Newman

Really a great performance from the RRFS and HRRR which were highlighting the 6-8" strip somewhere across SE PA early yesterday morning

7.1" on the season in Fleetwood now, about 3 weeks ahead of normal

5.75" in Fleetwood

Wow! I just checked the radar loop and your area has been under the best banding all night. Love it.

Temp is down to 32° in Fleetwood with moderate snow according to my folk, looking forward to the pics from everyone. It will be my first ever winter not seeing snow now that I live and work in Florida so I will live vicariously through you all, enjoy this one!

I'm surprised Mount Holly didn't mention "localized 6 inches" for the WSW. I also thought they might follow what State College did with Lancaster and York counties and put Berks, Lehigh, Northampton under 2-5 inches. Would love to read their latest AFD to see if they're just playing it safe or if they don't trust some of the latest short term guidance from the HREF, HRRR, and RRFS. It's also kinda splitting hairs I know

HRRR has a band with 1"+ rates set up over Lancaster -> Lehigh from about midnight through 4am. Whoever ends up under that 850-700mb fronto band for an extended period of time will easily grab 4-6"

Close to go time I know, but 6z EPS bumped up QPF as well. Upper-levels ticking more favorably, hopefully the ticks continue right up to storm onset. Philly EPS mean is 4" and probability of snowfall exceeding 4" is now 53%.

1am sounding for Allentown off the 3k, wow! Plenty of ascent right in the DGZ. The 10pm - 3am timeframe will probably be when the LHV gets the best rates before everything shunts southeast. Snow might be done by sunrise tomorrow morning

6z Euro is quite a bit more wet for the Lehigh Valley. Solid 2-4", many of the mesos are also bringing WWA amounts north. Should be a solid event for the area.

12Z Euro shifted a bit back SE after the northwest bump at 6Z. It digs the TPV just a bit further south over the Great Lakes which keeps the heights a smidge more suppressed. But largely it's been super steady. 1-2" across the Lehigh Valley and 2-4" I-95 corridor sounds like a good bet.

A couple things I'm interested in: 1. As we near this event, how do the mesos trend with the upper level jet and any small ticks in TPV placement to allow greater height rises (or worsening). 2. QPF trends on guidance, especially along the northwest edge of the precip shield. Latest RGEM stays wet for the Lehigh Valley (0.2-0.3" of precip), NAM much drier. 3. Post-storm, I'm curious what the SLRs end up being. The NAMs are the most aggressive (no surprise) in some solid omega within the DGZ and also 850mb fronto, but mostly along and south of I-95 once the storm starts to get going a bit. I'm curious to compare 10:1 and Kuchera model maps to reality.

NAM in line with the Euro, obviously more amped because it's the NAM. But cut some of that QPF and it's a general 2-4" along the I-95 corridor. It's a shame this isn't coming 6-12 hours later for the Eagles game

Euro has been largely consistent in showing a general 2-4" for much of the Philly metro the past few runs with upwards of 5" in localized spots. Berks, Lehigh, Northampton probably 1-3" but this is one of those setups where you can get a strong fronto band on the NW side of the precip shield as the upper level jet shifts towards the area under the favorable right entrance region. I think the precip shield would actually expand a bit further northwest than what the Euro shows with isentropic glide along the frontal boundary as the TPV drops in from the north. However, that same TPV is pushing everything along and out to sea so it's a fine balance between the flow buckling and getting that precip shield to expand vs everything shunted east. Will have to watch the trends with the models, have to get a bit greater height rises ahead of this one

Glad you posted this as I came to check what others were getting SLR in the DMV region. Friend (who's also a met) from Leesburg sent me this a bit ago: "So I measured a measly 0.04" of melted precipitation at 845am, and another 0.01 at 1pm. So I grand total of 1.7" from 0.05". I felt like it doesn't make sense so I measured the melted precipitation from a core sample off the deck that was around 1.25 to 1.5" and it was just above .03", so I don't know ha" Seems like some real fluff up there today