Scarlet Pimpernel

Are we in Guy Fawkes ("Guys-Folks") territory????

Yup, our last "true" HECS event area-wide, in 2016.

I thought Jan. 22-23, there about, was mostly looking like temp issues already anyhow? And it's mostly just after that where the cold is more in place? (ETA: Though true, some previous cycles have shown that to be cold enough I believe).

Ha! Well, in this case since I'm not really expecting much of anything for the Sunday event, "Ellinwood Gray" is actually looking pretty good...relatively speaking!!!

We're on the Harry Potter Knight Bus...ahhhhhhhh!

I've had more interest in that time period (and/or just after that) than anything for this weekend. As I said earlier in this thread, different deterministic models (GFS, Euro, CMC, whatever) have on and off shown some kind of really good event in that time. Sometimes even extreme. And the ensembles have as well. Sure, it would disappear and reappear in the deterministic models from run to run (and Ji would complain if an ensemble mean snow map lost us an inch!!), but it's shown up somewhat regularly in that time frame.

Those things looked damned tasty!! Stouts at this time of year are perfect!

I'll go the Bilbo Baggins route for this one!... "I don't know half of you half as well as I should like; and I like less than half of you half as well as you deserve."

Is very bad to drink JI-bu's rum! Is very bad!

Related to this, you also didn't have all the various derived fields, etc., that these vendors now have.

Wow, that 18Z GFS was smoking something!! I want what it's having!! Even here in metro DC, a ton of sleet followed by 6-10" snow with temps in the teens or 20s?? Gimme that! But in all seriousness, I don't quite get a lot of the cynicism here. OK, ignoring what the GFS shows verbatim at this point (which on its face is ridiculous amounts)...the fact is, there has been indication of that type of setup over the past few days for that time frame across different models and ensembles. Hell, even the venerated Euro a couple of days ago showed basically double the amount of PD-2!! I know these are extremes unless this really starts showing up across all guidance and it gets closer. Again though, that time period around Jan. 23-26 has shown several possibilities now for a potential moderate-major overrunning event with cold air pressing in up top and then behind the system. That's my takeaway right now.

Wow...not even considering the surface, that's quite a change in the right direction at 500-mb! From a positively tilted trough to neutral, almost negative, and notably sharper. Not sure if it's occurring "too late", we'd probably need that farther west a tad, I would guess. Also, is that some hint of interaction with the closed center around northern Hudson Bay? Looks like "streamers" of vort coming down into the main trough of interest.

The old philosophical conundrum: If a thread is started in the middle of the night and nobody is aware of it, did it exist??

Getting back to the college football playoffs...I really hope IU wins, and even wins big and impressively vs. Miami. I say this as a Purdue grad too (only for this year's football championship...NOT basketball hahaha!)!!! Also, IU has an incredible team this year, they deserve it. But I just cannot deal with the Hurricanes winning a National Championship (saying that as an FSU grad, went there for grad school!), plus, regardless, gotta root for the Big 10 even if it is my alma mater's archrival!! (Heck, I rooted for UGA over Alabama a couple of years back, even having gone to Georgia Tech also in grad school...because my mantra is "ABB: Anybody But Bama!")

Could perhaps be interesting (maybe?) but it appears the NS and SS waves are too separated from each other and too positively tilted. But again, the RGEM way out in range so whatever.

Not sure if there are any specific papers or write-ups on these, but the two best examples of a "ULL event" I can think of would be the Feb. 9-10, 2010 storm and the Jan. 26, 2011 storm (perhaps the 2011 event more than Feb. 2010, though both involved that). But overall, my understanding is that it's related to the instability, cooling aloft, and banding that can set up with a strong ULL vort going through.

Anything about the @CAPE storm, on the Euro?

In the immortal words of the late, great Tom Lehrer, in his "Smut" song (@ravensrule might approve!): "Who needs a hobby, like tennis or philately? I've got a hobby...re-reading Lady Chatterley!"

Yeah, that's kind of how I feel. I'd prefer a better shot at an area-wide good amount than hoping things go JUST right so that one small area can score a foot. Not to say I'd be upset if this somehow turns into a general upper-level MECS event for all!!!

Sounds better than the weird looking evolution in the previous cycle or two. Maybe a bit more "stable" so to speak, rather than relying on some jacked-up unlikely scenario?

It took THAT for you to realize we're insane??

I checked the 00Z Euro out a short while ago after catching up in the medium range thread, just to see what people meant. Holy F**ing Shit, Batman!! That is like PD2 times 2 there! I am sure that's a wild extreme solution, but damn wouldn't it be nice to have something like that work out? Classic overrunning, almost non-stop, into a cold dome of high pressure. I wouldn't expect that level of a solution in reality, but hopefully it's a good sign for something good around that time frame. I believe the GFS and perhaps the CMC also hinted at that time period as well?