Wetbulbs88

Ahhh. That's quite a difference!

Highly doubt that. I'm in DC as well. We did not get a foot.

We should temper expectations about tonight. Models are depicting rapid deterioration after crossing the Apps. This could be the headfake they're depicting. Hope I'm wrong. I've been kind of looking forward to this the whole day. Would leave a little bit of a bad taste in my mouth for this to be pulled last minute after such a nice storm.

I can't fault them for their call. Climo called for banding on the north side. Just didn't happen. Instead we got a loose piece way up north. The NAM was right on target at the final hour. I keep saying every year that the NAM is nowhere near as bad as people like to think when used correctly. Very happy with the result down here in DC. (I'm actually in Adams Morgan now; I need to change my location.)

Went out around 4:30 with the dog for about an hour or so. Was absolutely gorgeous. About 3" at that time. Wouldn't be surprised if we're above 6" now. The models had this correct 48 hours out before the last norther shift. This was a southern MD/VA special. But we hit the low end of our range, and with more light stuff to come later on. I'm not complaining.

True. And I don't discount the NAM completely like some others. HRRR on the fringe somewhat but getting into range.

I think the north-south banding approach is a pretty good bet so I like their call. I don't like this setup for us in DC. We tend to get caught in the middle because there's elevation to the north and the core moisture brunt to the south. But hopefully I'm just bracing myself against the potential for failure. Also hard to see us fall shy of warning-level criteria.

Exactly. In an earlier post I mentioned no models showing 4" above M/D. I stand corrected because the GFS is basically the only one.

It's not much different than the last run. Still not all that similar to the Euro.

Yeah this is absolutely nuts. This close to gametime, not sure I remember this much divergence.

This seems far too north and wide given recent guidance. I don't think any model shows more than 4" above M-D Line. Points for being independent-minded. Hope this pans out!

Been reading for the last four days. I'm now convinced the closest analogue here is January 2010, roughly 2-3 weeks before Snowmageddon. People forget the number of storms we had in '09-'10. We got quite a bit of snow outside the three blizzards. This analogue isn't on Ray's storm archive because it didn't really reach NJ. But it was depicted by several models to blast NC and VA, leaving DC with a few Advisory-level inches--and while the former came true, the moisture shield spread much farther north than anticipated. I was working at SUBWAY in College Park as a senior in college, and I remember getting snowed in at work. We easily got 6-8" that day. The track and setup are very similar here. I'm betting the precip shield ends up blooming norther than depicted now, with a wider max stripe.

If you need a sense of certainty, I guess. If you’re being realistic, it’s impossible to say.

Confused about the forecasting, especially with NWS in our area. The wife and I are headed to the Ravens game today and were expecting a soaker. But none of the mesos have any rain after this back edge pulls through—which it just did. NWS has “rain before 10AM” today. Fair enough, these point and click forecasts are always whatever. But then it has “rain before 10PM” tonight. The NAM suite shows absolutely nothing after this morning. The GFS shows some spotty rain but it’s well out of its range. Hoping we can just wear our Ravens gear and avoid busting out the ponchos. Fingers crossed.

This week has somewhat made up for the lull. Getting two to come back our way and then outperform considerably is a pretty good deal. Easily 5” here in AdMo. Snow is really high in some places!

Wow this band means business!

Everyone should be happy here considering what was depicted two days ago. im guessing about 3.5-4.5” here in AdMo. Light snow not doing much accumulation. But even if we don’t get under another band I’m happy as a clam with this one. The puppy is in heaven!

It's actually not backbuilding as much as feeding from the other side of the Apps. Pretty sure that radar jump isn't real. Radar always has trouble picking up the higher elevations when there's strong orthographic lift.

Also, roads completely covered here in AdMo--EVEN CT!!!

This is even better than last storm, at least here in AdMo. Way better rates and dendrites. Our Bernese pup is absolutely thrilled. She's passed out now from our last romp. Last storm was pretty cool, but this is the first true snower in years.

The HRRR is hard to trust but I’d be happy with this result.

They closed for the last event. But that may have gone WSW during.

Think this is a myth but I choose not to believe that either.

Holy crap please do.

Huh? I’m in AdMo and there’s at least 2.5” on the ground with moderate snow.