Newman

The wind right behind the low-topped line is gonna roar for some. KLNS is up to 45 mph sustained and gusting to 60 mph. Brother in Lancaster just lost power

Latest Day 2 from the SPC. 45-60% hatched wind for most, greatest tornado risk is just to the west across south-central PA where a 10-15% hatched risk is outlooked. Given the extremely high shear but low cape environment, damaging QLCS winds will be favored but there will be line mergers and perhaps a few lone cells capable of a stronger tornado. The failure modes I'm seeing are 1. Given the potency of the upper-level trough, there may be "too many" showers and storms developing and competing with each other pre-frontal 2. Early day clouds and showers will limit destabilization 3. Strong southerly winds may or may not create a localized "minimum" in severe weather across SE PA where a narrow marine layer could advect off the Chesapeake Bay Regardless, we haven't seen a severe weather event of this caliber in at least a few years. It will get very cold again behind the front, so make sure if you lose power you have a plan

Latest Day 3 from SPC. 45% wind probs just south of the Mason Dixon

Posted this down in the Mid-Atlantic thread, but the CSU machine learning forecast is still looking ugly for Monday. I do believe the greatest tornado threat will remain *mostly* south and east of the Mason-Dixon, but a damaging QLCS is still nothing to scoff at. Embedded spin-ups a real possibility too. Will need to watch how the system evolves over the next 2 days as there is still a non-zero chance this evolves more into a discrete supercell type event for SE PA. New Day 3 SPC comes out in 30 min

Latest 12z CSU-MLP forecast for Monday

They almost certainly have to do a rating for the Jan 25-26th storm, I'm very surprised it's not on there yet. I also just discovered they're including storms that impact areas outside the East Coast? I guess they have always done so if the storm impacts the Northeast in some capacity. December 2022 which was almost entirely uneventful for the East, outside of northern New England, is ranked 4th on the all-time NESIS scale for it's large snow footprint over the upper Mid-West and northern Plains. With that in mind, the January storm should be coming up soon.

From the NCEI site: NCEI is targeting a late-week release for the February 22-24, 2026 snow storm NESIS value.

From the NCEI site: NCEI is targeting a late-week release for the February 22-24, 2026 snow storm NESIS value.

Certainly far from a ratter winter, it's been cold and snowy and anytime you hit average snow it's better than most. Another storm though would elevate this season to an A+. This season was filled with "what ifs". We had probably 3 or 4 storm threats that never materialized, which makes the near to above average snowfall all that more impressive when you consider we missed out on some larger opportunities.

Same in Fleetwood, not even a dusting. Seasonal total is so far 34.25 inches which is near average for a winter season. Next Monday could be huge in the final winter grade for Berks.

They actually have 37.9" as of 7pm, shattering their previous record of 28.6. Still snowing as you said https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=RERPVD&e=202602240000

Also, remember that two things can be true at the same time here. This was an amazing, historic storm for many that lived up to expectations. But also a huge underperformer for others. This was never going to be a 1996 or 2016 that smacked almost the entire region in widespread 1-3 feet.

Gotcha, that's good to know I was looking at the PHL 7am report ha. It came down to wherever that western deformation band set up, which we knew would be the case. The NWS did very with far SE PA, Jersey, and Delaware. But NW burbs not so much. It just is what it is.

I've actually gotta agree with @LVLion77here. If we take a look at the NWS official forecast from yesterday morning, many many places busted significantly low on totals. I don't have their map right before the storm when they lowered totals, but I know even then they were too high in a lot of places west of 476. Based on this map: 24" in Mount Pocono? Last I saw they had 4". 15" in Reading? More like 4". Fleetwood was under a warning for 7-14" and we got 5. ChescoWX was in the 18-24" contour and he got 9-10". Even 20" in Philly center city will be too high. Overall Jersey did well, and they nailed the local max along the Jersey coast. None of this is to discredit the NWS of course, I'm not sure what else they could've done with the data on their hands yesterday morning. I know they'll go back and evaluate what went wrong and what they could've done better. I think there was obviously too much lean on the western NAM/HRRR/FV3 outliers. But the RGEM was ridiculously low on the far eastern side. If you're on this forum, you knew yesterday morning things were shifting back east and that totals would be significantly less so right then your expectations should've been with a modest plowable snow. If I'm the general public in Allentown and I looked at this map yesterday and planned for 15"? Well then yeah, I'd call it a bust. I think the NWS just went too high too soon and then played catch up last second.