Newman

And soundings show storm motions will be upward of 65-70 mph. With that forward motion, it'll elevate the risk of a damaging wind threat.

I like the York/Lancaster/Chester county areas as a potential hotspot for an elevated risk for a tornado tomorrow around 17z-20z. Models showing some supercells forming and rolling through the area. Hodographs are very curvy due to the insane shear and wind profile up above, the LCL looks to be around 400-500 meters which is favorable too. If any sun can pop out for a time and boost SBCAPE values, watch out. Could be an interesting time tomorrow. Oh, and check out the 12z NAM. Snow on wednesday?

The 12z 3k NAM sure is showing some curvy hodographs. This one right around the DC area at 18z:

A rare Day 3 outlook upgrade:

I agree, the parameters are solid for some severe weather but the overall extent of convection and precip looks meager. Maybe a stray severe storm here or there tomorrow.

3k NAM sounding for my area tomorrow. Bring on severe weather already!

It just looks awful in the long range. I knew the trough/cold would want to center around the mid country and great lakes, but I figured maybe some high latitude blocking could bleed the cold east. Nope. Cold, dry. Warm, wet. Rinse repeat. Maybe March lol?

I would agree here. 1.75" of snow and 0.5" of sleet so a 2.25" storm total. A little over 7" on this abomination of a winter so far.

Mostly sleet here with some large flakes mixed in, 1.75" of snow.

1" on the board already.

That pink band that passed through Berks is tasty. It's straight dumping here right now. Roads and everything covered.

Wind blown light-moderate snow. 20 degrees.

Took until the 30 dbz echoes but yeah finally getting some wind blown light snow right now.

That backside band did wonders here. Finished with 2.5", season tally up to 4.8".

This back end band is ripping. Roads finally caving.

Light snow still, tapering off a little with lighter echos and drying beginning to become more evident. 1 inch of snow on the board.

Well at the least got a decent coating already on grassy surfaces. Light snow, bordering moderate at times. Temp down to 35.

Light snow has begun here in Fleetwood. After a high of 43, temp has dropped to 38

GFS improved a lot for Berks and Chester county's

GFS improved for much of the LSV

Temps are warm, but I definitely do think parts of SE PA can pick up 1-2" tomorrow especially if rates are heavy enough. I definitely wouldn't take the GFS 10:1 snow map seriously (well you never should), but take it as where the heaviest snows could likely fall tomorrow evening. As the secondary forms off the coast, you'll see the radar collapse likely and the QPF will dry out. There will definitely be a shadow effect when the transfer occurs. Here's hoping we can hold onto the small but potent primary long enough...

18z NAM QPF is juicy

Yep an uptick in QPF from 0z to 12z on the Euro

Little over a half inch. Puts me at a whopping 2.3" on the season...

Deck pic my dad sent me this morning from back home in Fleetwood. 2" on the car, 1.5" on the measuring board.