Newman

The models didn't trend as sharply as we needed them to last night tbh. This threat is not dead yet, but we're going to really need some dramatic shifts north with where the low closes off and the confluence over New England. I think back to the system in the middle of this month that had the models sending NS energy way south and cutting off over the TN valley. Well it ended up cutting off over the Great Lakes... The models were too "dig" happy. Different setup here with the decaying block pushing everything south, but we'll see

^Also, that analysis is all for nothing if we begin to trend towards the recent Euro runs. This was just to show how close we were to a big solution on the 18z GFS

Top two pictures are from the 6z Euro from YESTERDAY (1/26) that showed what would've been a top 5 NESIS event. Bottom pictures are from the most recent 18z GFS. From a broader view, you'd think the recent GFS would result in a major snowstorm with a closed off 500mb low about to roll under us. In fact, the confluent vorticity ribbon over northern New England isn't all too different, perhaps a bit further south on the GFS. However, the problem comes down to 6-12 hours of timing. The GFS is 1. 6-12 hours slower in evolution and 2. Just a bit too positively tilted (and slower). What that does is allow the PVA/southern stream energy to escape way out east of the trough before it gets pulled back into New England. Have you seen the GFS seemingly having "convective feedback" issues with multiple lows east of the center? Well, that is why. It doesn't know where the low center should be. The 6z Euro from yesterday though was faster, tilted neutral to negative 6-12 hours sooner, and that phase scooped up that southern stream shortwave/PVA and straight into the Jersey shore. GFS, with the PVA offshore because of a later phase and later tilt neutral/negative: Euro, which had better timing, tilt, etc:

GEFS looking better at hour 78. More separation of our TPV and better ridging between the two systems already. Not surprised though as the GEFS usually follow the OP. The western ridge also got better.

GFS... Lol. It's gonna hold or even be better here.

Let's hope 12z was rock bottom with this threat. 18z ICON ensembles much better and the mean sends 0.5" QPF well into southern PA. Yes this is not meant to be taken that seriously, but hey it's a good start to 18z

A blend of the 12z Allen Iversons (AIs) would put I-95 on the western fringe.

Ridge out west is a bit more amplified on the GFS, better wave separation between our 50/50 and NS shortwave cutting off, and the decaying NAO block is a bit more stout on the GFS forcing the wave more meridional -> pinches off sooner. You're right though, things don't look too dissimilar broadly but it's such a nuanced setup. Looking ahead, you want to see the GFS continue these trends and/or hold them. And need the Euro to adopt greater wave separation with our stretched out TPV. We want subtle ridging to build into New England where the Euro right now has the vorticity ribbon draped and keeping heights too low.

Top 3 CIPS analogs this afternoon based on the 12z GFS: 1. Jan 2016 2. BDB 2010 3. Jan 1996 There's my weenie contribution for the day, because yes we have time to draw this back NW but the Euro remaining put doesn't inspire confidence.

Verbatim, the storm occludes too far SE for the majority of SE PA. Again, if we get similar evolution but the shortwave doesn't dig as far south, this occludes right at our latitude and we get those massive totals that are currently depicted over Richmond. Need to see the Euro at least trend towards this,

12z GFS looking remarkably improved, gonna be a big hit for at least eastern folks

I wonder if we can sacrifice a super wound up, phased, negative tilted system with just having it dig less south and close off closer to our latitude. At least then you get some ULL snows. Certainly not giving up on this one yet, the larger setup is volatile to small changes

GFS is so close now. Our southern energy that phases with our closed off NS energy races out ahead just too much and doesn't get scooped up, so all of that PVA is too far OTS. That's what made the 6z Euro so special, the timing was nearly ideal with the trough turning negative and scooping up that southern energy/PVA and directing it straight into the Jersey shore. Let's see what the other models do here tonight.

The storm almost becomes warm core secluded with intense CAA/N winds on the western side of the system. Plus when it becomes vertically stacked, it occludes and you lose that mid-level WAA. Such an intense system would have an intense thermal contrast and there'd be a CCB/fronto band on the western side that helps to cool the column as well.

I like where we're at. If we see things continue to trend worse over the next 2-3 days, well then yeah this might just go OTS. Let's just hold it here and I'm fairly confident we can back this NW with favorable ticks with the ridge out west and the TPV split. There is absolutely no reason to be cliff jumping, I mean a lot of y'all just got double digit snows yesterday. We just saw very favorable shifts on the GFS suite, Canadian suite, and ICON. Lean on the ensembles for the next 2-3 days.