Cobalt

I've definitely seen worse.. it's interesting that the ensembles are once again diverging from the OP at this range, much like last week's storm. 

Central Tim is only here to spend his Saturday night looking for reactions. Block, simple as that.

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Ding ding ding

NAO isn’t as critical. (Virtually) No way DC is getting 18” with a +AO. But that PNA is basically ideal, so a better than normal event is possible on that basis alone. 

FWIW, the GEFS has the AO nearing neutral at the end of the storm (~0z Jan 31st). That at least can't hurt, but yeah there is definitely a ceiling given the pattern.

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Knickerbockerish

1 minute ago, DCAlexandria said:

Got my beer and ready for happy hour!


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Pretty bold of you to use your one allotted daily post on that.

hmm.. SS energy is a bit more held back at hr 102 for the GFS compared to 18z.. might give it a bit more of a chance to separate from the northern stream energy 

Slightly healthier press of cold air as well..

Just now, cbmclean said:

Apparently Connecticut is its own climate zone.

I've heard the St. Louis subforum is bustling this time of year. 

19 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

HH Eps with a positive shift for  the day 5/6 threat . NS further east out ahead and more emphasis on the stj sw energy in the gulf . Both the 18z Euro and control are stronger with the sw ejecting out of the sw at hour 90.

The trend so far this January has been for the NS to be modeled as faster when closing in range.. reel this one in!

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

You were good until '93.  But averaged out, track should keep DC mostly snow

Probably still a bit far west, gotta throw in a Dec 2010 for good measure 

31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Agreed. One interesting thing to watch though is in the frames right after the one I posted some ridging develops near Hudson Bay. That’s a feature that shows up in a lot of our non blocking snowstorms acting as a proxy in a way. If we see that more clearly in future runs it might increase probability of a decent storm a bit. 

Definitely showing up more on the 12z EPS compared to recent runs. 

17 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

I’m learning from you all that the GFS doesn’t accurately do well with the SS in the long to mid range. Is that why the GFS didn’t pick up on the Jan 3rd storm until about 48 hours out?   Do any of the other models figure this out any better? 

Actually, the GFS seemed to be the best fit model for Jan 3rd. I was under the belief that this was due to the model's handling of the northern stream, modelling that piece of energy to be faster than any other guidance, which caused it to get out of the way faster and allow the SS shortwave to amplify. Someone can correct me on this, but I do definitely remember that it was showing glimpses of decent hits at ~60-72hrs out, but upped the ante with other guidance following suit shortly after.

3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

1040 high north of NY at precip start 

Negative teens into PA Friday morning (on the mean, which should have its cold be even more muted). Couldn't ask for a better airmass.

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Looks like better phasing on the 18z

Mhm, would probably give us some more wiggle room if it meets in the middle with the GFS/Canadian

Also, that HP strength and positioning looks even better compared to 12z. Real stout one over top

Just a tiny difference..

5 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

Can we get them all to phase?

A septuple phased system might be so amped that it loops around the globe a full time.. would still clip NW Virginia though

Hmmm... 

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

if this is truly a non-event and the EURO is showing 20" 5 days out we need to write a protest letter to the EU, or whoever is in charge of it. 

The differences in h5 are already incredibly apparent at hr 84. Check out GFS vs Euro for that timeframe. Those differences amplify very quickly afterwards

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

WB snow maps are ridiculously bad

While that is inflated due to Kuchera, precip is pretty hefty too. If this falls in the low 20s with 850s well below freezing as depicted? Could definitely see ratios better than 10:1.

2.6" as of 5:45pm, right before sleet took over. All in all the storm definitely met expectations with several hours of SN/SN+. Feels like it's been ages since we've had a cold temps Colorado powder type event, and this definitely delivered.

Oh, and that makes 12.9" of snow so far on the winter. Snowiest through Jan 16th since.. 09/10 

1.0” as of 4pm. This marks the earliest that this location has had three separate 1” snow events since the 2013/2014 winter. Impressive stretch around these parts.


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0.6" as of 3:30. Nothing like watching cold powder fall at home with some bad football alongside it. 

6 years to the day...

Just now, Amped said:

Impressive snowstorm in the SE.    Another closed low 500 low moving across the gulf coast

Looks pretty enticing. NAO goes from - to + during this timeframe, so there's decent HA storm signal. Would probably also help offset how far east the trough is. Ensembles should be fun.