Cobalt

2 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

Almost coast to coast cold so far this year. The entire country except spots in Maine, Florida and The Southwest running with below normal temperatures since January 1st. Is this the start of our next cyclical climate change cycle of a turn to colder?

3F below normal compared to 1991-2020 averages, the warmest 30 year set. In 2024, 2023, and 2020, the nation blew past 3F above normal during the exact same stretch like nothing. Where were you posting the national temp anomaly maps then? 

Light snow, 15F

We're sick and twisted individuals

21 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Didn't that torch in February, though?

It torched in December. Pretty sure if not for 2015, Dec 2021 would be the warmest at the 3 airports. That made a BN DJF average impossible, but January-April were pretty chilly as far as La Ninas go. 

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

so, snow building from the SSW so far...waiting for more panels...can't be definitive yet

damn this thing must be a powerhouse if it's snowing all the way from 50mb

4 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I'm not worried.  North Carolina isn't going to get a 2ft snowstorm in late February. 

Feb 26-27 2004 says hi

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

You pretty much say this... Every. Single. Winter.

My personal favorite - can you guess which winter this post followed?

let me give a hint, it starts with an 09 and ends with a -10

Worth bringing up because this isn't all too far fetched at this point. Listed are all the 5"+ snowfalls at DCA during 21st century La Niñas. The last La Niña to feature 2+ snows above 5 inches was 95-96 (3 instances), so the slight chance of DCA not DCAing today would have this winter be the first in nearly 30 years to join that club. 

6 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Can h57 of the 18z NAM deliver? Probably the best chance at making up for lost snow tomorrow/weds AM. 

Also, @stormtracker or anyone else, should my file max size be 261kb? Recently, I haven't been able to attach anything...

Your file size is limited by other files you've uploaded. On desktop click on your name in the top right, then click "my attachments" (should work on mobile too). Delete the files taking up the most space but definitely save them to your device beforehand. A bunch of lost media over the years all because of an understandable file limit. 

5 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

The cult religion of Climate Change Alarmism is quickly being removed and modified on FEMA’s website. The page on “Climate Resilience” has been renamed “Future Conditions” The Biden era alarmist website read “Climate Change is the defining crisis of our time. From extreme heat, drought and wildfires to more severe coastal storms, sea level rise and inland flooding, the consequences of climate change are all around us”
The new scrubbed and corrected website now more accurately describes the true current state. “Disaster incidents are rising due to increased human vulnerability, exposure and a changing climate. From extreme heat, drought and wildfires to more severe coastal storms, sea level rise and inland flooding, the consequences are all around us. These challenges are further compounded by increased construction and population movement to vulnerable areas.”
It’s just so great to see the old junk science and climate alarmist garbage on our government websites being rightfully tossed in the trash! Great start with the new Administration!! Can’t wait to see what’s next!!

 

checks out.

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

I just don’t get how we go from 10- 0

La Ninas of years past have produced eerily similar fails. Folks might remember that one mid Feb 2021 threat (also February 12th I think?) that had two waves to it. Guidance converged on both waves producing a flush hit from 100+hrs out and I think even the Euro within hour 70 had a widespread 6-12". However, the same 1st wave weak second wave too strong thing happened. It is excessively difficult to put stock in these multi-wave solutions when there is so much give and take to how the guidance places emphasis on either phase of the thing.

6 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Legend stuff honestly, had to drive 300 miles north to experience winter past weekend, depressing coming back here but is what it is

Just gotta wait a few weeks my friend. Mid February onwards looks cold and snowy! 

4 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

People need to stop saying things with certainty so far out. It’s cringey. 

Should bring pause to whenever a qg_omega or snowman type person comes out of the gate predicting warmth. Are they making a knowledge-based call in accordance to guidance, analogs, etc, or are they betting on persistence giving them an easy win? It's not rocket science to bet on AN each year, they'll be right 8/10 times nowadays. It's the 2/10 where their true character and intentions come to light. 

On 11/5/2024 at 8:56 AM, qg_omega said:

one of the easiest winter forecasts in a long time, look at last year and the year before and extrapolate forward.

On 11/5/2024 at 8:55 AM, qg_omega said:

Nothing has changed, maritime heatwave if anything is strongest its ever been.  Warm and snow less winter is on its way +4 to +8.

On 11/2/2024 at 4:31 PM, qg_omega said:

+4 to +8, 2027 may be ok

On 11/2/2024 at 8:04 AM, qg_omega said:

great job, think your dec - mar average is too low given all the indices you list predicted above.  Will be hard to not be 4+ given the above.

On 10/5/2024 at 1:39 PM, qg_omega said:

 

Alaska below normal we are going to be 4 to 6 above normal

On 9/28/2024 at 12:27 PM, qg_omega said:

4-5-6 all winter

On 9/22/2024 at 1:16 PM, qg_omega said:

Mjo will be lopping 456 all winter, nothing else really matters

On 8/18/2024 at 12:31 PM, qg_omega said:

+4 to +8 DJF early call

On 8/16/2024 at 9:43 PM, qg_omega said:

Warmest winter ever looks increasingly likely 

On 7/19/2024 at 3:10 PM, qg_omega said:

Looks like another record warm and snowless winter incoming.  

Wonder whatever happened to this guy

1 hour ago, ChescoWx said:

Wow what great news!!! Promises made - promises kept!!

Seems like censorship to me. 

52 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

What a wild map! 

always cool when the abbreviated name of a state can also explain what happened with the snowstorm

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

Does the 81-2010 climatology differ from what Wxbell is using?

Wxbell uses 91-2020 norms, so it makes sense that it's displayed as colder there. 

Quick table that illustrates how rare warning level niña snows are in DC. Below is every instance in the 21st century. Anything 7"+ would be the biggest such snow in nearly two decades, and a total exceeding 9.3" would be the biggest since Jan '96. 

4 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Never seen such a quiet stretch of weather modeled, we can go 0.00 QPF for weeks in the heart of winter

that cutter pattern you predicted for the next 2 weeks could help with that

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

The southeast deserves it, congrats to DT

Quite a change in your tune from just a few days ago.. what happened?

On 12/27/2024 at 8:56 AM, qg_omega said:

Looks like a cutter pattern on the ensembles 

On 12/26/2024 at 7:45 AM, qg_omega said:

The pattern is ZZZ with rain chances for the next two weeks

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

really nice trend towards a taller AK ridge. went from a +EPO to -EPO in one model cycle

lol it casually sped up the pattern progression by 100 hours or so

On 12/3/2024 at 3:29 PM, qg_omega said:

Off by a week, don’t worry it’s coming

Here comes the record warmth you've been talking about for the past month!! Brace for impact!!

On 11/16/2024 at 10:35 AM, qg_omega said:

Record warmth looks likely to start December 

So close!! it's actually the coldest start in the East since at least 2010 ❤️❤️

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Insane to look at anomalies, they will be wrong when the pattern verifies

Notable 5 poster thinks this h5 pattern will produce a record warm start to December for the CONUS

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Of course we don’t know exactly when…but the longer we go, the more certain it will be that it flips.  

We've flipped a coin and hit tails 5+ consecutive times so we must be due for a stretch of heads soon.. sounds like a case of gambler's fallacy