Geoboy645

MKX mentioned a potential upgrade to Blizzard warnings for the northern CWA if some of the higher end winds come to fruition in their afternoon AFD. Even without that, wind gusts up to 60 mentioned which iirc would be our strongest synoptic wind event since 12/15/21. So that's fun I guess.

Around here the accumulations don't seem like they are going to be that significant, 2-4" or so. However, the wind and flash freeze are going to make things bad for travel tomorrow night and Monday morning. Actually it's probably a good thing we don't really have a preexisting pack for this storm or else this would be a slam-dunk ground blizzard for most of the region. Further N, easily the most severe winter conditions since 1/12/24, if not the March 23 set of blizzards. Wouldn't be surprised if the Blizzard Warning gets extended S into WI from the UP and the LE belts.

This winter reminds me a lot of 22-23 just shifted 2 weeks earlier. Early cold and snowy period followed by a long period of storminess on the W Coast and warmth here in January. Hopefully this means we get a 22-23 like rally in February and it gets done by March 15th this time around. Madison and Green Bay recorded around 50 inches of snow in the Feb 15th to April 1st rally in 22-23. Something like that but a bit more spread the wealth and earlier would be nice to say the least.

If this incoming ridge pattern was in June or July, it would be a ridge rider pattern with MCS's every night. Good thing it's *checks notes* the week of Christmas.

For records sake, the anomaly at Madison the first half of the month was -12.6 (!). We will see what it actually ends up being by the end of the month.

Correct. In fact, from what I can tell this might be the first double digit storm before January 1st since the second storm of the December 2016 sequence, if not 12/20/12. Which is insane to say the least.

Definitely looks like the potential for a significant hit for the Madison metro is steadily increasing over the last day or so. Could get very interesting here, especially because we are potentially less than three days out from the snow starting to fall on Thanksgiving weekend, with all that entails for travel. Could see headlines and messaging start in earnest tomorrow because of this factor.

Yeah this could be a sneakily impactful wind event given it's the day before Thanksgiving and all. Could affect both air and road travel.

Hard to believe at this time last week we were talking about feet of snow falling in areas that are now over 70 degrees. Got to love November in the Midwest.

With the issuing of WSW's for Chicago and the N IN lake effect belts, I figured that this event has become thread-worthy. The main storm system isn't that notable, with the warm ground leading to at most an inch or two of accumulation for some higher terrain areas away from the lake. However, after the main system passes through we could have a significant lake effect event for so early in the year, especially on Sunday night into Monday. LOT and IWX have highlighted for the potential of at least several inches of snow wherever a main band sets up for any length of time. Combined with wind and the fact that leaves are still on the trees from the previously very warm autumn, this could be a potentially significant early-season event. Especially considering the possibility that one of the bands may set up into downtown Chicago and points south of the city, and the fact that this really has only become a thing within the last 24 hours.

Fortunately there are several indications that we are about to end up in a much more active pattern potentially starting next week. And with a still well-above average Gulf, could get interesting here for storms. The fact that, unless something stupid happens, we are going to have a Gulf like that with no TCs to cool it down before storm season kicks up is going to make things interesting for moisture availability the next couple months imo.

Yeah no complaints about the forecast for the next week. Consistent upper 60s and sunny, the perfect October combo. Much better than the June in October weather of last week. And with a hint of a more active storm pattern incoming for the second half of the month for those who are going to go "but it's so boring!"

I guess we are doing June in October again. This could be forecast for the week of Father's Day or the 4th. Not so much for October 1st. At least the days are nice though. Just to think, we have the same daylight as ~March 10th rn, where we can have a foot of snow on the ground and 20 degree highs.

Drought monitor is starting to look pretty rough to the S and E of the forum. Widespread D1 with pockets of D2 and even an area of D3 (!) in OH and S IL.

The next week+ looks like almost an exact repeat of last September's consecutive 80s streak, with maybe just slightly less intensity. Will be interesting to see how many consecutive 80s we have, which after today's date is more and more impressive the later we get into the month. And how much we recover the anomalies for the month. We bottomed out around -9 a couple days ago, so we'll see if we get close to or above average for anomalies after this stretch.