Newman

They actually have 37.9" as of 7pm, shattering their previous record of 28.6. Still snowing as you said https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=RERPVD&e=202602240000

Also, remember that two things can be true at the same time here. This was an amazing, historic storm for many that lived up to expectations. But also a huge underperformer for others. This was never going to be a 1996 or 2016 that smacked almost the entire region in widespread 1-3 feet.

Gotcha, that's good to know I was looking at the PHL 7am report ha. It came down to wherever that western deformation band set up, which we knew would be the case. The NWS did very with far SE PA, Jersey, and Delaware. But NW burbs not so much. It just is what it is.

I've actually gotta agree with @LVLion77here. If we take a look at the NWS official forecast from yesterday morning, many many places busted significantly low on totals. I don't have their map right before the storm when they lowered totals, but I know even then they were too high in a lot of places west of 476. Based on this map: 24" in Mount Pocono? Last I saw they had 4". 15" in Reading? More like 4". Fleetwood was under a warning for 7-14" and we got 5. ChescoWX was in the 18-24" contour and he got 9-10". Even 20" in Philly center city will be too high. Overall Jersey did well, and they nailed the local max along the Jersey coast. None of this is to discredit the NWS of course, I'm not sure what else they could've done with the data on their hands yesterday morning. I know they'll go back and evaluate what went wrong and what they could've done better. I think there was obviously too much lean on the western NAM/HRRR/FV3 outliers. But the RGEM was ridiculously low on the far eastern side. If you're on this forum, you knew yesterday morning things were shifting back east and that totals would be significantly less so right then your expectations should've been with a modest plowable snow. If I'm the general public in Allentown and I looked at this map yesterday and planned for 15"? Well then yeah, I'd call it a bust. I think the NWS just went too high too soon and then played catch up last second.

About 5" in Fleetwood storm total. But wow, congrats to all who scored big on this one! Those in SE Bucks County definitely hit the jack on this one as far as totals in PA go. Incredible radar image across southern New England this morning with a firehose band with 6" hour rates in it. Saw a report out of Rhode Island up to 35". Providence RI might break their all time record from 1978

If it wasn't already known, it's looking more and more obvious that this area is going to be the PA jackpot zone. Would not be surprised to see some 20+" reports in there, maybe even some 2 feet reports. Jersey is an entirely different animal, I wouldn't be surprised by a 3-feet+ final total somewhere

Just looking at my folks front doorbell camera, estimating about 3" or so in Fleetwood? I should mention they are about 5 miles east of the center of Fleetwood up in the "higher" elevations

Dusting in Fleetwood thus far, snow is increasing

My final call for Berks and Lehigh Valley is 4-8". I think the NWS will begin to trim back on the totals further NW in their next package. All of the western learners (NAM, HRRR, SREFs) are shifting east now as they were (unsurprisingly) too amplified with the trough and mid-level lows. I can see a scenario where parts of this area get screwed between the IVT to the west and CCB to the east. We'll see how the cards are dealt, I hope I'm wrong and areas to the NW get in on the goods. I will say, one way this area could exceed expectations is in the daytime snow today. I will be signing off from the storm for much of the rest of the day, good luck everyone!

Tropical tidbits 700mb temp advection/frontogenesis as well as the h700 heights/vorticity map. You can see on the GFS the 700mb fronto band continuing to trend east pretty clearly. But again, it's now casting time. It'll soon be time to watching observations and mesoanalysis as to where the bands actually set up.

The ticks east in the NAM, GFS, and HRRR guidance are very noticeable, we may start to be seeing Berks/Lehigh on the western fringe now with significantly less totals IF models are right. I'm still inclined to believe banding reaches further west but we will 100% have to now cast with this

For NW burbs: the GFS has been ticking east with where the H7 low closes off and how fast it moves/slows down. The small ticks east with that is why areas further NW have been losing some QPF/snow. Again, we just don't know where that will set up right now and 8-16" throughout Berks and the Lehigh Valley is a good call based on current data. What will happen tomorrow is the precip shield will begin to blossom as the baroclinic leaf expands/PVA rotates into the coast with the trough tilting negative. I would not be surprised to see snow as far back as Pittsburgh. Then, as the mid-level lows close off, the larger precip shield will begin to collapse back towards central/eastern PA as the secondary circulation fronto bands rapidly develop. Also, there appears to be an IVT develop across Central PA. You will likely see a dual band structure with the coastal low: one closer to the coast with 850mb fronto and one further NW with 700mb fronto. There will inherently be some subsidence just outside of those bands. These bands will be rotating off the ocean from SE to NW. Who ever can catch the pivot point of either of those bands will score the jackpot. Even outside of those bands it will be snowing hard. Now one of the biggest differences between our models remains just how stalled out our surface low gets, and therefore how long those intense frontogenesis bands have time to rotate inland. The NAM remains the most amped outlier and tucks/stalls the system for hours, so these bands can extend much further inland. The RGEM is less amped and quicker, so the bands are quick to depart eastward. In summary, this has nothing to do with the storm track anymore. The differences really come down to how amplified and stacked these mid-level lows get.

RGEM is ummm, concerning

The RRFS would be fun if you're a Berks/Lehigh Valley weenie... 2-4" of snow only LOL. FV3-GFS also went east a bit... Not all of these NOAA meso models should at all be taken seriously though, they don't excel in large synoptic systems