Scarlet Pimpernel

True...the trend is not a nice feeling. But being honest, the crazy, wacky amounts it was throwing out were not realistic. Perhaps it's converging to something more sensible? Well, that's the reasoning I'll cling to for now, haha! As you said, however, we should see the total precip (and snow) totals to get a better picture on the RGEM.

That's got to be the most bizarre looking closed contour around a low I've ever seen (992 off the coast)!!

I'm guessing this is how most of us felt about the 00Z NAM (inside, at least!)...

Not sure what you mean by improving slightly with each run? I thought the 12Z is when it first went crazy driving the dry slot much farther north than any other guidance, and seems even more so at 18Z. Not trying to be argumentative at all, but just curious what you meant. I'm interested too in the whole tracking the low along the convection rather than the coastal baroclinic zone.

That's awful! Glad you are OK, but what an asshat that guy was for the hit and run. Not to mention getting upset because you slowed down at a railroad crossing and were *gasp!* going the speed limit. Glad the damage to your vehicle might not be too horrible too.

All we need now is @showmethesnow and the homecoming of the triumvirate will be complete!

Hello Ian...welcome back! Omegherd, shneer!!

What the hell post was that one from?? ETA: The one where @Bob Chill returned yesterday afternoon?

Ohhh, looks freakin' tasty!!

As long as it wasn't bleach...

I don't think that's too bad for day 3...which is Monday into Tuesday right now. That covers what would be the coastal part of the storm. They have the 2nd level for potential impact, which is reasonable (it could certainly be impactful!). And the confidence is low...which sure, that makes sense right now, there's a lot of uncertainty for Monday-Tuesday at this point.

Yeah, I remember that Feb. 2007 storm and liked it as well. Admittedly, it was a bit disappointing because for some time it looked like a great widespread 12" or so snow event through the DC area. But even still, it was fun. I got ~3" sleet from that and maybe some glaze, and it did indeed turn into a block of ice for some time (it was very cold leading into that storm and then again after). I think areas just to the east of DC did get an appreciable ice storm from it. I've said this before, but I also actually liked the winter of 2006-07, though many think it was "meh". We just missed the Feb. 2007 event being something huge, sure, and it was warm up through about the 3rd week or so of January. But dayum...February was a frozen tundra! I think we also got a decent mixed event later in January too, leading into that pattern. And Feb. 25 was like a 5-6" paste job. Feb. 2015 (and into early March) was remarkably similar in many ways with the frigid cold, but we maxed out our potential a lot better!

It would be like Vector stealing the Great Pyramid of Giza, placing it in his backyard!!

It looks a little fuller, too.

Oy Gevalt, RGEM!!

Random question here that I've been meaning to ask for awhile. What really is the difference between the 10:1 and Kuchera methods? Well, obviously 10:1 is what it says (and it includes sleet). But does Kuchera take into account sleet, dryness of the snow, varying ratios over time, etc.?

Thanks, PSU, that's an excellent and clear delineation there.

A little late here on this question, but any indication how that snow is "distributed" between the initial WAA and CCB parts? Just curious.

OK, well...that's good to see after what the NAM just did. It's been kind of consistent overall, no? Not saying it's right, but maybe it's something. On to the globals now, I guess.

That's weird. Is there a limit on how many reactions one can give in a certain amount of time? Didn't realize that. Or a limit on how many times you can change it?

That 12-day stretch (Jan. 30-Feb. 10) was unreal. Four warning-level events, two of which were HECS-level (Jan. 30, Feb. 2, Feb. 5-6, Feb. 9-10). The most concentrated amount of snow in such a period that I've ever experienced.

Ha! All you need is to label everything with lettered regions that incoherently overlap with each other!

Totally can understand where you're coming from, Bob, and I think we can all respect that. Regardless of how much you want to say or analyze or report...your input here is always welcome at any level! Thanks for all the insight over the years, I really learned a lot just by reading, and I have always liked your attitude regardless of how bad or good our snow chances were. And HELL YEAHHHH...it's FOOKIN' happening! (required disclaimer: I hope so, anyhow, LOL!!)

Even the Reaper is getting all misty-eyed at the return of @Bob Chill!!