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Scarlet Pimpernel

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Everything posted by Scarlet Pimpernel

  1. But would we really break out of the "snow drought" if we even get, say, 10-15" or so above normal at the main airport locations? It would be great for this year of course. But we all know that we'd need...how many years of +10" departures?...to "level things out." Not one season. And "last shot for awhile"...maybe so. Isn't that what we usually do around here? I know there are many factors involved, not the least of which is (I'll say it!!) climate change, which alters the overall landscape.
  2. Sometimes, I admit it's honestly gotten difficult to interpret some of the commentary in here and the mood at times. It's all what expectations are: is someone looking for an above average snow winter (not necessarily epic, but well above)...are they just looking to at least end up with better than the last few years with some decent events to track...or do they consider anything that's more than last winter is a win (the ultimate low bar)? I get that the ENSO state, etc., this year should lead (normally!) to an easily well above normal year for snow with plenty of opportunities. And if that doesn't happen, maybe on that level it would be a failure. But on the other hand, what if we end up with, say, something like 2014-15, or 2006-07...or even the "one hit wonder" 2015-16? Would we all be so upset? I don't know.
  3. OK, thanks...after I re-read your comment I realized you must be talking about next year and beyond. Sorry for the confusion on my part.
  4. Do you mean it literally shows ENSO trending to a Nina as winter progresses, or that it's becoming "Nina-like" in its behavior? Or, are you talking about next year, etc.?
  5. Serious (mostly) question here, since I don't look at the Euro weeklies really at all other than what I read in here. How accurate or useful are they? I'm not trying to be a homer here by suggesting "they look bad so they must not be accurate!" I'm being honest in what I ask. In the past, how many times have the weeklies shown drool-worthy patterns for several weeks, and it ends up crap anyhow as we got close in to that time? I know this has happened in previous years (maybe even last year at one point?). Of course the flip-side is assuming that they're spot on when they indicate a lousy pattern but dubious if they look good...but that's just me being cynical. In fact, I've noticed this for much of the sort of ultra-long-range models, how many times has it indicated a good trend that just doesn't happen? Is there something that isn't being picked up on in recent years? Again, maybe this is being biased on my part because of course we tend to better remember the times the forecast good patterns don't pan out.
  6. The medium-range thread looks like a disaster and the blinds are getting nervous that they may get soiled for weeks!
  7. Apparently, we're looking for the wrong kind of "snow" around here!!
  8. Wow, that's like the anti-Panic Room!
  9. Hey @psuhoffman, a bit late replying here, but I wanted to say thank you for clarifying that. And apologies if I interpreted what you said incorrectly. I understand what you mean here with "wall to wall winter" referring to a more persistent pattern that can produce a few (or several?) events, and that a Nino such as this year SHOULD do the same. Hopefully, at least! If the Pac background state isn't going to allow that, then, well...what can you do? And I agree, we're all hoping this Nino will give either longer or more frequent windows of opportunity to score, rather than us ending up with weeks of "shit the blinds" conditions! To your list of "just missed", I would be tempted to add 2006-07. More precisely, late Jan. into early Mar. 2007. I've always had a bit of a "soft spot" for that winter, even though we didn't exactly get a ton of snow. But we had a remarkably cold period through that time (especially Feb.), and as I've said several times, we JUST missed that storm around Valentines Day. The one that gave us 3" sleet and ice rather than a foot or more of snow. As it was, anything that did fall stayed on the ground for awhile (that sleet turned into an ice pack that hung around). We also got a decent clipper early that Feb. and another "mashed potatoes" like event near the end of that month.
  10. Sing it with me!!! It's the most dumliest time, of the year! There'll be much belly-aching, Clothes rended and hair-tearing, When snow-loving weenies are near! It's the most dumliest time, Yes the most dumliest time, Oh the most dumliest time, Of the year!
  11. Head for the Mountains!!! Made me recall these old Busch beer ads!
  12. FYP, since you didn't give a century value on those years! I may be optimistic there even with what I added! (But I hear the ultra extra mega crazy extended EPS/GEFS says 2230-31 will be rockin'! Bring it!!!)
  13. First, let me state that I totally agree with what you're saying here with all your overall ideas. And I truly believe that the Elephant In The Room Which Shall Not Be Named! is a good part of why we see these changes over the last couple or so decades. But I honestly don't think anyone is or should be looking for a "wall to wall snowy winter" around here. Even in the best years. The only truly "wall to wall" winter that I recall in my time here was 2013-14, and perhaps you could also argue 2002-03. 2009-10, for all it's record-breaking storms, was compressed into a week of December and a couple of weeks in late January into the first half of February. I know you're personally not expecting that, but I think there are those who do. I get it. The last several winters sucked, especially last year. Maybe it's truly all one's expectations. I like looking ahead to see what the pattern may look like, etc., but at times it honestly gets tiresome listening to so much gloom and doom ("OMG! December now sucks, can kicked to sometime in January, aaaaahhhhh!"). Again, I get that to an extent and I get frustrated as well...and I'm CERTAINLY NOT saying that you are doing this. I'm just using your comments as a springboard for mine, if I may. Will this winter just end up being crap despite what should have been a "background state" that normally would deliver consistently? Maybe. But as you say, that's a LARGER issue that deserves more discussion even if there are those who don't want to hear it. But just from a snow lover standpoint, if we get a "one and done" kind of thing like 2015-16, I wouldn't complain too much. Or if we're back-loaded like 2014-15 and other winters, where we get much of our winter in late Jan through Mar. Honestly, after last winter I almost don't much care at this point if we get the perfect pattern that delivers weeks and weeks of tracking (which would be difficult anyhow even in the best situation!). If something shows up, great. Give me some decent events and perhaps even a HECS tossed in there and I'm fine. Sorry, but after last winter's 0.5" snow for the season (that was gone before noon!) and consistently warm temperatures, I just figure you can't get much worse. There was literally NOTHING of interest that ever really appeared on the horizon last year. The most exciting thing was the brief Arctic blast around Christmas, and I got 15 minutes of flurries out of it that didn't even measure. As for your rather bullish forecast this season, I totally understand why you went that way. And in all honesty, as you well know especially here in the metro areas, we can get that level of snowfall in 2-3 events with nothing else. Just how it is around here.
  14. Rain just immediately evaporated before hitting the pavement in all that heat!!
  15. Looks like the PSU inch got larger!
  16. If models existed at that time, the Reconstruction Era snow weenies (if there were such a thing then!) would be running for the cliffs!
  17. "A (Palm) Tree Grows in Brooklyn"???
  18. I'm a little biased since I went to FSU for graduate school (witnessed the first infamous "wide right" game against Miami...ugh!!). But I'm not a homer about it and like you, I haven't paid as much attention to college football much over the years, unless a team I "like" is in a game. I also like Michigan, so hoping they will win it all now this year! (I say that as one who grew up in Ohio!). Anyhow, yeah, FSU had a rough game vs. Louisville, and they're "not the same" in many ways, perhaps, after losing their star QB Travis. And yet they still as a team managed win and close out undefeated. Plus, their defense has been amazing. They had to use their 3rd string QB in that game, since their backup behind Travis was also out on concussion protocol. He'd definitely be back by the time any bowl games occur, and he did a pretty good job overall in his start vs. UF. While FSU hypothetically may well have lost right away if they made the playoffs, I'm fairly sure it wouldn't be a total blowout given their defense and the fact that they'd at least have improved offense with their backup QB back in there. So I don't think it would be a "UGA-TCU" slaughter-fest.
  19. Yeah, that selection was a surprise. Obviously, Michigan and Washington were going to be #1 and #2. I think the reasoning of the committee, essentially weighing "FSU isn't the same team without their star QB", was a bit lame. An undefeated P5 team that wins their conference not getting in? FSU actually dropped one spot in the rankings? Just a bit odd... Alabama was not a surprise to me, that they got in, after upsetting UGA, after 2 seasons of UGA dominance. Personally, my own opinion (2 cents, all it's worth!)...if the committee was going to allow two 1-loss teams in the 4 team playoff as they did, they should have put Alabama or Texas as #3 and UGA as #4 in there. Yeah, UGA lost their conference championship, but it was by 3 points and the Bulldogs had a clearly dominant season. You could argue that despite the loss, they deserve to be in the final 4. That's no more nebulous reasoning than the committee's. I'm in NO way a UGA or SEC fan, far from it, but I think they're a better choice than both Alabama and Texas. And don't forget, Alabama had to rely on a last-minute lucky play to pull out their win vs. Auburn.
  20. Winter never happened. We Ji'd it right away so extended fall through March!
  21. I'm sure the Reaper @WxWatcher007 will take a fat percentage of those quadruple play packages...and income from the Jelly of the Month Club...as part of his retirement package!!! That was one of the greatest movie rants of all time, from National Lampoon's Christmas Vacation!!
  22. Somehow, I read that in the voice of the kid in "The Shining" when he said "Red Rum, Red Rum!"
  23. That very well could happen. I think the only reason FSU would be kept out is due to the fact that their quarterback situation is so uncertain after Jordan Travis got injured and out for the season. The thinking (such as it is) being that maybe FSU isn't "strong enough" to be in the top 4 due to that. While I can sort of possibly see that argument to an extent, I don't find it valid. Would you seriously take an undefeated team that was ranked #4 going into this weekend and actually DROP them one or two spots after they won their conference title game (albeit a rough, ugly win; their defense won it for them!) and after #1 Georgia lost theirs? Sure, FSU could get into the playoffs and get steamrolled in the first game (if they get in, I wouldn't be surprised if this scenario occurred!). But they earned a spot all the same...you should go by the record and who won their conference. Do we deny an NFL or MLB team or whomever a playoff spot that they clearly earned with their record, just because their star player had a season-ending injury and they "might not be as good"? I know, not the same as college football, but you get the idea.
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