Newman

Well obviously the Jan 7-10th period isn't going to work out and we've regressed back to maybe around the 1/13-1/17 period or so for winter weather prospects returning. However, ensembles aren't too keen on any real help in the NAO department (perhaps a weak -NAO just to keep lower heights in Canada). So although we have a more favorable EPO/Pacific regime, which will help to bring the cold back, we might see a lot of waves zip down the ridge out west and slide quickly through the Mid-Atlantic. With no anomalous -NAO, there won't be opportunity for any 50/50 lows to settle into place. So yes there could definitely be snow in mid-January (as long as we don't regress any more), though I don't see any big wound up coastal storm chances outside of a rogue double/triple phaser if the northern and southern streams cooperate, though chances of that are slim with the faster flow. Perhaps a faster flow advisory or low-end warning type event. Things start looking better around 1/22, assuming the MJO progresses how I think it will. The 12z Euro for 1/15 looks close on the h500 maps with some phasing going on, though in reality there's the kicker system on its heels pushing everything quickly east so the trough can't turn negative. We're still 9 days out though so a lot will change from now to then

The big ones get sniffed out 8-10 days ahead of time. I remember tracking 2016 for what seemed like ages. The emotional rollercoaster ride when everything shifted south, only for the NAM to score a coup on bringing it further north within the last 2-3 days. Obviously the pattern coming up Jan 6-10th or so looks unreal with the retrograding NAO block and split flow, but details are TBD if there's good timing with short waves in the flow. If we can get a solidly timed PNA spike WITHOUT a shortwave kicker screwing things up, I truly think the ceiling is some of the big uns in history. Just go back and look at the preloading patterns of the biggest storms for PHL, DCA, BWI, NYC, etc Edit just to add: In no way am I guaranteeing a KU, but it's gotta be encouraging seeing some semblance of a pattern that can support said larger storms vs. Pac puke and zonal flow. Or cold and dry Northwest flow

Definitely time for nowcasting. The models are usually never perfect in nailing the warm nose and the timing of said warm nose. Who knows, maybe it comes in heavier and colder so areas thump for an hour or two and pick up more snow? Or maybe the warm nose is deeper and it's more freezing rain vs sleet? We'll see.

1-2" of snow/sleet looks like a good bet for most. Latest 12z HRRR is 0.4-0.5" of QPF area wide. With 3:1 sleet ratios, that'll get you the 1-2" of accumulation. Let's say something like the 0z FV3 comes to fruition which keeps the warm nose/WAA a bit muted, then perhaps in heavier rates you could stay snow longer for some areas and eek out an additional inch of snow. But the latest 12z FV3 came in with a lot of sleet.

Really a great performance from the RRFS and HRRR which were highlighting the 6-8" strip somewhere across SE PA early yesterday morning

7.1" on the season in Fleetwood now, about 3 weeks ahead of normal

5.75" in Fleetwood

Wow! I just checked the radar loop and your area has been under the best banding all night. Love it.

Temp is down to 32° in Fleetwood with moderate snow according to my folk, looking forward to the pics from everyone. It will be my first ever winter not seeing snow now that I live and work in Florida so I will live vicariously through you all, enjoy this one!

I'm surprised Mount Holly didn't mention "localized 6 inches" for the WSW. I also thought they might follow what State College did with Lancaster and York counties and put Berks, Lehigh, Northampton under 2-5 inches. Would love to read their latest AFD to see if they're just playing it safe or if they don't trust some of the latest short term guidance from the HREF, HRRR, and RRFS. It's also kinda splitting hairs I know

HRRR has a band with 1"+ rates set up over Lancaster -> Lehigh from about midnight through 4am. Whoever ends up under that 850-700mb fronto band for an extended period of time will easily grab 4-6"

Close to go time I know, but 6z EPS bumped up QPF as well. Upper-levels ticking more favorably, hopefully the ticks continue right up to storm onset. Philly EPS mean is 4" and probability of snowfall exceeding 4" is now 53%.

1am sounding for Allentown off the 3k, wow! Plenty of ascent right in the DGZ. The 10pm - 3am timeframe will probably be when the LHV gets the best rates before everything shunts southeast. Snow might be done by sunrise tomorrow morning

6z Euro is quite a bit more wet for the Lehigh Valley. Solid 2-4", many of the mesos are also bringing WWA amounts north. Should be a solid event for the area.

12Z Euro shifted a bit back SE after the northwest bump at 6Z. It digs the TPV just a bit further south over the Great Lakes which keeps the heights a smidge more suppressed. But largely it's been super steady. 1-2" across the Lehigh Valley and 2-4" I-95 corridor sounds like a good bet.