SD for possibly Friday for a few days now, but much like a similar situation for last Friday it looks to be trending down with time. Low-level shear looks decent at least over a small area but upper-level winds (above 500mb) are quite weak. Could have storms drowning their own updrafts with precip.

I don't MIND chasing the northern Plains (in fact I rather prefer it due to relative proximity to me and less likelihood of crowds), but I'd rather it be south of the international border.

I think the cell crashing in from the south killed that one, but the KS/OK border rider now looks quite interesting... By far the most impressive radar signatures seen in the Plains states all spring today. Excuse me while I beat my head against my desk (again) for taking last week off instead of this one.

Soooooooo this is happening with no TOR out. #DodgeCityII Figures, the week AFTER my vacation, when DDC '16 was the week before.

Well, they threw in a little 10% for NE CO at 1630 so maybe today will grow a pair after all. Figures, just in time for my vacation to end action picks up a little bit, although yesterday and today's threats by themselves probably wouldn't be enough to draw me that far out. I think I'm done taking a week off each spring for "chasing." This is the fourth straight year I've booked one based on late May/early June climo and each year it has coincided with the deadest period possible. I'll just try to take off for the significant troughs as they show up on the models and if they go to crap, then just do something else with the PTO day.

He's yelling "Spin, damn you!"

Well, it's a nasty series of bow echoes/possible tornado outbreak for much of SD/ND/MN Thursday if you believe the 3K NAM. Although, I saw its 48-36 hour sim reflectivity for Saturday over SW IA/NE KS and we all know how that turned out. Shear parameters look pretty marginal across the area on the regular NAM, with only isolated pockets of higher EHI/STP. Not sure what to make of those, except maybe contamination? CAPE should be plentiful, and forecast lapse rates are decent. The question is, am I that desperate for a chase?

So now the question becomes, how did the weeklies get bamboozled so badly back when things were supposedly looking up for the 3rd and 4th weeks of May? Are they biased towards climo or what?