Newman

Overnight models showing a pretty reasonable "fail mode" in the fast flow we're in... 1. All of the PVA escapes east of the low and 2. The trough struggles to turn negative and fully consolidate due to the kicker system. In the end, it just turns into a paltry ULL passage with light snows. Even if a coastal low does pop, it's so far removed from any moisture. That's not to say the current OP runs are horrible, if the "floor" is a light 2-3" event with jacks to 6, that's fine. But some of the bigger solutions will only pan out if we can get this more consolidated.

The top CIPS analog from the 12z GFS is 1996 lol. No I'm not forecasting or even implying this could reach to that level.

Ha, well 2016 was one. I know 2021 had h500 closed off but it wasn't vertically stacked.

EPS last 3 runs trend. Again as is, the 12z Euro still gives much of the Lehigh Valley 4-8" of snow

Even as is interior locations get widespread 4-8". Tighten it up a bit more and it's the GFS

Very close, EPS will be telling

Like the 12z GFS advertised, yes if the energy diving down the ridge can cut off, it'll vertically stack and just crawl along the coast. What helps the GFS is that shortwave energy is super amped and dives meridionally down the ridge, so it amplifies the heights out ahead of it through PVA and T-advection very sharply, and then so much so that the trough cuts off.

Alot is dependent on what that TPV lobe does. The Canadian is vastly different from the GFS and dives that south into the country, the GFS scoots it east. Ideally, we want it to get out of the way like the GFS and just let the energy consolidate/cut off on its own

Yep, quite a few more legit storms on the GEFS. If this trend continues, we'll probably reach an inflection point. Still don't trust the GFS fully, but at least there's something on our side and all models at 12z have been improvements, some significant

Somehow the 12z GFS just became even more amped than 0z. Wow! Should be a great run. Probably brief rain to snow as the bowling ball rolls underneath

Check out the 12z GFS coming in, should be good news here

Admittedly I hadn't looked at the individual ensembles until now. You're right, the 0z Euro only had maybe 4 indis that even showed a coastal scraper. Haven't seen the 6z yet

Remember last February where the models were showing a HECS in the 120-160hour range, and then they completely backed off in literally like one model cycle after it was clear the massive TPV wasn't going to phase properly with our southern vort? That's what could happen again here, but maybe we trend more favorably? Just have to watch it play out

I think having a 51 member ensemble will inherently result in a pretty smoothed look over what is a fickle setup and truly boom or bust. However, even a few more ticks towards the GFS on the Euro ENS will probably start to yield at least some light upper level snows. Ride the ensembles though, them having nothing shows the low probability of this happening until we see more support

The Euro has been ticking slowly to the GFS for the 15-16th deal. We really need the southern vort to not get stuck behind the northern energy or else you get destructive wave interference. The 6z Euro jumped closer to better phasing and more favorable orientation. Continue watching for now, I don't think we've seen the final solution yet (for better or for worse). The 0z GFS was bonkers and probably the ceiling lol