WesternFringe

About 1.5” here on grass and elevated surfaces. Some melting and compaction now. 33° and light rain currently.

Light snow with good sized flakes and 35 degrees here in Swoope, NW of Staunton in Augusta County.

6z GFS

My friends who live up there said SOME of the mountain cams showed up to 12" of snow, but that likely was snow drifts from the heavy winds. Looks like about 6" to me on that picnic table...

12z GFS and CMC. 6z Dr. No is still pretty much a no.

To each his own, but why stop in this storm thread just to say that? Why not leave us the hell alone if you aren't interested rather than pissing in our corn flakes? ...mind blowing lol A day off from work with my family and this forecast seems like a good way to wrap up winter to me!

Okay bro, whatever you need to tell yourself. Elliots Knob is 4463’, not 4500’. I was a whole 37’ off. It is almost like I rounded for simplicity sake. Also, I was a hell of a lot closer than you were when you called Wintergreen 3000’ when it is actually 3515’. That is 515’ off!!! You goofed way bigger than me on that! And I was dumb enough to believe you and regurgitated that in one of my replies. Lol Finally, the unofficial non NWS report was from 7:11, not 8:00 am as you said. As long as we are getting nit picky. You goofed on that, too. Lol

They got the memo that the GFS is the new King

YOU are calling psu mentally challenged? Jfc, why did I ever unmute you? My fault, everyone.

Data from satellites and NOAA doesn't support it at all. Most of the NWS snowfall reports come from NWS Employees, trained spotters, Park/ Forest Srvc, etc. Notice the one outlier on the map? It isn't an official NWS number. It is the number reported by the resort that has an incentive to over inflate its numbers. We are not hopeless because we use our brains and logic. Do you really think it is realistic that the only measurement of 15" of snow in Virginia came from a 3000' mountain in Nelson County? Not the 4500' mountains of northern and western Augusta County? Not the northern Shenandoah Valley? Do you think it is plausible that Wintergreen was the only measurement (outside of WV) of 15" of snow that is southwest of greater Philadelphia? Finally, I will just say this. My coworker Monica and her husband Chris live up there in a condominium and they told me they got 6", maybe 7" at the most. https://data.usatoday.com/projects/snowfall-accumulation-tracker/index.html https://www.weather.gov/lwx/pnsmap?type=snow @hstorm

Lol @hstorm

And you did call him ‘smartboy,’ which is what @hstormwas referring to

I am not arguing with you reporting the number. However, that isn’t some joker wandering around. It was a trained NWS spotter. Now, the guy who works at the ski resorts? Not so much. I am disputing the number because it is ridiculous. I didn’t know it came from the resort itself, or I would have known it was inflated. Thanks, @hstorm for comparing time stamps. I grew up in upstate New York and New England. It’s a well known fact that ski resorts inflate snowfall reports, since they have an economic interest in doing so. Again, not arguing with you, just disputing that number, which will definitely not be a part of the NWS record as a report from an NWS trained spotter.

And the central Shenandoah like Bath and Highland and Augusta counties Eta: Is that due to the 500 ull pass just to the south?

This is true- remember last Tuesday night when most had declared there would be no snow, winter was over, and that the GFS was high? ravensrule and I and like 8 other weenies were the only ones left on the thread! Lol

Yeah, I am calling BS on the Wintergreen self report. Up in the northern part of our county (Augusta) had 6” and 5.5” observations by trained spotters up around 4300 ft. I was hiking up near there yesterday and saw it. The other report near Wintergreen around 5” makes a whole lot more sense. Maybe more at the peak at the resort, but 10” more? Not buying that for a minute.

Where did you see that?

Moderate snow with parachutes and 33 degrees. NW of Staunton in Augusta County.

Because people like good trends regardless of the model?

You just posted 2 sets of maps from different models of 4 consecutive runs showing......trends.

No, no one does. That is why we are all here tracking the models run to run. If you know how this works out, you should tell us and save us all the time we are investing into tracking.

So perhaps people calling the time of death on this threat last night was premature?

I like how everyone now knows for sure what is going to happen on Sunday. Eta- And through the end of the month now, too?

He has repeatedly said 84-96 hours out, so it matters when the threat is over a given weekend. ETA- So yeah, we usually start getting a good picture by Wednesday.