CheeselandSkies

If anything from the ATL side can survive the Godzilla Nino...

Yeah, earlier model runs showing a good MCV threat somewhere from N IL to OH for today were a big tease.

That's actually most of an average yearly count for the state (50-54 depending on the source). Could get a few more Saturday per NAM; although bulk shear will be weak there is a 700mb shortwave trough with ample low-level turning and 0-3KM CAPE.

Consistent miss south for Madison and points north in southern Wisconsin, as well. Naturally Wausau area managed a few severe storms late last night despite being well north of even the marginal risk contour.

Unfortunately more recent HRRR runs pointing toward more of an after dark event again.

12Z HRRR and nest both became rather interesting for this evening from the state line into Chicagoland. Maybe what I thought might happen (in daylight) yesterday, will happen today.

6th anniversary of the Big Wind Bag of 2020:

If only it was all 4 hours earlier.

Looks like a swing and a miss for a peak heating supercell threat today. However 5 years ago OTD was a different story. I remember @Chicago Storm being super gung ho about this setup on here which was one of the reasons I went for it despite SPC only having a 2% (later upgrade to 5%). He nailed the longer-lived/more photogenic Sycamore-Virgil tornadoes. I saw the storm I was on go HP on the next cycle and started for home, thinking it would have worked over the atmosphere. However I still consider the Kirkland EF1 my first "official" tornado since it's the first one I was actually able to stop, tripod and watch for a few minutes instead of frantically driving to get either closer to (such as the Esmond EF0 at the beginning of the video) or out of the way of it.

Congrats, will miss having another Madisonian on the board, though.

Ready for some winter outbreaks.

Pipe. Yes, they were probably overexcited, BUT violent tornadoes don't have to be wedges, AND there are numerous non-meteorological reasons the EF5 rating has become very difficult to have applied at an official level.

500mb pattern recognition via GFS/NAM suggests something may happen Wednesday although runs differ where/if significant instability may develop given ample/persistent convection. At least could be another good soak for NW parts of the sub.

Did not expect something on the magnitude of that Menasha area tornado. Reminds me a bit of a slightly less intense Plainfield. Sneaky high-CAPE HP sigtor in what was expected to be a summer wind bag. Likewise also missed a potentially much more catastrophic impact by a day (EAA had ended the day before, in Plainfield school started the day after).