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RDRY

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Everything posted by RDRY

  1. RDRY
    I'm in the Berks for this one.
  2. RDRY
    GFS way south, NAM way north and everything in between -- New York City is always sitting pretty.
  3. RDRY
    Northeast winter storm forecasting is just brutal. What a humbling profession.
  4. RDRY
    Banding at 60 not as robust for them.
  5. RDRY
    Lost maybe a few hours of that norlun feature from 18z, which is a must for higher totals in western MA.
  6. RDRY
    RGEM is an absurd weather model -- it had its 15 minutes of fame several winters back, and now resides in Snookyville. This low is not driving heavy precip halfway through Vermont and New Hampshire.
  7. RDRY
    I wonder if it would be preferable to have super-accurate forecast models (say, 5-day forecasts being as reliable as current 1-day forecasts). Definitely be a lot fewer posts here.
  8. RDRY
    Heh. Baby steps on the GFS. That's just how it rolls.
  9. RDRY
    Precip hangs on several hours longer on the 12k compared to 6z -- almost looks like a norlun trough.
  10. RDRY
    On 12/11/2020 at 11:19 PM, RDRY said: Upper levels just don't support this hitting north of pike. The 500 MB trough orientation is more east-west than north-south.
  11. RDRY
    The para is the upgraded GFS? Seems very erratic.
  12. RDRY
    Of the 4 main globals, I assume Euro verification is still #1. Which one is 2nd?
  13. RDRY
    Not surprised. GFS does this -- goes off on its own and holds for several runs. It's always possible it has the better read on this storm, but it's not likely. The ICON in its corner like Jack the Ripper as the cutman.
  14. RDRY
    Nitpicking the end of a 12k NAM run, but it's weird that the low doesn't deepen (996) between 78 and 84 hours.
  15. RDRY
    Classic GFS at this range. It goes rogue and holds its solution for several runs before joining the party.
  16. RDRY
    Does the ICON have any known biases? To my very untrained eye, it just always seems to be erratic.
  17. RDRY
    GFS has about the same low position approaching Jersey. But the high wins the battle with the weaker system.
  18. RDRY
    Strong shortwave -- check Arctic high + block -- check Gulf moisture -- check Atlantic moisture -- check
  19. RDRY
    Steve Cohen and a mid-December nor'easter. Spoiled.
  20. RDRY
    Trough sharpened up at 102. Makes the difference.
  21. RDRY
    Alrighty then.
  22. RDRY
  23. RDRY
    March '93 would have been the reigning king if it could have nudged another 100 miles east. As it was, craziest storm conditions I've ever seen.
  24. RDRY
    Jan '96, Feb '83 and Boxing Day -- Queens top 3.
  25. RDRY
    I believe January '96 was a classic example.
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