Greg
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Everything posted by Greg
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Actually if the Para has a cold bias then the track would be closer. The CMC always had a warm bias so the track would be further south. however, with the Euro being a whiff usually lends credence to more of a coastal graze instead of a hit. Still 5 days away.
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For the December 31/January 1st wave. 12z CMC is rain, ICON rain, Euro is a whiff for the most part, ICON is a whiff, GFS is a whiff, Para is a moderate snowstorm. What is there to say in this range?
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Euro will show which model Para or CMC seems to be on to something very soon.
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2018/19 Winter Banter and General Discussion - We winter of YORE
Greg replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
That's not even really an all northern New England but a higher elevation terrain for the most part. Depressing! -
Excellent write-up Ray.
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Nah, "If" it came together correctly, you would definately get a few inches. You wouldn't be left in the dust per se.
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Oh I see. I wish. CMC is rain. Para is a very nice NYE snow storm outside the outer Cape, Nantucket. Like I said, "I wish."
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You actually want some but not much ridging or you risk the storms down stream sliding east northeast off the coasline instead of northeast off the coastline.
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I would like to be a few days closer to that before I become vested.
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Hopefully we're all tracking a very potent Manitoba Mauler about to blow up off the southeast coast of New Jersey and begining to move towards the northeast. Something that looks like my avatar on the left.
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That's what I said.
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Whatever floats you boat. I still think it starts a little more earlier than Jan15, this I'm pretty sure of and I still call most of March Winter still.
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Not sure I agree with some calling this a back ended winter. January and February seems to be right in the middle. If it was just February to mostly March, I can see that. Otherwise, um "no".
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I like many on here have been watching that for a few days but I myself can't get fully invested yet do to how far out in the future it is. If it holds and I mean "If" then we could salvage this December. Otherwise, it's fantacy until it becomes a reality.
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Nobody said that we were punting both December and January of the meteorological winter months of Dec., Jan., and Feb. Only most of December. The change comes back in late Dec. and early Jan.
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Excellent write-up Tip. As I have said many times on this board, understanding the pros and cons (Biases) of the models and pattern recognition is where it's at.
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The dynamics with this storm really didn't materialize.
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This is a weak el nino not a strong one.
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Man, if this was mid January and these temps were in the mid to upper 20's, Look Out!
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The ECMFWF is not the only model for prediction. It's only one of the tools.
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I forgot that one, thanks Toekneeweather.
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ICON, TVCN, GFS (EPS, GEFS), CMC,.... etc.
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2018/19 Winter Banter and General Discussion - We winter of YORE
Greg replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
That's not bad at all. If you stick with the weak El Nino winters you actually get '76/'77, '77/'78, '78/'79, '02/'03, and '14/'15. Results will be much simliar. -
Oh I know, I'm very well aware of what he's looking at but still my coment stands. When you look out that far, honestly, it can't have as much merit. At least not until I or you see much more verification from other reliable model sources.
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I wouldn't be overly concerned about something 282 hours out when models can't predict about 3-4 days from now. Patience.
