JoMo

00z Canadian going to have the system on Tues/Wed as well. Interesting runs. The GFS solution on Sat was a bit sketchy as it doesn't have much support from any other model. That was always a situation where everything had to come together perfectly and there wasn't much multi-model support for that. The Sunday-Monday system has a greater probability of being at least somewhat more successful assuming everything comes together decently, and then the Wed system may come together if the Sun/Mon system doesn't.

You all get a bunch of snow with the 2nd system on the GFS?

Looks like no Wed system on this run, either, of the 00z GFS. 00z Canadian says nope to the Sat system. EDIT: 00z Canadian is more impressive with the Sun/Mon system.

The only way the Sat system was going to be good for everyone was if there was an interaction between a little northern piece of energy wrapping around the big upper low and that system sliding across the south. As long as there was interaction then the GFS was golden, but this run doesn't show much interaction. The snow across OK appears to be due to 850 temp advection/frontogenesis. The Sunday/Monday system still looks decent and it has much greater potential.

Looks like the 00z GFS continues to lower snow amounts with the Sat system.

Heavy freezing drizzle here.

And the Tues/Wed system is probably going to have more precip as well.

The Sunday/Monday system is more impressive on the 18z GFS.

And system 3 which is just the trough digging out is on Tues/Wed, could have some snow somewhere with that as well. So, lots to watch.

There's a little more light snow action in KS and N OK on the 12z Euro with the first system but it's also going to miss as well. EDIT: System 2 on Sunday/Monday remains interesting on the Euro.

12z UKMET was a no go as well.

No go. American models vs foreign models I guess.

Amounts were less with the first system. Decent fgen at 850.

At least the cold air has deepened enough here to switch things to flurries.

I'm still not sold on the Saturdayish system on the GFS. The 00z UKMET/GEM all stuck to their guns. I think the better chances are on Monday.

Model performance drops like a rock after Day 5 or so. So, the farther you go out, the worse they will end up being and the effects are almost exponential. With that being said, there were signs that somewhere was going to get a big Arctic dump since the polar vortex split in January. The AO has tanked, even though I think it's been negative the entire meteorological winter.

Yeah, the temp has now dropped to 20, HRRR is a couple degrees too warm, and it indicates falling temps through the afternoon/evening.

12z Canadian isn't going to have that system since it keeps the big upper low wound up better and farther west, so the piece of energy that causes the snow passes by well north of the area. Wyoming/Montana area moving east: GFS has it digging more SE over ID/UT: EDIT: But the GEM does key in on a second piece of energy that causes snow a day or so later.

I don't think it gets above zero for either of us on Sat?

hahaha. That's going to be an interesting system with multiple interactions. You get what... 11-12" via Kuchera method?

Yeah, lots of accidents here as well. Typical of freezing drizzle events that people don't take as seriously because it's "just mist". Schools cancelled last night. Everything has a thin glaze on it so no worries about power outages, unless cars hit power poles (already happened a few times).

After rising to at least 30 last night, the cold air sloshed back south and it's now 22. Although areas just barely south of Joplin are in the upper 20's to around 30 still. The HRRR is correcting by getting progressively colder each run as it oozes the cold air south each run. It looked like it was going to get up to around 32 today, the highest hourly temp it reaches is now 25 and that's this morning.

It's like 22 out. Not sure we will hit the 30s today..... WWA expanded to SW MO.

WWA's now extending into NE OK and NW AR.

That's because the Canadian takes the big upper low way west and induces strong SW flow. While the GFS has it farther east to the NE of the Great Lakes