Scarlet Pimpernel

As long as it wasn't bleach...

I don't think that's too bad for day 3...which is Monday into Tuesday right now. That covers what would be the coastal part of the storm. They have the 2nd level for potential impact, which is reasonable (it could certainly be impactful!). And the confidence is low...which sure, that makes sense right now, there's a lot of uncertainty for Monday-Tuesday at this point.

Yeah, I remember that Feb. 2007 storm and liked it as well. Admittedly, it was a bit disappointing because for some time it looked like a great widespread 12" or so snow event through the DC area. But even still, it was fun. I got ~3" sleet from that and maybe some glaze, and it did indeed turn into a block of ice for some time (it was very cold leading into that storm and then again after). I think areas just to the east of DC did get an appreciable ice storm from it. I've said this before, but I also actually liked the winter of 2006-07, though many think it was "meh". We just missed the Feb. 2007 event being something huge, sure, and it was warm up through about the 3rd week or so of January. But dayum...February was a frozen tundra! I think we also got a decent mixed event later in January too, leading into that pattern. And Feb. 25 was like a 5-6" paste job. Feb. 2015 (and into early March) was remarkably similar in many ways with the frigid cold, but we maxed out our potential a lot better!

It would be like Vector stealing the Great Pyramid of Giza, placing it in his backyard!!

It looks a little fuller, too.

Oy Gevalt, RGEM!!

Random question here that I've been meaning to ask for awhile. What really is the difference between the 10:1 and Kuchera methods? Well, obviously 10:1 is what it says (and it includes sleet). But does Kuchera take into account sleet, dryness of the snow, varying ratios over time, etc.?

Thanks, PSU, that's an excellent and clear delineation there.

A little late here on this question, but any indication how that snow is "distributed" between the initial WAA and CCB parts? Just curious.

OK, well...that's good to see after what the NAM just did. It's been kind of consistent overall, no? Not saying it's right, but maybe it's something. On to the globals now, I guess.

That's weird. Is there a limit on how many reactions one can give in a certain amount of time? Didn't realize that. Or a limit on how many times you can change it?

That 12-day stretch (Jan. 30-Feb. 10) was unreal. Four warning-level events, two of which were HECS-level (Jan. 30, Feb. 2, Feb. 5-6, Feb. 9-10). The most concentrated amount of snow in such a period that I've ever experienced.

Ha! All you need is to label everything with lettered regions that incoherently overlap with each other!

Totally can understand where you're coming from, Bob, and I think we can all respect that. Regardless of how much you want to say or analyze or report...your input here is always welcome at any level! Thanks for all the insight over the years, I really learned a lot just by reading, and I have always liked your attitude regardless of how bad or good our snow chances were. And HELL YEAHHHH...it's FOOKIN' happening! (required disclaimer: I hope so, anyhow, LOL!!)

Even the Reaper is getting all misty-eyed at the return of @Bob Chill!!

Absolutely.

Sorry for the banter in a storm thread...but hopefully exceptions can be made with the Return of the Chill!

You'll be in the MoCo jackpot zone as always!! Good to see you Bob, thanks for stopping in!! I hope you are doing well these days.

Ugh...that feels painful just to read!! Glad you are recovering, and hope you can do some kind of phys therapy exercises now and then to keep it in decent shape. That's what I'm supposed to do (but am sadly highly negligent at times, which is on me!!). Having a decent day, yes, thank you! Any time there is a good chance of WSW criteria snow or better, I'm in a good mood at this time of year! I hope to have a chance to get some nice photos (photography is a hobby of mine), if we actually get a good event! Hope you're having a good day as well!

Sounds tasty! Having a glass of chilled chardonnay myself right now.

Hey, I totally empathize with back injuries! Or at least lower back pain. In my case it's a semi-chronic lower back issue (not an injury), partly my fault for not keeping the core strengthened as I should at times, and it can just go out on me upon occasion. Really debilitating, to the point tying shoes is a chore! Like it gets charley-horsed or tied in a knot, then it takes a few days to "untie". Ugh! But hey, guess I'm just gettin' old, so get off my lawn!!

That's definitely part of it. Also they're lower resolution and won't be able to show the more subtle features and/or thermals as well as the high-res deterministic counterparts. Ensembles are most useful beyond ~3 days. I might almost argue they're still of some use for a short while more for the second part of this event, with the coastal development, to get an idea of the low center spreads, etc. But we're on that fence of usefulness for that even now, as regional models are in range of it.

Give me 2.5-3 more shifts to get some more of that into the metro area too!

NAM still certainly looks to stay cold despite a period of sleet around the metro areas.