CheeselandSkies

Annoyed I will be missing the severe threats in MBY due to a planned trip to Cleveland to visit family tomorrow through Friday.

Models give some hope for a return to activity on or about June 14-15, at least for northwestern portions of the sub. Will have been a very long four weeks by that time.

It really seems like a mixed bag with ENSO. Feels like in my adult life we've had wet Ninos, dry Ninos, wet Ninas, dry Ninas, warm Ninos, cold Ninos, warm Ninas (most dramatically 2012), and cold Ninas. The strength and timing/speed of transition (TNI) makes the biggest difference.

Reupping this thread as several months later I found a frame in my GoPro footage that shows the left edge of the Cullison-Iuka tornado. This is looking north from NW 10th Street northeast of Cullison. It literally was just this one frame, though. Too bad there wasn't more lightning back-lighting under the base. Nearly all of it was at anvil level.

Chased this day and intercepted the supercell south of Kalona. Clipped the RFD core heading north and then east to keep up with it, getting numerous subtle but noticeable hail pockmarks on the driver's side and hood of my vehicle. The Riverside tornado was occurring off to our south at about this time, I told my chase partner to keep an eye to his right based on the radar presentation but we couldn't see anything through the rain. Ended up with a distant glimpse of a rope funnel as we approached West Liberty from the south. Chasers who were closer confirmed a ground circulation with this, although the NWS's survey has the only other tornado occurring a few minutes earlier and seemingly a bit further west, southwest of Downey.

Southward-moving central WI storms were severe warned into far northwest Dane County, but sputtered into Madison on fumes and have now ceased to exist.

God, I hope not. I barely knew what an air quality advisory was until that year. Then we had them in effect for something like 3 weeks straight.

Gambled on an early to mid-April tour and we lucked out with a couple of decent storms on relatively low-key/conditional days. It was guided by Trey Greenwood and Ethan Moriarty (YouTubers Convective Chronicles and June First, respectively), so it was a lot of fun getting to hang out and talk storms with those guys. However ironically the best was on my way home (I had actually cancelled my flight plans and shortened my time on the tour to drive out to OKC instead, which was the reason I was in my vehicle and able to chase this day, also ironic for someone from Wisconsin I had started the day in Wichita and marathonned 9 hours to see a tornado in Minnesota):

Ya. AI ≠ "good."

Does the clearing now pushing from the eastern half of IA/NE MO into NW IL/SW WI mean anything or is it too little, too late? SPC pretty thoroughly chopped away our severe probabilities on the northern end with the 1630 update.

00Z HRRR: We're so back?

I would agree with you if there was less of a signal for extensive morning convection on the CAMs, however... it's an interesting disagreement between the mesoscale models (NAM, RAP) and the CAMs (3K NAM, HRRR). The former two build a very potent environment into east IA/N IL/even S WI late Monday afternoon/evening, which the latter two fail to do because of the impacts of the aforementioned incessant convection.

Seems like all the CAMs to come into range thus far (including 00Z HRRR) obliterate the warm sector north of about I-70 with incessant convection through midday. A couple days ago there was talk of an abnormally far east EML advection preventing this, what changed?

IIRC Birmingham or Huntsville also did that during the evening of 4/3/74. James Spann essentially did that for 4/27/11 when he told his viewers in advance there were going to be so many tornadoes and warnings it would be tough for them to keep up, so to treat any storm that approaches as dangerous and take cover as if it had a tornado (which on that day in Alabama, it probably did).

Got this guy on Monday. Was on a tornado-warned nasty green HP near Dodgeville/Barneveld/Mt. Horeb, WI Tuesday evening. Other photos from recent chases in my storm chasing Flickr album: https://flickr.com/photos/andywskies/albums/72157655308092622/