Chris L

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1029 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2010 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT TO SEA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BEHIND THE STORM SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... SFC LOW MOVG NEWD FROM HAMPTON ROADS AREA THIS MRNG WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED UPR LOW SET TO MOVE ACRS RGN TDA. SNOW BANDS OF MDT INTENSITY ARE DVLPG IN DEFORMATION ZONE FROM NERN BALTIMORE SUBURBS TO NEAR KIAD...WHILE A SECOND BAND IS APPARENT FROM NEAR KBWI TO NEAR KCJR. MDT SNOW WILL CONT THRU EARLY AFTN WITH AN ADDITIONAL 4-8 INCHES XPCD UNDER THE BANDS. IN WRN SECTIONS... SNOW WILL BE GENLY LIGHTER...WITH 2-5 INCH ACCUMULATIONS XPCD. HAVE AMENDED STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS TO REFLECT MRNG OBS AND XPCD PCPN FCST. THESE TOTALS WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY INCRG SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS AS COLD AIR IS DRAWN SWD INTO FCST AREA. PREV DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... HV TWEAKED THE SNOW TOTALS BACK FURTHER. I'D HEARD ON TV LAST EVE TALK OF HITTING THE NUMBERS OF THE FAMED DC KNICKERBOCKER STORM - BUT THAT IS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. ON THE OTHER HAND BOTH DC AND BALT BROKE DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS FRI...BOTH RECORDS OVER 110 YRS OLD...SO THIS CAN STILL BE CALLED A RECORD BRKG STORM. ON RDR THERE'S A VERY DEFINITIVE BACK EDGE SHOWING UP ACROSS CENTRAL VA. HOWEVER FOR SNOW LOVERS I DON'T THINK THIS MEANS AN END TO THE SNOW. 850 AND 500 MB ANLYS BOTH SHOW DEEPENING UPR LOW OVR MID MS VALLEY WL BE TRACKING ACROSS SRN VA TDA. HVIER PCPN MAY MOVE OUT TO SEA BY MID MRNG HOWEVER APRCHG UPR LOW WL LV MUCH OF THE CWA IN LGT/MDT SNOWFALL INTO AT LEAST MID AFTN. XPCT PCPN TO CHG BACK OVER TO SNOW IN ST. MARY'S TOO. I'M GOING TO LV THE BLZRD WRNG INTACT GIVEN STRONG WINDS TDA THAT WL CREATE BLSN WHICH COULD CONT TO DIMINISH VSBY TO 1/4 MILE DURG THE DAY. HIGHS TDA FM M20S IN THE HIGHLANDS TO L30S E OF I-95.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 955 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2010 MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-VAZ042-WVZ052-053-060415-WASHINGTON MD-CARROLL MD-NORTHERN BALTIMORE MD-FREDERICK MD-HOWARD MD-MONTGOMERY MD-ANNE ARUNDEL MD-PRINCE GEORGES MD-LOUDOUN VA-JEFFERSON WV-BERKELEY WV-HARFORD MD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE MD-949 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2010 ...BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW TO AFFECT WASHINGTON...CARROLL...NORTHERN BALTIMORE...FREDERICK...HOWARD...MONTGOMERY...ANNE ARUNDEL...PRINCE GEORGES...LOUDOUN...JEFFERSON...BERKELEY...HARFORD AND SOUTHERN BALTIMORE COUNTIES... AT 949 PM EST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THE LEADING EDGE OF A HEAVY SNOW BAND ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTH OF MARTINSBURG TO MARTIN STATE AIRPORT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. LOCATIONS THAT WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW INCLUDE JACKSONVILLE...ROCKY RIDGE...LOCH RAVEN...THURMONT... PATAPSCO...GLEN ARM...CARROLLTON...WESTMINSTER...UPPERCO AND BEL AIR. HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY BELOW A QUARTER MILE.

Snow reports. ...WASHINGTON DC... AMERICAN UNIVERSITY 27.5 ANACOSTIA 1 S 21.0 WASHINGTON 1 NNE 20.0 WASHINGTON 18.2 ...MARYLAND... ELKRIDGE 2 W 38.3 FROSTBURG 36.0 FRIENDSVILLE 35.5 CROFTON 2 NNE 34.0 COLUMBIA 2 N 33.8 LAUREL 3 E 32.9 CLARKSBURG 2 NE 32.0 ECKHART MINES 32.0 HAMPTON 1 W 31.0 HANCOCK 3 ENE 30.5 MONTGOMERY VILLAGE 30.0 GERMANTOWN 2 ESE 29.5 OELLA 1 E 29.5 FREDERICK 1 ESE 29.0 DAMASCUS 2 WSW 28.0 LONACONING 28.0 PIMLICO 28.0 GWYNN OAK 1 S 26.0 COLLEGE PARK 1 NNE 25.0 BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON AIRPORT 24.8 WESTERNPORT 24.0 ROCKVILLE 1 SSW 23.5 ROYAL OAK 23.5 ANNAPOLIS 1 NW 21.5 ELKTON 21.0 WWB CAMP SPRINGS 19.5 ...VIRGINIA... HOWELLSVILLE 1 ENE 37.0 LEESBURG 34.5 BLUEMONT 3 SSW 34.0 DULLES INTERNATIONAL 32.4 ARMEL 3 WSW 31.5 WILDE ACRES 1 N 31.0 BERRYVILLE 30.5 BALLSTON 1 SW 28.0 CHANTILLY 2 NE 28.0 GAINESVILL 27.0 STEPHENS CITY 3 NW 26.0 WHITACRE 1 ESE 25.0 MARSHALL 24.0 WINCHESTER 2 S 24.0 ALEXANDRIA 1 SSW 23.2 OPAL 23.0 ASHBURN 1 NE 22.1 LOCUST GROVE 2 WSW 20.0 REAGAN NATIONAL AIRPORT 17.8 FREDERICKSBURG 14.0 ...WEST VIRGINIA... LEHEW 2 WNW 34.0 BAYARD 33.0 ROMNEY 3 E 33.0 SMITH CROSSBOADS 1 W 33.0 MIDDLEWAY 31.0 VANVILLE 1 SSW 30.0 KEYSER 2 SW 29.2 RIDGELEY 1 WSW 28.3 MARTINSBURG 2 E 27.9 BUNKER HILL 1 WNW 25.0 MOUNT STORM 18.0 HIGH VIEW 17.0 MCCOOLE 3 ESE 16.5 ROWLESBURG 14.0 WHITE SULPHUR 14.0 HEADSVILLE 13.5

I got all the AFDs for Feb 5-6. and 9th and 10th.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 932 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2010 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST THIS EVENING AND WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY OUT TO SEA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE STORM SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE IN THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... WILL GO AHEAD AND EXTEND THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO INCLUDE HARFORD AND BALTIMORE COUNTIES. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING...AND THE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN. STARTING TO NOTICE 30 TO 35 KT COME ACROSS THE CENTRAL CHESAPEAKE BAY. ALSO UPDATED GRIDS A BIT TO TOUCH UP THE SNOW TOTALS...MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN ZONES AND THE CENTRAL VA FOOTHILLS. HAVE RECEIVED SEVERAL REPORTS OF SNOWFALL TOTALS OF A FOOT OR MORE IN WESTERN MD AND THE EASTERN WV PANHANDLE. HAVE UPPED THESE TOTALS A BIT...BETWEEN 30 AND 35 INCHES. IN ADDITION...SOME SLEET CONTINUES TO MIX IN WITH SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL VA FOOTHILLS ACROSS TO LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND. HAVE TWEAKED SNOW TOTALS DOWN VERY SMALL AMOUNTS. DO BELIEVE THEY WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

I have some AFDs saved for you folks... I'll get the link for you.