Newman

Yep I was wrong. The sheath was positive though which doesn't mean anything until we get into the flux rope which we've seen can instantly flip negative (or stay positive)

CME arrival appears to be running a bit behind the initial forecast of a 15-18UTC hit. Seeing indications of a 21-00UTC (4-7pm EST) hit instead, but I guess we'll see. And of course, we need a southward (negative) Bz for the storm to be geoeffective!

The red pillars were naked eye visible, couldn't believe it! Hoping tonight is even better, but we'll see.

Took this at 9:13 PM EST last night from Florida From my folk in Fleetwood around the same time:

Tallahassee FL tonight

Although the chances of a KU are inherently lower in a Niña with a less active subtropical jet, we've seen some big ones in Niña winters such as 1996 and, a few years ago, Feb 2021. My biggest concern for this winter is a relentless Pac Jet which is helping to push along this brief cold snap this week. We had a perfectly timed rossby wave break that dislodged a piece of the Polar Vortex southward into the Eastern US, amplified by a peaking +PNA ridge. But too much energy crashing into the west coast is keeping the flow too fast, so this deep trough is unable to deepen and turn negative as the ridge out west breaks down quickly. I feel like that will be a theme this winter... The Western ridge breaking down too soon. I hope I'm wrong though! I'm favoring a near-normal snowfall year for Philly which will feel well above average compared to recent years.

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Impacts in St. Johns/SE Canada from Melissa will largely depend on how far west it can get. The strongest winds will likely remain on the east side of the storm, so a miss east would keep any hurricane force gusts off the coast, though TS wind gusts would still be certain in areas

The dropsonde with the crazy winds came from the South/Southeast eyewall, the backside winds are going to be equally as intense

The center of the eye will actually go west of him

11am update still 185mph, 892mb

Yeah the jog north here right before landfall will get Josh head on in the eye

1935 Labor Day was the strongest ever Atlantic landfalling hurricane, by pressure, at 892mb. This will tie or surpass that.

There's the 10am update. WOW. 892mb and 185mph

Another thing to be reminded of... Much of Jamaica is well above sea level. For example, Mandeville (which could get raked by the eastern eyewall) has a population of 47,000 people or so and is at an elevation of 620 meters (2,000 feet). So I would absolutely expect higher gusts in those locations