Greg
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Everything posted by Greg
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Our friend the FV3 is showing typical snowy love for southern New England as usual.
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If this is all true what you guys are saying then I would at least expect the Euro by 1:00 in theory to tick further southeast a bit with the rest of the models than where it was at earlier this morning.
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That is pretty slow verses the others. Don't really understand why though.
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You want the northern stream energy to help enhance the primary low but not too much. I guess it is a little like "threading the needle" per se but doable. In other words, the system coming down from the great lakes needs to help a little bit as a kicker but not too much so that it goes further out to sea at the same time enhancing it but not too much so it goes over the Cape. This solution is still doable.
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Just looked at all the models on Tidbits. I like what I'm seeing with the lows staying off shore. That's really god trend/start. However, the CMC model it has a slight warm bias, I've seen this with is track. I'm actually more afraid of a graze than a storm center riding up through the far south shore, Cape Cod area. The Euro will be interesting to say the least come 1:00 PM.
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No in-between huh?
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Interesting. A couple or so more tics southeast and you may actually have something.
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It appears that both the Euro and ICON end up in a very simliar position with the ICON at 959 MB and Euro at 974 MB over downeast Maine. Generally the track is simliar for both from Georgia/South Carolina border to New Jersey shore over Cape Cod.
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At least the Euro is starting to catch on. This is actually a good sign this far out.
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Euro looks like it might not be too bad.
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Crazy uncle is a crazy uncle solution.
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Generally from you around Hartford to the Boston area would be very happy and pretty caught up in the snow department if this sort of solution held. In fact, I believe even potentially as far south as our friends in New York City would be pleased also.
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Keep your fingers crossed and no disrobing.
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The FV3 actually is quite a storm. By the time it gets just south of the islands, the precip is almost done other than a few more hours of mostly snow to go left. In other words, it's a very good solution at this time..
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I think they may actually call it Bostonseminole. I heard that. It may be true
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Would this potentially be called a Miller A or Hybrid sort of storm? I'm guessing a Miller A.
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Would love to see the Euro give a favorable solution later tonight. If it does, then we will all be happy to track it.
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That's what I'm trying to say/get to.
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It actually is a more progressive model but can at times blow too much warm air in here when thermal profiles are actually colder.
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It is very interesting right now. You have your warmest bias models saying snow to rain as the storm tracks over Cape Cod or South Shore. The colder bias models, the GFS, NavGEM and Para give a potentially good snowstorm. We'll see where the Euro tracks tonight.
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Of course our snowy friend the FV3 has a snowstorm. Not a suprise at all.
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IF the Euro can keep this a colder solution tonight, this board will explode!
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ICON and GEM are the only models I see that brings the center over the cape, southshore. Otherwise, that's a snowstorm and a good one potentially.
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Actually, it wasn't quite over here in our neck of the woods of the greater Boston area. The snow lasted til about 10:00 PM Tuesday night with scattered flurries there after.
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Some people mistaken that massive dryslot for the "eye" and said the center of the circulation went over them when in reality the center "eye" actually stayed off shore of them.
