Newman

Quite the bust with this wave. The Euro AI did well on not biting on this one

A couple climate statistics for Allentown as we wrapped up August: The average temperature was 70.0F, the coolest August since 2008. Likewise the average minimum was 58.3F, the lowest since 2008. The lowest minimum recorded was 45F, which is the lowest August min since 2000 (which tied with a min of 45). The next year that recorded a lower minimum in August is 1986! 1.6" of precip fell, which is the driest August since 2008.

Echoing what Andy said on twitter here, this has been my thinking with any tropical system development in the MDR this month: https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1952439813619003854 We've had round after round of SAL outbreaks across the Atlantic the past month or two. It looks to relax a bit in this favorable stretch approaching, but I won't believe any model until we see a potent AEW with persistent convection. Also, beyond just a wave developing into a TC, I think the real key in the modeling is how they handle the weak ULL in the north Atlantic and if that allows for a weakness for a TC to slip north. Current SAL situation: 12z GFS with the tropical wave and some lessening of the dry upper air regime.

The WPC just issued a Moderate risk for flash flooding across the I-95 corridor tomorrow. The HRRR and NAM are both showing PWATs upwards of 2.2-2.5" and the front looks to be draped right across NW PA with plenty of moisture transport into the region

My brother in Lititz last night got smoked with nearly 6" of rain. More on the way today

Confirmed/observed tornado just 6-7 miles east of Laramie today, crazy storm. Went and picked up some golf balls once the storm passed. Probably 2-3 inches of accumulated hail in the hardest hit areas

16/7/3

Photos I took of the Akron, CO tornado yesterday. Edited slightly to make the tornado pop a bit more, the dust made the visibility super low!

Things look stormy and active from Wednesday through the weekend across the front range and plains. A pretty potent shortwave trough and -PNA will result in quite a few disturbances rotating through the region. The orientation and strength of the PNA will determine where the bulk of the precip goes and whether the front range gets in on a favorable moisture advection regime. Currently a marginal risk from the SPC for Wednesday

I'm not sure we even picked up 1 inch here in Laramie, under a WWA for 3-6"

Gotcha, was just going off the MesoWest site https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=KRDG&unit=0&timetype=GMT

My folk in Fleetwood had a big tree go down in the backyard this afternoon. Looks like peak gust at KRDG was 57 mph this afternoon. More shallow convection moving through right now

From my folk just in Fleetwood... Over an inch of snow on cold surfaces this morning before things started to melt. Certainly didn't expect accumulating snow to get as far south as Berks, let alone over an inch

12z Euro is pretty much bone dry for the next 10 days across the Lehigh Valley. GFS keeps temps in lower 50s while Euro gets into mid-upper 50s. Quite possible this final stretch of February gets some climate stations back closer to normal for the month after a cold start

To be honest, the coastal storm itself is probably long gone at this point for much of the SE PA region. The ULL snows though are very much a plausible possibility with a C-1"