Scarlet Pimpernel

Absolutely.

Sorry for the banter in a storm thread...but hopefully exceptions can be made with the Return of the Chill!

You'll be in the MoCo jackpot zone as always!! Good to see you Bob, thanks for stopping in!! I hope you are doing well these days.

Ugh...that feels painful just to read!! Glad you are recovering, and hope you can do some kind of phys therapy exercises now and then to keep it in decent shape. That's what I'm supposed to do (but am sadly highly negligent at times, which is on me!!). Having a decent day, yes, thank you! Any time there is a good chance of WSW criteria snow or better, I'm in a good mood at this time of year! I hope to have a chance to get some nice photos (photography is a hobby of mine), if we actually get a good event! Hope you're having a good day as well!

Sounds tasty! Having a glass of chilled chardonnay myself right now.

Hey, I totally empathize with back injuries! Or at least lower back pain. In my case it's a semi-chronic lower back issue (not an injury), partly my fault for not keeping the core strengthened as I should at times, and it can just go out on me upon occasion. Really debilitating, to the point tying shoes is a chore! Like it gets charley-horsed or tied in a knot, then it takes a few days to "untie". Ugh! But hey, guess I'm just gettin' old, so get off my lawn!!

That's definitely part of it. Also they're lower resolution and won't be able to show the more subtle features and/or thermals as well as the high-res deterministic counterparts. Ensembles are most useful beyond ~3 days. I might almost argue they're still of some use for a short while more for the second part of this event, with the coastal development, to get an idea of the low center spreads, etc. But we're on that fence of usefulness for that even now, as regional models are in range of it.

Give me 2.5-3 more shifts to get some more of that into the metro area too!

NAM still certainly looks to stay cold despite a period of sleet around the metro areas.

Any particular reason it's so dry? That's even less than what it showed for 12Z.

Yeah, I was encouraged by the quasi-neutral look at ~72 hours. Then all of a sudden that closed 5H low opened up right over us and re-formed around south Jersey. Interestingly, it "expanded" southwest of there at the end of the loop you display.

Sounds like the joke my sister-in-law always uses...whenever someone asks "Now, where is that such-and-such" when you can't find something, she almost always replies, "if it were up your ass, you'd know!!" Which is true, of course!!

As George Takei would say, OH....MY!!

I wonder where the CCB will set up. Any indications yet?

You did indeed mention the legion of crews coming in to assist! They look like they mean some serious bid-nizzz!!! Oh, and I think there are modern medical treatments for premature jumping? Remember, if you feel like jumping for more than 4 hours, please contact your physician!!

We. Just. Don't. Know! Seems really uncertain at this time where the CCB will set up. But I did hear it's unclear where it will be at this point in time! (A message from your friendly neighborhood Department of Redundancy Department!)

Oh, hey! Look where that reddish patch is located!!! Knock me over with a feather!

Maybe (I definitely get the caution!!). But they're 5 hours ahead, so almost pub time on the other side of the pond!!

Cool...thanks! I'll have to bookmark them. I think their stuff also comes out faster too? There are times I see people discussing later forecast projections that I haven't even see show up on TT.

Thanks (moving this to Banter). Sorry if I gave incorrect credit, maybe both of you discussed that extension of the trough in New England. Unfortunately, I only see the coarser, 24-h Euro maps on TT, so rely on whatever I read or see in here for the more detailed analysis of the Euro. Which is why I asked.

Was that little "dip" over NY that the NAM displays also on the Euro? I think I recall someone mentioning something about that (perhaps @Wentzadelphia)?

Part of the problem is...people went ga-ga and got sucked in on a couple of huge runs from a couple of models (granted, the Euro did it too). So everyone was all giddy for a 12-24" event with a CCB crushing, almost half-ignoring the front end WAA snows. Nailing down the details of those transfers, as has been said many a time, is tricky business around here. I almost wonder what everyone would feel like right now if we were being shown a solid warning-level WAA event but there was a consistent "meh" on the CCB part here without some of the crazy runs. I bet it would be a lot less frantic and tense. I still think the coastal development phase is a bit up in the air right now.

Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious!! Now that's something quite atrocious!!

I cannot believe someone actually threw that word out in here. Seriously. Glad that post was removed.

I figured you probably were being a little snarky. And I agree, he's extremely smart and knows this s*it very well. I know some complain about his mini-dissertations, but I actually like his descriptions and the plots he shows...especially for the longer range pattern stuff. Plethora of information! But it can make people get very concerned when someone like him gets outwardly nervous, because he knows a lot.