WesternFringe

I agree that each model has strengths and weaknesses, which is why I think the GFS still has a role to play. I never bought the Euro’s freezing rain depiction, so I leaned on its track and precip amounts but leaned on the GFS for precip type before the mesos came into range.

The GFS nailed precipitation type in the last storm far better than the Euro for most of Central Virginia. The Euro insisted on .85” of freezing rain, but the GFS said no you will get all sleet after the changeover. The GFS was right and the Euro was wrong. We got zero freezing rain and instead got snow followed by sleet only. .85” of freezing rain vs 0” is a huge difference in outcome regarding travel, power lines, trees, etc.

This includes the glacier already on the ground in Virginia

Ensembles shouldn’t be given any weight at all under 48 hrs. We aren’t getting anything significant in Augusta County. We are still cooked. The Euro was the best model on the last storm for the track and overall development. The NAM and the GFS had the precipitation types better for our backyards. Forecasters often talk about a Euro/NAM combo being the best, although they still mention the GFS at times. The Euro kicks ass at verification scores. It doesn’t beat the GFS by a little bit. The GFS isn’t even in second place! The Euro is still the king. All we mean by that is that it is right the most and wavers the least. We know it is not literally a king and we know it is not always right.

Please don’t post this anymore

You are overly personifying a weather model dude. Relax

It has the highest verification scores at H5. That is a fact, and it is no one’s imagination.

Have you noticed the trends in the GFS and GEFS and looked at nearly ALL the other guidance? You and I are cooked on this one in Augusta County unfortunately.

Agree the GFS is on an island, but that is a snow depth map and includes the glacier on the ground in Virginia right now.

If we all knew what the models were going to do ahead of time, none of us would be here

Those are both 0z you posted.

How do I get 4” of snow off of less than .04” of qpf here in Augusta County? 100:1 ratios? Lol

Had 5-6” snow before about 4-5” of sleet! This was from this morning. 9° currently and still pouring sleet! NW of Staunton in Augusta County

I don’t think it went north, it just cut down on snow totals on the southern edge in favor of ice

I will be watching what you and @Buddy1987@wxdude64 and guys like that are observing since you are upstream of this storm from me, as you all are for most snowstorms for that matter. I appreciate you guys! May your flip over be ever delayed and good luck!

And/or ratios higher than 10:1?...

Yes and no. It is somewhat elevation dependent as those due east of me with little elevation will have more sleet compared to folks at 1500-2000' around here. At least that is nearly always how it works out.

This is just sooooo far off from the Euro, the GFS, the AIs, NWS forecast, and the NBM for my area that it should be disregarded and tossed.

I appreciate your posts and observations as your weather often becomes mine in Augusta County! Hope we trend colder and less sleet and ice as we approach game time!

Allen Iverson adds his input. ps- for real, it uses AI and analogs to give its own interpretation of the Euro physics based model.

This storm broke the Euro!

One data point isn't a trend yet

Ummm... edit: Ninja'd twice

Name checks out

Those will be the biggest runs of our lives!