Greg

I doubt we have a raging torch, revamp of the pattern, yes. Torch, NO. Look out a little further and chances of storms increase. So to write off December as a whole is premature.

Let me tell ya, a 160 nautical mile diference is really not much at all 7 days out in the world of weather.

Now that's some really good looking weather equipment right there.

The hours that you really all want to focus on as we all know is on Tuesday Dec. 11 (165-177) hours. That, at this time right now, is the closest pass this potential storm this far out gets to us. I would rather it be this close now and watching it than it saying direct hit snowstorm right now. Just a hunch for now.

I don't know DT personally but he seems to be one of the forecasters that tend to go out on a limb where he can't get back. That's what it seems to me.

God help us

Did anybody take a look at the Euro? Just asking.

Yes, just like Ray has stated also in some of his blogs on here..

Pattern recognition and model correction bias. Understanding the pros and cons of these weather models goes a long way.

As I said in my earlier post, the GFS is ok with the medium range but with this particular set up it doesn't do well with the northern stream. Again, anything outside of 120 hours should never be taken as etched in stone.

Definately lean colder right now. Not saying it will be 30-35F all the time during the day but won't be a constant 45-50F either.

GFS is a midium range model but it has trouble in these particular upper level patterns. Anything outside of let's say most stuff outside of 120 hours can change on the spin of a dime.

I never will be on board about a blockbuster storm at all with this. All that comes to mind is a potential classic Miller A storm like Feb 6-7 1967 in the KU Book. Not saying that is going to happen either of course but potential for an outgrowth is there of course if and only if in the very end things break right for a lot of people.

If, regardless of all the upgrades the GFS has had, is still a progressive model, then slow everything up by about 6 or so hours including the PV and you can see the potential.

Oh, I know that it wasn't a weak El Nino like it is now but when you actually look at both weak La Ninas and Ninos you can get similar set-ups in a slightly different pattern. Just a thought, nothing etched in stone of course.

One of the Miller A storms that I looked at last night in the KU book was the February 6-7 1967 Storm. Not saying it will happen and of course the SST's are NOT that of February, but, the baroclinisic zone is closer off shore at this time of year.

I've been watching that out of the corner of my eye per se. But, I always in the back of my mind kept thinking "James may actually get something out of that". Good luck, I hope you actually do get something.

Boy, I sure need a hobby. Something like weather. Oh, wait!

As I stated in an earlier post, December looked coldish with storms (Miller A's) to track but wether they hit us or not is a different story. Need that northern stream to dig a little deeper and a weak high to run out ahead of the SW down in the southern Mid-Atlantic. Then a further northern trajectory will occur for the SW.

I just took a look at the GFS model. I'll tell ya, some of these storms that are suppressed right now are not so suppressed being 9-11 days out. Usually for our area storms that look suppressed in the medium range tend to correct themselves further northwest as you get closer. So this isn't all that bad considering some thought we would have a giant southeast ridge giving most of us 45-55F weather for almost the rest of the month. At least we have a pattern that looks cold enough for snow and storms to track. Hang in there

Man, taking a look long range, it seems overall coldish and dry. Only some of the storms come around the Colorado area and go through the eastern Great Lakes. The others seem to just roll off the southeast Mid-Atlantic and never develop in this fast flow. What we need is an upper level disturbance from the great lakes to come off the southeastern New Jersey coast and head northeast. But this overall upper air flow doesn't seem to support that right now. Until we can get a slight change in the upper air flow, this is what we have. Of course we can keep an eye on the December 9th situation but that is still rather far out for my taste.

Try not to pay too much attention to the quantity yet as you know but focus on the track. That's when things start to fall into place from this early point.

Let's be careful of how much potential there is and just focus on the nearest potential, which seems to be on the Dec. 5 situation. Lot's of variables need to come together for this potential quick hitting Miller A storm to produce the goods. We'll see what this looks like come Sunday night weather models.

No worries my freind, I've seen situations like this where with heavier omega it turns to snow but then washes away as soon as the heavier omega dissappears. Saw 1.5", then, washed away like it never happened. Again, no worries.

Depends on what you mean by second half. I think a late December early January is actually still on the relatively early side. Of course I mean true winter starting on December 21st and not meteorology winter starting December 1st.