Cobalt
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Posts posted by Cobalt
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Low of 1F, up to 11 degrees now.
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Euro is a snower for the 16th-17th
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6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:
November finished with a mean temperature of 46.7° (1.2° below normal) in New York City. November 2023 was the coldest such month in November since 2021.
Tomorrow will be another mild day. Showers could affect the region late in the day or on Saturday.
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +2.1°C for the week centered around November 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.80°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the early winter.
Should the ENSO Region 1+2 and 3.4 anomalies remain at or above +1.00°C in December, which is likely, and should the PDO remain negative, there is a single past case (1950-2022) with similar ENSO/PDO conditions: December 1972.
The SOI was +6.30 today.
The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.350 today. Only four prior November cases (1950-2022) saw the AO fall to -3.000 or below during the last week of November: 1985, 2002, 2010, and 2018.
On November 28 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.457 (RMM). The November 27-adjusted amplitude was 0.555 (RMM).
Looks like @qg_omegawas only a bit off.
On 11/9/2023 at 6:48 AM, qg_omega said:Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.8° (0.2° below normal).
Time will tell but I have a hard time seeing how November doesn’t finish at least 1 degree above normal if not more
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39 minutes ago, qg_omega said:
How're you feeling about this prediction so far?
On 11/9/2023 at 6:48 AM, qg_omega said:Time will tell but I have a hard time seeing how November doesn’t finish at least 1 degree above normal if not more
Looks like Central Park is running 2.0F below normal through the 15th. According to the 0z EPS it looks like they'll be running around normal for the next 7 days and then 3-5F below normal for the following 7 days to close out the month.
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11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:
Reread what I said for temps by the end of the month.
I have, and from this quote
2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:It's a notable cold snap for them and kind of goes to the point that while the NE was warm this month, the south was cooler relative to normal.
I read this quote and gathered that you were saying the South has been cooler than their given normal for the month of October, not relative to New England or any other thing. I responded saying that hasn't been the case, and if that response had no application here then I'd like to hear what normal you were referring too. Because yeah in reference to NNE every part of the US has been substantially cooler this month, but if that's what you were trying to focus on then I think this whole discussion of "relative terms" was confusing to follow from the onset. I'd like to hear which normal you were focusing on.
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35 minutes ago, Pixee said:
THAT'S RIGHT! Besides we're supposed to be "Snowball Earth" right now according to 60s scientists. Why isn't earth a block of ice?
Because that idea never had consensus in the 60s and 70s. It's a common fallacy, published research from back then predicted the modern day warming rather accurately, surprisingly so for being half a century ago.
In any case the thought process of "science was wrong back then so it shouldn't be taken with any credence now" is one made in bad faith. Scientific inquiry is not infallible, but the best working theories or lines of research cannot be disregarded simply because some guy was wrong 500 years ago. Even your 60s argument has no weight when comparing to the current working theory of current global temperature rise. The 60s idea never had any great backing or predictive capabilities. The best understood theory of current global temp rise has both of those things.
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44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:
It's like Bizarro-World in here.
As long as it's not a world where the defined blue area on that map is perceived to take up more area than the red, then all is well.
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53 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:
based on their average temps.
Here's a revised edit of the above WxBell map, with AN anomalies in the South boxed in red, and BN anomalies boxed in blue.
Which takes up more area in the Southern states, the AN anomalies, or the BN anomalies?
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12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:
Yes as a whole for the month the south will be a lot cooler, especially the SE.
Cooler than the Northeast or the 30yr average? That area being cooler relative to NE's record warmth is a no brainer, but the map above indicates that the South as a whole will finish above the 1991-2020 average. The small nugget of BN temps in the Southeast doesn't offset the anomalies found to the West.
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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:
It's a notable cold snap for them and kind of goes to the point that while the NE was warm this month, the south was cooler relative to normal.
On the whole the South has skewed AN so far this month. Maybe the next 36 hours will tip the scales a bit to the side of BN temps, but not by much.
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3 hours ago, MaineJayhawk said:
I'm looking forward to @TheClimateChanger's report on this TX cold snap
That cold snap probably won't do much to change the fact that Texas (along with all but one Gulf Coast state) are on pace to see their warmest year in 129 years of record keeping. The shifting of goalposts is interesting, we're so used to record warmth that one cold snap is seen as an inexplicable event that somehow offsets all of the other positive anomalies.
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8 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:
well, you guys are a little crazy on this forum with this 4 days of 70s. Never mind that it’s freezing out right now.
I think this forum becomes an echo chamber sometimes were narratives get amplified to extremes
Looks like for some areas in Vermont, they are not freezing, at a point in the season where it is becoming exceedingly uncommon for such an event to not have occurred at least once already.
15 minutes ago, powderfreak said:The first sub-32F SFC prog at the MVL ASOS from the latest GFS run is October 31st.
That is absolutely insane.
I don’t think people understand how rare that is based on standard deviations from the period or record.
If we even entertain November 1 as a first freeze at a NNE radiational site, wow. Been a mild fall. This isn’t a troll post, just recognizing what is actually happening.
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Whenever my oceanography professor mentions something related to cold/snow in our area, he prefaces it by saying "if we ever have a winter again". I feel like he'd be a perfect fit in this subforum.
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51 minutes ago, pasnownut said:
Who here questions the warming?
None of my response was related to current warming being questioned. People like Chesco can mold the data like it's play-doh to negate the warming, but that's a different discussion for a different day. It was you equating modern day "warming hype" to that of the supposed 1970s "cooling hype". As you pointed out (after my message), you remembered seeing information suggesting "the earth is gonna freeze", and used it to suggest global climate prediction and discussion is heavily faulty, or at least was back in the time of those reports. I chimed in to say that it was never the consensus, even back then. The idea that it was somehow a consensus viewpoint back in the 1970s is being weaponized by people who question the warming to this day. If you agree with your original idea, that it's nonsense to question modern day warming, you can then agree on that connection (70s cooling idea to modern warming being faulty) being a bad faith argument. Therefore, I think it's nonsense to equate a complete non-consensus back then to anything connected to the climate discussion today. Plain and simple.
A quick edit after the fact, I see the discussion has moved on, and I don't mean to make this discussion drag on longer than it needs to. This response was simply for closure.
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16 minutes ago, pasnownut said:
Just like they whole warming thing might be a bit media hyped??
Hmmm
This is a silly comparison to make. Publications concerning the idea of "global cooling" were a fraction compared to the research that suggested warming, even in the 70s. The only "hype" about publications on global cooling comes from deniers who benefit from amplifying the idea of doubt or uncertainty.
Even ExxonMobil produced research back in the 70s suggesting the Earth was warming, and their predictive skill on the matter was surprisingly accurate. Much better than that of deniers that have been suggesting for decades that the warming would halt.
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6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:
Sorry to bother, but it doesn't look like Twitter (or X I guess is what it's called now) links embed to AmWx anymore, so they're not viewable. Can you summarize the tweets you're sharing? In your own words preferably.
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5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:
Meteorological fall commenced with unseasonably chilly readings across the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions. Low temperatures included:
Albany: 512°
Binghamton: 49°
Boston: 57°
Bridgeport: 57°
Danbury: 49°
Hartford: 51°
Islip: 58°
New Haven: 55°
New York City: 61°
Newark: 60°
Philadelphia: 62°
Poughkeepsie: 47°
Providence: 54°
Westhampton: 57°
White Plains: 53°The Labor Day weekend will start cool but turn noticeably warmer on Sunday. Labor Day will be fair and hot with temperatures reaching the upper 80s and even lower 90s.
The ECMWF weeklies suggest that the September 4-18 period could see temperatures average above to much above normal across the region. Parts of the region could see high temperatures peak at or above 90° on one or more days. September has increasingly become an extension of summer in parts of the Northeast. Since 2000, almost half of all years (48%) have had a monthly mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Prior to 2000, just 20% of Septembers had mean temperatures of 70° or above.
The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +3.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.5°C for the week centered around August 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +3.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.23°C. El Niño conditions will likely continue to strengthen into the fall with the current East-based event transitioning to a basinwide El Niño for the upcoming winter.
The SOI was -22.10 today.
The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.311 today.
Ridiculous UHI effect up in Albany
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1 minute ago, CAPE said:
That run looks a little different on TT. The anomalies on the WB maps sure look super impressive(and exaggerated) with all those pretty colors lol. Either way, the general idea at h5 is there- about all that can be gleaned from these models at this juncture.
That's because JB posted the control run, the operational CFSv2 currently only runs through November.
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52 minutes ago, roardog said:
Look, the only person around here that knows for sure what will happen this winter is snowman19. Just follow his lead and you’re sure to win. It looks like you already are. lol
he has correctly predicted 38 of the last 20 warm winters after all.
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1/26/11 was the the first one I can remember "tracking", being glued to TWC coverage, cycling back from the TV to the window, waiting for a changeover. It must've happened in an instant, going from pouring rain to a near whiteout, by far the highest impact for a single-digit snowfall I have ever seen. 8 inches of heavy wet snow that caused a 3 day power outage (nearly as long as Feb 2010's snow blitz), and a prolonged snowpack after. Those high impact rain to snow events (1/3/22 is in the same realm as that one) have always been a favorite of mine. There's just something about a dreary environment transforming into a powder keg at a moment's notice.
Most memorable stretch of winter has to be Feb-March 2015. Nearly every flavor of snow event, and some historic cold that we might never see again.
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This recent 2 month stretch marks the first time DCA has had consecutive BN months since April/May 2020. Coldest 5/1 -> 6/30 (69.3F) since 2005 (68.7F). Nowhere near 2003's average for that timeframe of 66.4F, which stands as the coldest May/June period in DCA's history and coldest at any official DC site since 1927.
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4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:
If I remember correctly, siberia had record cold through most of the winter. Cold air is a finite source, especially now, and it seems most of it just went to the other side. And maybe a smaller lobe or two dumped into the west. Could be just one of those years.
Maybe next time we get the cold air dumped on our side.
I remember reading that some areas in Siberia were the coldest since 2002. Maybe next year we'll get our 2003?
In any case I'll remain hesitant about an El Nino being the remedy we need. The 06-07 and 94-95 style Ninos still lurk, but it's definitely a step up for our chances.
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Jan/Early Feb Medium/Long Range Discussion Part 3
in Mid Atlantic
Posted
probably connected.. fridge doing its magic