Greg
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Everything posted by Greg
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I still believe that a "Weak" El Nino is going to occur based on what you have just described here. However, if a Nino "Neutral" was to occur, I would lean to something along the lines of 1993/1994 Winter. Not for the snow per se but the gradient of the pattern that may take place.
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We may get a few days of above normal out of the norm around here but 7-10 days worth, I don't think so. I never, and I only speak for myself on here, bought into the nearly 10 day mild period others were trying to get at on here. We must be careful, Pattern recognition, remember. Pattern recognition.
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Nobody should be trying to predict anything outside the December 17th storm. Where that truely tracks and sets up will determine where the rest of the storms track afterwards.
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December 18, 1995. Gave the Boston area "Heart of our viewing area" a really good snow pack for Christmas of the weak La Nina 1995/1996 season.
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I don't count "Mesoscale" features such as elevation. It has too small of an area coverage. What most are looking for/at is "Synopticscale" features. The "Mean Storm Track" That is where the money will really be that delivers the goods wide spread. Again, as I had stated earlier, more storm tracks will help decide this. Things like the baroclinicic zone set-up or where the north and south jet streams tend to interact, Miller A and Miller B storm tracks are paramount.
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I'm on your side with this. I never anticipated a "LA Nina" type pattern/gradient. I'm generally saying that in this weak "El Nino" pattern/gradient, none have realy been established yet or at least a majority of them. Again, we need more storms to track to get a nice round number on that.
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First I hear "Concord, NH North" gradient and then "South to North Carolina" gradient. This tells me right away that since mid to late November "NO" true storm track or gradient pattern has been established yet. Need to see a few more storms before that kind of talk can have merit.
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Very strange configuration to the December 16th storm. Was suppose to go west of us but now seems to go under us based on the 18z GFS.
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I think just south of Roanoke, VA in the mountains gets about 18-20" as a total when all is said, done and settled. This morning, up to about 14-16" of snow was found in those locations.
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What would Americanwx be like today if this was coming. We're waiting for it!
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As I discribed in an earlier post, I fully agree with you on this particular matter.
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I had to shovel and plow that 9" storm we got in northeastern, MA, just outside of Boston. Logan International Airport (Human Created Lilly Pad/Barge On The Water Since 1936) is a entire other story. The 2.7-3.0" on the water should have been Novembers total, not the 0.1" Logan recorded after the rain.
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Our favorite kind if it does it right.
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I agree totally. The pattern is not Nov/Dec 1994 or 2006. Sure you can get some cutters even in a good pattern but I do recognize this pattern and it has been seen before in a good way, which we all know. We all need to be a little patient that's all.
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If Raindancewx saw November and December so far, he would realize that the 94/95 and 06/07 winter were actually a different and warmer pattern before.
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Don't worry, it's not a 1994/1995 winter season. Doesn't fit the analog profile for this winter season/year. In fact this season is following a decent amount of the weak El Nino Modoki analogs so far. Pattern going as predicted so far.
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I think that cutter or very unusual trajectory of that storm will be the one that reshuffles the pattern back to more favorable conditions for snow lovers and traditional winter enthusiast.
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I'm not totally sold on that pattern yet. There are several weak El Nino winters that this is actually following, not just 2002/2003. An average of them all may actually end up being more appropriate
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By the way folks, keep a keen eye on the very sneaky (Miller-B) Alberta Clipper for the December 13th time frame.
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Nah, not really. This thing 10 days out could either go further inland and drench DC to Bangor Maine or better yet go further east and actually give the Baltimore to Boston to Portland corridor area a good one.
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Looks like Boone, NC down there is going to get about 8-16" according to the National Weather Service. Generally 8-12" for the valley floor and 12-16" for the highest terrain as it stands now.
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Don't worry guys, it's all good. The pattern believe it or not is actually panning out just like a weak El Nino does. We will get our snow, trust me. It seems too many of us are used to a weak La Nina pattern where December into early January produces snow. Patience is virtue.
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Zombie storm!
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2018/19 Winter Banter and General Discussion - We winter of YORE
Greg replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
I knew in the back of my mind you might get something out of it James! -
Give me data or give me death.
