Newman

The EPS and GEFS both came out hot with current 96L as well and slowly backed off to the point now we're seeing significantly less individual ensembles even produce a weak tropical disturbance, if anything at all. The EPS was consistent with the quick recurve north and looks to have notched a victory here with regards to track, but initially it was much more potent with 96L. All of that to say... Until there's an actual tropical system, these models usually run hot on development. I think this next wave will take longer to develop than currently modeled. I believe the pattern favors the next wave making it into the SW Atlantic, and the environment is much more conducive to development. Give it 4-5 days here and the ensembles will be telling

Echoing what Andy said on twitter here, this has been my thinking with any tropical system development in the MDR this month: https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1952439813619003854 We've had round after round of SAL outbreaks across the Atlantic the past month or two. It looks to relax a bit in this favorable stretch approaching, but I won't believe any model until we see a potent AEW with persistent convection. Also, beyond just a wave developing into a TC, I think the real key in the modeling is how they handle the weak ULL in the north Atlantic and if that allows for a weakness for a TC to slip north. Current SAL situation: 12z GFS with the tropical wave and some lessening of the dry upper air regime.

The WPC just issued a Moderate risk for flash flooding across the I-95 corridor tomorrow. The HRRR and NAM are both showing PWATs upwards of 2.2-2.5" and the front looks to be draped right across NW PA with plenty of moisture transport into the region

Latest 8pm NHC advisory bumped it up to 40% odds 1. East of the Florida Peninsula into the Northeastern Gulf (AL93): An area of low pressure located offshore of the east coast of Florida continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms primarily south of the center. This system is forecast to move westward across the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday and Tuesday night, eventually moving into the northeastern Gulf by the middle part of this week. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional development if the system remains offshore, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves across the northeastern and north-central Gulf by the middle to latter part of this week. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf coast through the middle to latter portion of this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

My brother in Lititz last night got smoked with nearly 6" of rain. More on the way today

Confirmed/observed tornado just 6-7 miles east of Laramie today, crazy storm. Went and picked up some golf balls once the storm passed. Probably 2-3 inches of accumulated hail in the hardest hit areas

16/7/3

Photos I took of the Akron, CO tornado yesterday. Edited slightly to make the tornado pop a bit more, the dust made the visibility super low!

Things look stormy and active from Wednesday through the weekend across the front range and plains. A pretty potent shortwave trough and -PNA will result in quite a few disturbances rotating through the region. The orientation and strength of the PNA will determine where the bulk of the precip goes and whether the front range gets in on a favorable moisture advection regime. Currently a marginal risk from the SPC for Wednesday

I'm not sure we even picked up 1 inch here in Laramie, under a WWA for 3-6"

Gotcha, was just going off the MesoWest site https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=KRDG&unit=0&timetype=GMT

My folk in Fleetwood had a big tree go down in the backyard this afternoon. Looks like peak gust at KRDG was 57 mph this afternoon. More shallow convection moving through right now

From my folk just in Fleetwood... Over an inch of snow on cold surfaces this morning before things started to melt. Certainly didn't expect accumulating snow to get as far south as Berks, let alone over an inch

12z Euro is pretty much bone dry for the next 10 days across the Lehigh Valley. GFS keeps temps in lower 50s while Euro gets into mid-upper 50s. Quite possible this final stretch of February gets some climate stations back closer to normal for the month after a cold start

To be honest, the coastal storm itself is probably long gone at this point for much of the SE PA region. The ULL snows though are very much a plausible possibility with a C-1"