Cobalt

And the cycle repeats itself.. pretty nice signal though. Textbook 50/50 showing on on the panels @CAPE showed too. 

Battle of the ridges

The 4th instance of a massive EPO tank so far this cold season. 1st was mid November, 2nd was mid December, 3rd was late January, and the 4th is now taking place in early March, so a return period of 30-45 days or so. Interestingly, these events have had less of a correlation w/ persistent cold in the East as the winter has gone on. Highlights the importance of the PNA, these events don't matter all too much if the west coast trough wants to dig into Baja. 

At the very least, the GFS has trended to improving the block over Greenland and weakening the WAR during the past 3 runs. Baby steps.

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Sold. Close the curtains on winter after that.

Upper levels are pretty solid on this panel, widespread -5C at 850 and -3C at 925. Surface is mid 30s though, but as depicted that's a paste bomb no doubt.

that darn UHI effect..

Weeklies say happy spring..

7 minutes ago, Wxdood said:

I don’t know who you get your news from, but NOAA has authorized-take notices for every wind company out there building off the coast from Maine to Florida. It’s a fact that they themselves are doing sonic blasting loud enough to injure dolphins and whales. 
 

That same NOAA found no conclusive evidence on the idea that offshore wind developments have contributed to excess whale deaths.

9 minutes ago, Wxdood said:

Right, I’m supposed to roll over and trust the government, ipcc, etc that there is no other reason for warming other than it being from humans.  

No other coherent theory has been put forth to explain ongoing warming better than explaining the link between human-caused emissions and the rapid changes in our global climate. Not for a lack of trying either, as the trillion dollar fossil fuel industry has done their own research and has come across the same conclusion. In fact, they've been quite accurate at predicting the rise in global temperatures as a product of human-caused fossil fuel emissions.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/us-world/article/Study-Exxon-Mobil-accurately-predicted-warming-17714068.php?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=socialflow

Can you explain to me how despite there being trillions in incentive to find evidence that disproves AGW, none of the major fossil fuel firms have ever presented such evidence? 

16 minutes ago, Wxdood said:

however like you probably know, the battery in nyc was supposed to be underwater in 2012, and the arctic was supposed to be ice free in 2008. 
 

Can you link to the papers that predicted these things? I could not find the papers that would have discussed the predictions you mentioned. 

48 minutes ago, Wxdood said:

“Some”? I believe every single doomsday prediction has failed miserably. Then they push the goalposts back again. 
 

al we need to do is put a million windmills out in the ocean and kill the last whale out there so we can be “green” and *magically* go back QUOTE “normal” and boom! The ice is back!

 

pathetic. 

Yet another fallacy perpetrated by the AGW denier group. Offshore windmills are not causing excess whale deaths, there is no evidence for it.

As for the "every single doomsday prediction", which such predictions are you referring to? 

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

So Euro destroys (relative to this year)  us between 222-240.  Only 9 days away!  8-12 area wide. Even CAPE gets in on it with slightly less

The one positive that's persistently showing up from like the 24th onwards is that monster 50/50 low that looks to have some staying power w/lower heights in that region. That area has had persistently AN heights for months now, so maybe signs of a change?

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

No

Yes

No

No

No

The Alberta clipper thing is very puzzling. The last one, a real one, that I remember was in Jan 2015

There were a few in the 17-18 winter, and I believe one (or two) in late Jan/Early Feb 2019. Still very rare. 

1 hour ago, dseagull said:

Again, 50 years ago.... "global cooling,"  "the next ice age..." 

This is a common myth, during the 1970s the amount papers discussing global warming far exceeded those that mentioned the potential of the Earth cooling.

This is also around the same time when Exxon's own scientists produced research predicting the future of AGW, which ended up being remarkably accurate.

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2023/01/harvard-led-analysis-finds-exxonmobil-internal-research-accurately-predicted-climate-change/#:~:text=Specifically%2C Exxon projected that fossil,has been proven largely accurate.

9 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Is it time to talk about sun angle yet?

Apparently so

Every dud winter has some sort of gut punch suppressed snow bomb.. 

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

i know but the surface temp shouldnt be 32-33 in this type of storm. I would of thought colder aloft and warmer on the surface ha

I'll have to dig up the thread but this setup also resembles storm in very late January 2017 (Jan 21st?) that relied almost exclusively on the ULL pass for heavy wet snow.. that one only really ever delivered for favored areas, and in very meager amounts at that.

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

the fact that solution is even possible is depressing

This isn't any better either

22 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

i like this panel very much

As the GFS depicts it, this setup seems akin to a warmer Jan 2011.. WAA that flips to rain that becomes heavy as the ULL gets going, then dumping snow as the ULL passes (all at 32-34F). The main difference is that the Jan 2011 setup had some solid west coast ridging and blocking before the storm, and ofc it's a synoptic anomaly. 

12z UKIE

32 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Yep this makes a lot of sense....

It is quite the weather extreme, considering that Mt. Washington reached this mark shortly after scoring the 2nd warmest first two months of winter on record. 

Considering how this upcoming month is slated to be much AN following the extreme (but brief) 2 day cold snap, it is plausible that the site achieves both its warmest winter and coldest wind chill temperature in the exact same season. I'm not sure what your definition of "extreme" is, but that doesn't seem like something that happens every year. 

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Winter! Crazy right?

Easy to forget that DCA had a stretch of something close to 1,000 days without getting below 22F.. we've bottomed out below that mark 4 times so far this winter, and it looks like we're about to do it a 5th time.. yay?

14 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

It is all part of the balancing that our planet does....it will ebb and wane - increase and decrease just like it always has and always will.

So you're saying after the recent 50 year increase in global heat ocean content, we will now see a decrease? 

46 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

Not really that difficult - it's the simple cyclical nature of our climate....we warm - we cool - we warm - we cool... rinse and repeat. The actual data is clear climate change is real and the cycles are constant it both warms and cools.

So do you believe the steady trend of an increase in global heat content in the oceans (as depicted in the graph above), will reverse its trend and decrease, or will this be a localized cooling trend while average of the planet's surface continues to warm?

18 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

I do indeed believe we are heading back to a few cooler decades in a row likely starting this decade....it just makes cyclical sense. A warm month of January and even a February will do nothing to disprove my cooling cycle prediction....

Well I think that's the point. One warm or cold month gives little if any context for prevailing trends or "cycles", so using December to confirm the start of a long term cooling trend is a bit haphazard. 

And you say the following decades will be cooler (presumably cooler than this last decade). What do you anticipate will change that will cause that cooling? As posted above, the heat content in the oceans is steadily increasing, do you believe that trend will reverse in the coming years, and if so, why?

7 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

So what climate disasters can we attribute so far to this AGW during the last 50+ years of our current warming cycle??

We are well on our way to a blue ocean event, as annual arctic sea ice steadily trends downwards.

The AMOC is the weakest it's been in the last 1,000 years

On the scale of economic damage due to climate change, insured losses due to extreme weather are on the rise. I believe this isn't adjusted for inflation, but even factoring that in shows a steady increase. Note the decoupling between man-made disasters and weather/natural catastrophes.

On that note, a 2019 survey found that 72% of insurance firms believed that climate change would impact their business. Given how shortsighted the market is for understanding climate change risks, that is a telling statistic. 

For a more localized event, the 2021 PNW heatwave is said to have had a return period of about 1 in 1,000 years in today's climate, but it was reported that the event was made ~150x more common given human-induced climate change, and that in a world that is 2C above pre-industrial levels (0.8C more warming), that return period could be closer to 5-10 years.

https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/NW-US-extreme-heat-2021-scientific-report-WWA.pdf

I understand that you used the word "attribute" specifically to question whether climate change has had a direct role in any given event, but you should know that's not how our climate system works. Instead, I posted the above examples to show how ~1-1.2C of AGW has nudged different indicators of our planet's climate in specific and predictable directions. Adding more energy to a system will do that. All 4 of the examples I've provided have literature behind them that suggests that climate change has contributed to the shifts that we've seen. Again, not direct attribution, but substantial contribution. A shifting of baselines you could say.

1 hour ago, ChescoWx said:

Sorry Charlie my forecast was actually indeed spot on as we did finish with our 3rd below normal December in the last 12 years as I predicted! 

I think they were poking fun at how you suggested that December was the start of a "cooling cycle of local climate", followed by a substantially AN month for your region and much of North America. 

16 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The earth is 4.5 billion years old. Just for fun, post the same map for 1/100 of that time frame. 

which is alarming when considering how much the Earth has warmed in just the last .0000022% of its lifespan. A blip on any natural timescales. 

16 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

We have had a rotten run of luck. But in the context of snow, luck matters. Last Jan and Feb here were both much colder than normal if I remember correctly, which is iffy. But did we get a lot of snow? Yes this year has been tough and warm, but all of the prior 6 haven’t been wall to wall warm. We are just as likely to go in a 6 year great period.

It's been pretty overwhelmingly warm on the whole, with colder months being more of a rarity. Not just for the US, but for the entire northern hemisphere as a. Keep in mind how this is also using the 1991-2020 average. Using any previous baseline would cause this period to stand out even more.

Our last horrific dud stretch of winters was much more localized with its warmth.