Geoboy645

https://www.weather.gov/mkx/2021SpringFloodOutlook MKX just came out with their outlook for their CWA. Don't think I have seen them have a general above-average risk for flooding over pretty much the entire CWA in a while. Intresting to note that we are back in the 80% range for Soil moisture in some areas. Again.

https://www.weather.gov/ncrfc/LMI_ROF_NFP_SpringHydroOutlook. The NCRFC just came out with their first spring flooding outlook. They are pretty much thinking the same thing when it comes to what areas are likely to flood this spring. They are definitely a little more conservative with their wording though. Which makes sense I guess considering that we are still in mid-february.What was especially interesting was the note that the SWE for the Illinois/Wisconsin snowpack is actually in the top 10 highest ever for that area. Basically if your south of the latitude of the Iowa/Minnesota state line your going to have a higher flood potential than north of it.

Oh god the conspiracy nuts are back.

Yeah I know. I was thinking more of the central to southern stretches of the river downstream of say Cedar Falls.

I figured it was time to start this thread as we come up on the first spring flooding outlooks of the year. As of right now Spring Flooding could be a major concern across most of the sub. With an above-average snowpack with high water equivalency and deep frost depth this year could be an above average year for flooding. A quick melt by either a sharp warmup or a rainy cutter could potentially lead to March 2019 or April 1965 style flooding quite easily. Interesting thing to note that most analog years to this one pattern wise featured major flooding in the Midwest during Spring. 1965,2008, and 2011 are the most notable ones. If there is a plus it's that soil conditions aren't nearly as wet as last year and snowpack is average to below-average across the headwaters of the northern major rivers. River Basins I would particularly pay attention to this year are the Illinois, Rock, Fox (Illinois), Fox (Wisconsin), Wisconsin, Des Plaines, Wabash, Southern Cedar, Iowa and Des Moines, and Mississippi. When it comes to the Great Lakes I wouldn't be shocked if Lake Michigan-Huron starts breaking lake level records again after this spring. Especially if we get more snow to the east in Michigan. Overall this year is looking like a potentially bad one for the Midwest. TLDR: Bad flooding year possible for the Midwest.

Already our down to -3 at GRB. -12 is our point forecast tonight and we might get to an amazing temperature of 1 tomorrow for a high. We are supposed to have wind chills tonight down to -32. Tomorrow seems like a nice day to stay inside.

Now this is a sight you don't see everyday. 90% of Wisconsin has at least 6 inches of snow on the ground. Just wow. Ofc im in the one of the few areas with barely 6" on the ground cause why wouldnt I be? But man this just such an insane map.

There are new orleans snow weenies? Now that's just being ridiculous. Oh also Houston and New Orleans getting ice would be a very bad day there. Also when's the last time there was ZR modeled in any part of Florida ever?

Oh god why would you bring that horror on to here? it's like every weenie all rolled up into one. It's just so so so bad.

Wow it is just cranking snow outside. Between 2 and now we have probably got at least 2" if not more. And it just keeps coming down. This is honestly some of the heaviest snowfall rates I ahve seen in daylight in quite a while. Too bad this is a shorter snow cause we could get some serious accumulations if this lasted for about 8 hours.

GRB just released WSW's for their entire CWA. Around here by Green Bay they are calling for 5-9" which seems pretty reasonable IMO. The wind probably won't be AS big of an issue here as further south but it will still be pretty bad. Fortuantley where I am at least is relatively protected being at the bottom of the Fox valley and all that. Still going to suck walking to classes though.

Gahh why does this have to happen now when I am not down there. We could be seriously reach 2nd or 3rd deepest snowpack on record in Madison. We won't break the record because 36" is insane, but over 2 feet is in serious play here. Talk about a turnaround

tHEre iS nO bLoCKiNg

I am definitely liking where I am sitting for this one. Some models have me getting close to a foot. That would be so nice up here. Man to have most of the state of Wisconsin have over 10" of snow OTG right before a massive cold outbreak would be awesome.

It's been a function of the storm track more than anything. Green Bay has just been too far north for most of the year for storms.

Yeah when it comes to snow depth there is a very large difference between Madison and Green Bay. At home I have over a foot of snow OTG. Here at college it's more like 4". Areas up to my north like Marinette have even less. This next storm could really add to our pack here though at least according to some models. I could be at 8-9" before the cold wave and home could have at least 16".

On the other hand, in February it is a bit easier to break records because it doens't usually have these mega cold outbreaks

One thing about this system, if it does cut like it's modeled we could be in for a really bad time for flooding. 40's/50's with rain on top of a snowpack of potentially 12-18" over a large area sounds like a good way to get major flooding. Add in the frozen ground and ice on the lakes and yeah it's not looking good. To make matters worse, after this storm we could get really really cold. Like 2019 cold wave cold. I could easily see a situation where we have march 2019 style flooding with massive ice jams and then everything just refreezes. Hopefully this doesn't happen.

Well this storm overperformed here. I was originally forecasted to have 2-4" but I ended up with about 7" with quite a bit of drifting and blowing. A fluffier snow too which was nice fo shoveling. This 7" means that our snowmobile trails will be able to open which will be nice. I say I probably have 9-10" OTG now. This pack should last at least to the end of the week.

What about Bamwx. They seem like a reputable site.

That cutoff on the para would be so painful. You guys get 9 while I get like 3. That would suck if that actually happened.

Phasing? This event doesn't involve phasing.

Honestly if I were you guys in chicago I'd be quite happy rn. The models are quite obviously underdoing QPF and with most of them still having the band basically over the city I wouldn't be surprised if you guys eke out some surprising amounts as things stand right now.

Oh no wonder why it's still snowing. Such a weird phenomenon when this happens. I wonder how much of an effect if any the 80 degree Lake Columbia right next to it has on this.