CheeselandSkies

Cassville, WI live camera:

Been steadily snowing all morning in Madison but rates and flake sizes have been fairly run-of-the-mill. Hoping one of those heaver bands can make its way up here.

18Z 3K NAM backed off a bit from its prior few runs, down to a "mere" 8.2" for Madison by 18Z (noon CST) Sunday. Even that would be exceptional for before December 1st. However the 15Z RAP was all in on a top-end big dog with 15.5" at the same forecast hour.

I think you have to go all the way back to 2009 for the last true big dog (double digit totals) prior to December 10th in my memory. That one surely had some compaction involved, because it was low-ratio library paste, yet still flirted with or exceeded a foot in most parts of southern Wisconsin.

Looks like Madison is actually riding the north edge of the double digit totals. NAM has gradually come down a bit, from 12.8" to about 10.8" However points in far southern Wisconsin such as Janesville still get in on 12-13."

Didn't see this thread until almost a year later, but I gave you a follow.

Mainly I'm annoyed that because of the way the trough has evolved vs. the GFS and Euro from 3 days ago, there's no outbreak threat anywhere, not even the Lower MS Valley/Dixie, to armchair chase while getting snowed in. Some of the runs were showing upper-50s dews with solid vertical depth getting pulled as far north as northern KS on Sunday or Monday, in the presence of classic meathook hodographs.

I've noticed as of today the models have it amplifying more in the central CONUS rather than the western. This puts a kibosh on potential but it still brings the snow this weekend, at least for me and points north.

12Z GFS rolling...

So what *is* good? And has NWP really regressed that badly in recent years or it is just perception (which I share)? If the former, why?

Long as that doesn't mean winter hangs around till the end of April the following year like it did then.

Euro and GFS both have a broad, highly amplified western trough for the end of the month. Far too early for specifics especially lately, other than to say it "should do something somewhere," from to to . Ceiling might be limited by a tendency for a positively tilted ejection with the stronger flow hanging on the back side, and of course thermodynamics this time of year. Although after days like February 8, 2024 I never count out tornado threats based solely on T/Td values, it looks like this setup would need colder temperatures aloft than what's currently being depicted verbatim to realize adequate instability.

The one in my Corolla has been stuck on for over a year. I check the tires with a pressure gauge periodically and they are always close to spec, if one is low I pump it up but the light never turns off.

At one point it looked like there was a chance Hurricane Leslie of 2018 might shoot the Straight of Gibraltar and become a "medicane," which would have been a fitting conclusion given that system's prior history.

Nothing here this morning, unless I slept through it.